1、o Technology Institute PwC analysis ODT 2.1 Analysis of market potential over the next 5 years STKSTK This report is confidential and cannot be provided to or shared with any third party without the prior written consent of PricewaterhouseCoopers. 27 Draft only ODT ODT: Future Market Overview Source
2、:Interviews with customers, competitors etc. China Auto Technology Institute PwC analysis The ODT are mainly used in the mining, water conservation, large quarry etc. since 1970s Western Development, South to North water transportation project etc will be carried out in the future years Market estim
3、ation : 10% growth rate in the next five years The fields which use ODT are limited and the market is relatively steady and mature in the past The future market will keep growing mainly due to the demand from some large projects The future market will be very possible to develop according to its pas
4、t performance 2.1 Analysis of market potential over the next 5 years STKSTK This report is confidential and cannot be provided to or shared with any third party without the prior written consent of PricewaterhouseCoopers. 28 Draft only ODT: Total market estimates 2002 - 2007 Amount of Sales Unit: ve
5、hicle CAGR 1996-2001: 2.3% Source:Interviews with customers, competitors etc. China Auto Technology Institute PwC analysis ODT Estimated CAGR 2002-2007: nearly 3% Based on the assumptions, total market sales could increase from nearly 295 in 2002 to 335 in 2007. 20032004200520062007 Total market 295
6、 305315325335 CAGR for total market 3% 2.1 Analysis of market potential over the next 5 years STKSTK This report is confidential and cannot be provided to or shared with any third party without the prior written consent of PricewaterhouseCoopers. 29 Draft only ODT: Market share forecast for JV 2003
7、- 2007 Source:Interviews with customers, competitors etc. China Auto Technology Institute PwC analysis ODT Amount of Sales Unit: vehicle Market Share of BHDTP (JV) Estimated Total ODT Market BHDTP Sales BHDTP Market Share 20032004200520062007 Total size295 305315325335 STKs own estimates110130120120
8、120 CAGR for JVs market size2% STKs estimates of JVs share of total market 37%43%38%37%36% 2.1 Analysis of market potential over the next 5 years STKSTK This report is confidential and cannot be provided to or shared with any third party without the prior written consent of PricewaterhouseCoopers. 3
9、0 Draft only Source:Interviews with customers, competitors etc. China Auto Technology Institute PwC analysis Total sales of ADT 1999 - 2001 Total market size estimates of ADT 2003 - 2007 JVs market size 2003 - 2007 Key factors affecting the JVs market share* Before 2000, the number of ADT was so sma
10、ll that it can be ignored Nearly all current products in the market are imported (except NHL) Key assumptionsKey assumptions Future market demand will rise as tChina Country Draught China Beer Market Plato Logic Limited turning market data into market intelligence Plato Logic Limited, England, Telep
11、hone: +44 (0) 1256 470610, Fax: +44 (0) 1256 330240, www.platologic.co.uk Plato Logic Limited, July 2002. Whilst every effort has been made in the preparation of this report to ensure accuracy of the statistical and other contents, Plato Logic Limited, its Directors and employees cannot accept any l
12、iability in respect of errors or omissions or for any losses or consequential losses arising from such errors or omissions. All rights reserved. This report is protected by copyright. No part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by means, electronic,
13、mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyright owners. Plato Logic Limited Country Draught Beer Reports Explanatory Notes for use with Acrobat PDF Country Draught Beer Reports Explanatory Notes for use with PDF file PDF electronic data files a
14、re available from Plato Logic when purchased with hard copy of each report. Individual Country Beer Reports Each Country has been bookmarked in line with the contents. There is a series of market statistics, followed by text and finally charts. To view bookmarks select Window, then Show Bookmarks Pl
15、ease note that the bookmark identifies the first sheet in the series. There may be several pages associated with each bookmark. For all pages: The Edit, Find facility allows interrogation of the file. For example: To find all references to Per Capita, type Per Capita in the Find box, then to find an
16、y further references enter Ctrl G to “Find Next”. For further information about working with Plato Logics data please refer to the Plato Logic User Handbook, which is available from us in PDF format: “Plato-Handbook.pdf” Plato Logic Limited, China Beer Market Report MARKET STATISTICS - SHEET 1.3 MAR
17、KET STATISTICS - BEER SEGMENTATION, PACKAGING/DISTRIBUTION.4 MARKET STATISTICS - TOP COMPANIES/GROUPS PRODUCTION.5 MARKET STATISTICS - PRODUCTION BY MAJOR PROVINCE.6 MARKET STATISTICS - OUTPUT BY REGION PRODUCTION COMPANY SHARES.1 GRAPH 3: IMPORTS BY REGION; IMPORTS FROM ASIA/PACIFIC.1 GRAPH 4: ANNU
18、AL CHANGE IN PRODUCTION.1 GRAPH 5: OUTPUT BY REGION, TOP PROVINCES.1 PLATO LOGIC LIMITED CHINA C O U N T R Y D R A U G H T THOUSANDS OF HL19921993199419951996199719981999200095-00%2001%vol2010F2015F PRODUCTION1012501225001395771545011631761866531987672098772231328%232480 EXPORTS562839110213096667155
19、48604844-8%835 as % of Production0.6%0.7%0.8%0.8%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.4%0.4% IMPORTS115411940143013401175940767829-10%599 as % of Consumption0.1%0.3%0.7%0.9%0.8%0.6%0.5%0.4%0.4%0.3% CONSUMPTION100803122072139415154622163850187113199159 2100402231178%232244359001417288 Consumption Growth year-on-year24.
20、6%21.1%14.2%10.9%6.0%14.2%6.4%5.5%6.2%4.1% POPULATION m.1183.61196.41208.81221.51236.71251.541266.561281.761297.11%1302.31353.31391.0 Popn 15+872.3881.7890.9900.2917.6928.6939.8953.6966.41%976.71070.51112.8 PER CAPITA TOTAL8.510.211.512.713.215.015.716.417.26%17.826.530.0 Per Capita 15+11.613.815.61
21、7.217.920.121.222.023.16%23.833.537.5 MARKET VALUE in bn. yuan (industry)121519222428313436 Wines since 94 Hofbru brewed under license Laizhou (Shandong)1991No HolstenFirst licence since 1990 with Shenzhen Brewery in Shenzhen terminated end-95. Licence with Jilin Songyuan (until end-98) Licence with
22、 Guilin Lichuan (Jilin)June 94Jan 97 1998 InterbrewZhu Jiang Brewery (j-v to brew Stella, and market in China, HK and Macao) New plant with 4mhl capacity (j-v Interbrew and Zhu Jiang each 45%, Hamdex 10%) MoU to acquire 25% stake on listing in 2003. Guangzhou (Guangdong) July 9445% (2)Jinling Brewer
23、y Jiangsu9/9780% (3)Nanjing brewery, to be merged with Jinling Jiangsu12/9780% KirinAgreement with Nan Lien Trading Co., Taiwan to market Kirin in Guangzhou and Shanghai Spring95 (2)Licencing agreement with China Resources (Shenyang) Snowflake Brewery Contract terminated 12/98 June 95 Plato Logic Li
24、mited, JULY 2002China Page 25 BrewerBrewery Location Town/(province) AnnouncedStakeActive Kirin (2a)Marketing agreement with Kerry Group and Mitsubishi Corp (for beer brewed at Shenyang). Early 96 (3)J-v with President Enterprises to build new 600khl brewery, Zhuhai Kirin President; to brew Kirin Gu
25、angdongOct. 9660% KaltenbergTechnical co-operation agreement with Wuming, licence to follow. Shandong2000 Lion Nathan (NOW 45% KIRIN) Stake taken in j-v company that owns Taihushui Brewery in Wuxi (Yangtse Delta), capacity 600khl, expanded to 1.2mhl Wuxi (Greater Shanghai) May9580% (2)Greenfield 2mh
26、l brewery at SuzhouSuzhou (Greater Shanghai) June 96100% Lion Group (Chocolate Products, Malaysia) 9 regional breweries in 5 provinces Miller Brewing Inc.Agreement signed with ASIMCO, a Beijing investment company to acquire majority stake in Five Star Beer Group Ltd. and Three Ring Beer Company Stak
27、e disposed 2000 Spring95 Asimco 60% of which Miller 10% Minnesota BrewingJ-v with Zhengzhou Gold Star Beer Factory, brew Landmark (Henan)1993 Noble China Inc., Toronto others include Zhuang, Uygur, Hui, Yi, Tibetan, Miao, Manchu, Mongol, Buyi, and Korean. Plato Logic Limited, July 2002ChinaPage 34 B
28、eer Market Consumption Trends Traditional beverage consumption patterns reflect the agricultural economy with tea being the beverage with the highest per capita, around 40-45 litres. Green tea represents a high proportion of all tea consumed. Rice wine and fruit wines are also popular, especially in
29、 rural areas. Carbonated soft drinks consumption is still relatively low at around 10 litres per capita. A local cola is produced, while both Pepsi and Coca-Cola are now widely available in China. Beer per capita is still low, reaching 10 litres in 1993, and 17.8 litres in 2001. Consumption increase
30、d at an average 10% per annum from 1993-98, but growth has been slowing down as the economy has been checked. Volume growth in 1995 was 11% and in 1996 just 6%, the lowest level for 7 years, and despite a sharp increase of 14% again in 1997, grew by just 6.4% in 1998 and 5.5% in 1999. In 2000 the ma
31、rket achieved slightly higher growth, but at 6.2% was still single- digit. In 2001 volumes reached 232.4mhl and China has therefore further consolidated its status as the worlds second largest beer market. However, growth of only 4% was the slowest for many years and China therefore just failed to o
