1、ears total number of travelers based on the assumption that international travelers accounts for 16.5% of the total number of travelers. 3 LongDistance Transportation Spend (%) from Travelers Spending Breakdown in SZ in 2000 will be used as proxy and applied to Years 1995-2000 to exclude Long Distan
2、ce Transportation Spend. 2.3 Forecast AAHK Passenger and Cargo Volume Increase Forecast AAHK Estimated Increase in Passenger and Cargo Volume (Tons)PAX (Low Estimate)PAX (High Estimate)Cargo (Low Estimate)Cargo (High Estimate) 2003380,000770,00017,00026,000 20041,040,0002,090,000104,000156,000 20052
3、,280,0004,560,000124,000187,000 20063,740,0007,480,000149,000224,000 20075,450,0008,180,000179,000269,000 20085,860,0008,790,000194,000291,000 20096,300,0009,450,000210,000315,000 20106,770,00010,150,000228,000341,000 20117,270,00010,910,000246,000370,000 20127,810,00011,720,000267,000400,000 20138,
4、390,00012,590,000289,000434,000 20149,020,00013,530,000313,000470,000 20159,650,00014,480,000339,000509,000 201610,330,00015,490,000367,000551,000 201711,050,00016,570,000398,000597,000 201811,820,00017,730,000431,000646,000 201912,650,00018,980,000466,000700,000 202013,540,00020,300,000505,000758,0
5、00 Accumulated Total133,350,000203,770,0004,826,0007,244,000 3.0 Flight Increase Shenzhen Airport Passegner and Cargo Volume Increase Estimation The Following Estimations will Be Scenario Based Most Common Aircraft Use in Shenzhen AirportPAX CapacityCargo CapacityChina Average International Passenge
6、r Flight PAX Load Factor B737-30013215China Average International Passenger Flight Cargo Load Factor B757-20020022.9 B737-50013015.5 A320-20017919.7 Average PAX Capacity16018.3 Common All Cargo Wide-Body Aircraft Use in ChinaCargo Capacity Yun-7 (All Cargo)4.7 Average Load Per Flight (Use Hong Kong
7、as Benchmark) Average Passenger Flight PAX Load Factor (68.4%)110Source: AAHK 2001 Average Passenger Flight Belly Cargo Load Ratio (Tons) (34%)6.2Source: Accenture Previous Study 2003-2007 Average All Cargo Flight Cargo Load Ratio (Tons) (70%)3.3Source: Accenture Previous Study 2003-2007 Cargo Ship
8、via All Cargo Flight Share of Shenzhen Airport2003200420052006 Assume All Cargo Share %10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% 2007200820092010 10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% 2011201220132014 10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% 2015201620172018 10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0% 20192020 10.0%10.0% AAHK Estimated Increase in Passenger and Cargo Volume (Ton
9、s)PAX (Low Estimate)PAX (High Estimate) Cargo (Low Estimate) Cargo (High Estimate) 2003380,000770,00017,00026,000 20041,040,0002,090,000104,000156,000 20052,280,0004,560,000124,000187,000 20063,740,0007,480,000149,000224,000 20075,450,0008,180,000179,000269,000 20085,860,0008,790,000194,000291,000 2
10、0096,300,0009,450,000210,000315,000 20106,770,00010,150,000228,000341,000 20117,270,00010,910,000246,000370,000 20127,810,00011,720,000267,000400,000 20138,390,00012,590,000289,000434,000 20149,020,00013,530,000313,000470,000 20159,650,00014,480,000339,000509,000 201610,330,00015,490,000367,000551,0
11、00 201711,050,00016,570,000398,000597,000 201811,820,00017,730,000431,000646,000 201912,650,00018,980,000466,000700,000 202013,540,00020,300,000505,000758,000 Accumulated Total133,350,000203,770,0004,826,0007,244,000 Estimated Increase in No. of Flight Required for PAX DemandPAX (Low Estimate) PAX (
12、High Estimate) 20033,4677,025 20049,48819,067 200520,80141,602 200634,12168,241 200749,72174,628 200853,46280,193 200957,47686,214 201061,76492,600 201166,32599,534 201271,252106,924 201376,543114,861 201482,291123,437 201588,039132,104 201694,242141,318 2017100,811151,171 2018107,836161,754 2019115
13、,408173,158 2020123,528185,200 Estimated Cargo Volume (Tons) via PAX Flight Belly and All CargoBelly (Low)Belly (High)All Cargo (Low)All Cargo (High) 200315,30023,4001,7002,600 200493,600140,40010,40015,600 2005111,600168,30012,40018,700 2006134,100201,60014,90022,400 2007161,100242,10017,90026,900
14、2008174,600261,90019,40029,100 2009189,000283,50021,00031,500 2010205,200306,90022,80034,100 2011221,400333,00024,60037,000 2012240,300360,00026,70040,000 2013260,100390,60028,90043,400 2014281,700423,00031,30047,000 2015305,100458,10033,90050,900 2016330,300495,90036,70055,100 2017358,200537,30039,
15、80059,700 2018387,900581,40043,10064,600 2019419,400630,00046,60070,000 2020454,500682,20050,50075,800 Estimated Increase in No. of Flight Required for Cargo DemandBelly (Low)Belly (High)All Cargo (Low)All Cargo (High) 20032,4623,766517790 200415,06422,5963,1614,742 200517,96127,0863,7695,684 200621
16、,58232,4454,5296,809 200725,92738,9645,4418,176 200828,10042,1505,8978,845 200930,41845,6266,3839,574 201033,02549,3926,93010,365 201135,63253,5937,47711,246 201238,67457,9388,11612,158 201341,86062,8638,78413,191 201445,33768,0789,51414,286 201549,10373,72710,30415,471 201653,15879,81011,15516,748
17、201757,64986,47312,09718,146 201862,42993,57013,10019,635 201967,498101,39214,16421,277 202073,147109,79315,35023,040 3.1 Airport Rev. PAX Flight Airport Revenue For Domestic Passenger Flights Services Airport Revenue For Domestic Passenger Flights Services10,484.8 Approaching, Landing, and Parking
18、Charges Estimation Average Approaching, Landing, and Parking Charges Per Arriving Flight1,077.3 Calculations: Total Approaching, Landing, and Parking Charges in 2000RMB40,000,000 Total Arriving Flights37,129 Assumptions: 1) The approaching, landing, and parking charges is provided by AAHK. SZ Airpor
19、t Fueling Service Revenue Estimation Average Fueling Service Revenue Per Arriving Flight32.9 Calculations: Aviation Fueling Service Charging Scheme (Excluding Fuel Cost)ChannelCharge (RMB / Ton) Via Truck6 Via Pipe5 Average5.5 Total Fueling Service RevenueYearFuel Consumption (Ton)Revenue 2000201,8071,109,939 Average Fueling Service Revenue Per Arriving FlightY
