1、 Bulk Commodities Forecasts Price forecasts include war and Covid premium Diversified Metals & Mining | Connections Series We have lifted bulks price forecasts aggressively due to the Ukraine war (thermal coal, iron ore & PCI) and Chinas zero Covid policy (coking coal). The environment is complex, w
2、ith potential energy shortages in Europe over Russia policies, imminent Fed tightening to battle soaring inflation, while China is trying to stimulate using infrastructure, but hampered by lockdowns to battle Covid outbreaks. Growth threats are numerous, but energy (coal) and seaborne iron ore price
3、s should be resilient to a US-EU contraction. Figure 1: Revised iron ore, met coal and thermal coal price forecasts 1Q-22 2Q-22 3Q-22 4Q-22 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E LT(real) Iron ore fines New US$/dmt 142 155 150 140 147 130 100 85 75 75 62% Fe Old US$/dmt 142 125 100 100 117 95 90 75 76 75 Chi
4、na CFR Chg % 0% 24% 50% 40% 26% 37% 11% 13% -1% 0% Met coal New US$/t 477 480 480 420 464 350 305 250 200 160 HCC (PLV) Old US$/t 477 350 290 240 339 200 180 180 180 160 FOB Aust. Chg % 0% 37% 66% 75% 37% 75% 69% 39% 11% 0% Semi soft coal New US$/t 275 333 333 291 308 266 235 188 140 105 ULV-PCI coa
5、l New US$/t 300 380 404 353 359 298 259 200 150 120 Thermal coal New US$/t 265 270 280 280 274 250 230 175 125 75 Ncastle 6000kc Old US$/t 265 170 150 160 186 120 110 90 89 75 FOB Aust. Chg % 0% 59% 87% 75% 47% 108% 109% 94% 41% 0% Hi-ash 5500kc New US$/t 211 210 210 210 210 175 160 125 80 62 Source
6、: Credit Suisse estimates, Fastmarkets, McCloskey Iron ore is back in deficit due to the Ukraine war, and low output by the big 3 producers on operational issues including Covid and rain. The EU and US need to increase blast furnace output by 10Mtpa to cover the loss of Russia/Ukraine slab imports,
7、but iron ore exports from Russia and Ukraine may be lower by ca.40Mt. China steel output may be level YoY if Beijings urgency to restart economic growth eases Covid logistic logjams. Coking coal should repeat 2021, with tightness caused by Chinas Covid rules restricting Mongolian supply. We expect C
8、hina will again have to offer high prices for US and Canadian premium low-volatile coking coal to meet its domestic shortfall. In a tight market this should lift global prices. China could limit this difficulty by lifting its zero-Covid policy perhaps by summer 2023. And import bans on Russian coal
9、should elevate PCI prices. High coal prices can be sustained as anti-coal activism prevents a supply response. We expect thermal coal prices to be high across the forecast period following LNG as Europe moves to end reliance on Russia for energy supplies. Europe will need more LNG imports, requiring
10、 higher prices to fund investment in expanded liquefaction plants. Extreme spot LNG pricing is causing gas to coal switching. EU & Japan can end Russian coal imports only because China is lifting its domestic output by 300Mtpa, which should displace imports. However, ending of Russian supply should
11、create a scarcity of high-energy thermal coal, so Newcastle coal with high-energy should command a premium. 4 May 2022 Equity Research Asia Pacific | Australia DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATU
12、S OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this repor
13、t as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Research Analysts Matthew Hope 61 2 8205 4669 matthew.hopecredit- Carsten Riek 44 20 7883 9672 carsten.riekcredit- Danielle Chigumira 44 20 7883 2835 danielle.chigumiracredit- Saul Kavonic 61 2 8205 4253 saul.kavoniccredit- Matt Greene 6
14、1 2 8205 4507 matt.greenecredit- Peter Li 852 2101 6320 peter.licredit- Prateek Singh 91 22 6777 3894 prateek.singhcredit- Timothy Handerson 62 21 2553 7933 timothy.handersoncredit- Curt Woodworth, CFA 212 325 5117 curt.woodworthcredit- Fahad Tariq, CPA, CA 416 352 4593 fahad.tariqcredit- Paworamon
15、(Poom) Suvarnatemee, CFA 66 2 614 6210 paworamon.suvarnatemeecredit- 每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。 4 May 2022 Bulk Commodities Forecasts 2 Focus tables Figure 2: Revised bulks price forecasts 2021 1Q-22 2Q-22 3
16、Q-22 4Q-22 2022E 1Q-23 2Q-23 3Q-23 4Q-23 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E LT (real) Iron ore dry CFR New US$/t, dry 161 142 155 150 140 147 140 130 130 120 130 100 85 75 75 Fines, 62% Fe Old US$/t, dry 161 142 125 100 100 117 100 100 90 90 95 90 75 76 75 Chg % 0% 0% 24% 50% 40% 26% 40% 30% 44% 33% 37% 11% 13
17、% -1% 0% Fines, 58% New US$/t, dry 136 120 135 126 113 124 118 109 112 103 111 87 74 67 65 58% Fe low Al Old US$/t, dry 136 120 102 84 84 98 87 87 78 78 83 79 65 66 65 Chg % 0% 0% 32% 50% 35% 27% 36% 25% 44% 32% 34% 11% 14% 1% 0% Fines, 65% Fe New US$/t, dry 186 170 182 176 164 173 161 150 150 138 1
18、50 115 98 89 86 Old US$/t, dry 186 170 145 115 115 136 115 115 104 104 110 104 86 88 86 Chg % 0% 0% 26% 53% 43% 27% 40% 30% 44% 33% 37% 11% 14% 1% 0% Hard coking coal New US$/t 224 477 480 480 420 464 375 375 325 325 350 305 250 200 160 (Prime low-vol) Old US$/t 224 477 350 290 240 339 200 200 200 2
19、00 200 180 180 180 160 Chg % 0% 0% 37% 66% 75% 37% 88% 88% 63% 63% 75% 69% 39% 11% 0% Hard coking coal New US$/t 225 479 475 475 415 461 415 375 325 325 360 305 250 200 158 (prime mid-vol) Old US$/t 225 479 355 295 245 344 245 200 200 200 211 180 180 180 158 Semi soft coal New US$/t 138 275 333 333
20、291 308 281 281 250 250 266 235 188 140 105 Old US$/t 138 275 249 207 172 226 140 140 140 140 140 126 126 124 105 Chg % 0% 0% 34% 61% 69% 36% 101% 101% 79% 79% 90% 87% 49% 13% 0% Relativity % HCC 62% 58% 69% 69% 69% 66% 75% 75% 77% 77% 76% 77% 75% 70% 66% ULV-PCI coal New US$/t 152 300 380 404 353 3
21、59 319 319 276 276 298 259 200 150 120 Old US$/t 152 300 266 221 184 243 150 150 150 150 150 135 135 134 120 Chg % 0% 0% 43% 83% 92% 48% 113% 113% 84% 84% 98% 92% 48% 12% 0% Relativity % HCC 68% 63% 79% 84% 84% 77% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 80% 75% 75% Thermal coal New US$/t 135 265 270 280 280 274 25
22、0 250 250 250 250 230 175 125 75 Newcastle FOB Old US$/t 135 265 170 150 160 186 120 120 120 120 120 110 90 89 75 6000kcal Chg % 0% 0% 59% 87% 75% 47% 108% 108% 108% 108% 108% 109% 94% 41% 0% High-ash FOB New US$/t 91 211 210 210 210 210 175 175 175 175 175 160 125 80 62 5500kcal Old US$/t 91 211 11
23、0 100 100 130 70 70 70 70 70 70 60 61 62 Chg % 0% 0% 91% 110% 110% 61% 150% 150% 150% 150% 150% 129% 108% 31% 0% Source: Fastmarkets, McCloskey, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 3: Revised Freight forecasts 2021 1Q-22 2Q-22 3Q-22 4Q-22 2022E 1Q-23 2Q-23 3Q-23 4Q-23 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E LT (real) Ca
24、pesize - WA to China New US$/t 11.9 9.2 10.0 12.0 12.0 10.8 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 15 Old US$/t 13.7 22.0 20.0 16.0 13.0 17.8 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 14.0 15.0 15.2 15 Chg % -13% -58% -50% -25% -8% -39% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0% Capesize - Brazil to China New US$/t 26.5 22.8 25.0
25、25.0 25.0 24.4 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 27.0 33.0 33.0 33 Old US$/t 30.7 50.0 45.0 23.0 23.0 35.3 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 30.0 33.0 33.0 33 Chg % -14% -54% -44% 9% 9% -31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 0% Handysize - Aust to China New US$/t 42.1 29.3 35.0 35.0 30.0 32.3 25.0 25 25 25 25.0 27.0 30.0 31.0
26、 30 Old US$/t 45.1 40.0 40.0 35.0 25.0 35.0 25.0 25 25 25 25.0 27.0 30.0 30.3 30 Chg % -7% -27% -13% 0% 20% -8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11% 0% 2% 0% Source: SSY, Fastmarkets, Credit Suisse estimates 4 May 2022 Bulk Commodities Forecasts 3 Table of Contents Demand environment for bulk commodities 5 Steel grow
27、th in our forecasts 6 Considering the downside to demand from energy, Fed 6 Considering upside to forecasts on monetary considerations 7 Beijing needs strong GDP growth, which means steel 8 Beijings economic concerns are mounting 11 Property sector challenges 11 Chinas Covid lockdown challenges 12 I
28、nfrastructure to drive GDP 12 Will China steel production peak in 2025 or earlier? 13 Chinas EAF output low on scrap and power prices 14 Chinas Economic Indicators 15 Mark-to-market price forecast adjustments 18 Freight Rate adjustments 18 Seaborne iron ore forecasts 19 Tighter iron ore due to Ukrai
29、ne-Russia war . 19 Iron ore price looking through China weakness . 20 Iron ore port stocks fall as deficit bites 21 Iron ore scenario testing with peak steel in 2025 21 Scrap use soft as EAF look unprofitable 22 China domestic mine supply climbed in 2021 23 Less supply from ROW Miners 24 Grade disco
30、unts 27 Export metallurgical coal forecasts 29 Chinas zero-Covid policy to support global prices . 29 Chinas needs PLV imports, but supply is scarce . 30 Chinas domestic PLV reserves are depleted 31 Price decline may begin in mid-2023 31 Russian met coal loss for Europe is not China & India gain 32
31、Russian met coal supply to other regions 33 Cash costs far below the met coal price 34 Export thermal coal forecasts 36 Premium for high-energy coal following Russian ban . 36 Coal was tight even before the Ukraine invasion . 37 Sufficient coal production to cover the Russian ban 38 High energy coal
32、 scarcity 39 4 May 2022 Bulk Commodities Forecasts 4 Who would buy Russian coal? 40 Would a loss of Russian gas exhaust coal supply? 41 Germany energy usage 41 Elsewhere in Europe coal-fired plants under review 43 Germanys nuclear dilemma 43 Export thermal coal production 44 Cash costs far below the
33、 coal price 45 4 May 2022 Bulk Commodities Forecasts 5 Demand environment for bulk commodities Steel production revised up for raw material importers Global steel production in 2021 recovered strongly from the pandemic afflicted 2020, but in dominant producer China, it was a year of two halves with
34、record output in 1H21 giving way in 2H on government measures to curb steel demand. The governments financial restrictions on developers led to a property crisis, with sales and new starts continuing to fall. And from September, China faced an energy crisis on a shortage of coal and had to lift all
35、curbs on coal mining to drastically accelerate production. China is critically important for seaborne iron ore, and while it is not as reliant on imported coal, its demand changes move coal markets as it tends to be the price-maker. The China situation is complex, with the government trying to reinv
36、igorate GDP growth with infrastructure at the same time as battling a Covid outbreak with widespread lockdowns. We have trimmed our China steel production forecast by 10Mt from our previous estimate, but maintain a positive outlook. Globally, the Ukraine war has had a major impact on energy prices.
37、Oil and LNG prices have risen globally, taking coal prices with them, and sanctions on imports of Russian coal by developed countries are exacerbating the tightness. Energy inflation is driving up PPI and contributing to growing CPI, which may slow goods demand. However, the war has also stopped abo
38、ut 10Mtpa of steel exports from Russia and Ukraine, so the EU and US will have to lift steel output to fill the gap. Our global steel forecast has strong growth for these regions. Figure 4: Base case global steel production forecast used for iron ore and metallurgical coal demand forecasts Mt 2015 2
39、016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f China 804 808 832 928 1001 1065 1033 1037 1031 983 935 900 EU 27+UK 166 162 168 167 157 139 160 165 178 183 184 187 NAFTA 111 111 115 121 120 101 118 139 145 151 153 154 India 89 95 101 109 111 100 118 118 121 126 132 138 Japan 105 105 105 1
40、04 99 83 96 93 94 94 94 94 S Korea 70 69 71 72 71 67 71 72 72 73 74 75 Taiwan 21 22 22 23 22 21 24 24 25 25 25 25 Vietnam 6 8 11 14 18 28 33 36 38 39 41 43 Russia 71 71 71 71 72 73 76 69 73 77 78 81 Ukraine 23 24 21 21 21 21 24 2 16 18 22 26 Turkey 32 33 38 37 34 36 40 40 40 40 40 40 Brazil 33 31 34
41、 35 33 31 36 38 38 39 39 39 RoW 94 93 144 124 116 116 124 121 132 137 142 135 Global Total 1625 1632 1735 1826 1875 1880 1953 1954 2003 1985 1959 1937 YoY -2.9% 0.4% 6.3% 5.2% 2.7% 0.3% 3.9% 0.1% 2.5% -0.9% -1.3% -1.1% World ex-China 821 824 903 898 874 815 920 917 972 1002 1024 1037 YoY -3.6% 0.3%
42、9.7% -0.6% -2.7% -6.8% 12.9% -0.3% 6.0% 3.1% 2.2% 1.3% China -2.2% 0.6% 2.9% 11.6% 7.9% 6.4% -3.0% 0.4% -0.6% -4.7% -4.9% -3.7% EU 27 + UK -1.8% -2.5% 4.0% -0.9% -6.0% -11.5% 15.1% 3.1% 7.9% 2.8% 0.5% 1.6% NAFTA -8.3% 0.0% 3.6% 5.2% -0.8% -15.8% 16.6% 18.0% 4.3% 4.1% 1.3% 0.7% India 2.0% 7.3% 6.2% 7
43、.4% 1.8% -9.9% 18.1% -0.1% 2.5% 4.1% 4.8% 4.5% Japan -5.0% -0.3% 0.2% -1.0% -4.8% -16.2% 16.0% -3.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% S Korea -2.6% -1.6% 3.6% 1.4% -0.8% -6.0% 5.2% 2.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Taiwan -7.8% 1.7% 3.2% 2.5% -4.3% -6.5% 14.2% 2.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Vietnam 0.0% 33.3% 37.5% 27.3% 25.0%
44、 60.0% 18.9% 8.1% 5.6% 2.6% 5.1% 4.9% Russia 0.3% -0.1% 1.0% -0.7% 1.4% 1.4% 4.1% -9.2% 5.8% 5.5% 1.3% 3.8% Ukraine -15.6% 5.4% -11.9% -1.6% 0.0% -1.9% 16.5% -91.7% 700.0% 12.5% 22.2% 18.2% Turkey -7.3% 5.2% 13.1% -1.4% -8.6% 6.5% 12.2% -1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Brazil -1.9% -6.0% 9.9% 1.9% -5.7% -6
45、.1% 16.1% 5.6% 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% RoW -2.9% -1.8% 55.9% -14.0% -6.2% -0.5% 7.3% -2.6% 9.1% 3.8% 3.6% -4.9% Source: WSA, NBS, Customs data, Credit Suisse estimates 4 May 2022 Bulk Commodities Forecasts 6 Steel growth in our forecasts Strong growth for ex-China crude steel output as trade flow dimini
46、shes Our steel teams forecasts for ex-China crude steel production include a 0.3% decline in 2022 largely driven by Ukraine & Russia, and 6% growth in 2023, again driven by these two countries together with the EU, North America and RoW. (Figure 4). Behind our steel teams growth forecast for the EU
47、and US is the expectation that these countries have to replace the crude steel that used to be exported from Ukraine and Russia with domestic production 6.5Mtpa for the EU and 3-4Mt for the US. Most of this will need to be blast furnace-based due to cost imposts for scrap and energy since the Ukrain
48、e conflict began have made further EAF output untenable. The forecasts also take into account that consumption in the EU and the US in 2021 was much higher than production, due to heavy imports. EU apparent consumption in 2021 was 178Mt, 18Mt ahead of production, and North America apparent consumpti
49、on was 164Mt, 46Mt greater than output. CS steel teams forecast expects domestic production to lift over the next couple of years in the EU and US while trade flows diminish, from Russia Ukraine and China. Considering the downside to demand from energy, Fed High energy prices mean high coal, while s
50、eaborne iron ore is focused on China Many global investors are concerned about a global economic downturn and perhaps even stagflation, particularly due to US inflation and high energy prices. With US inflation reaching 8.5% YoY, the Federal Reserve intends to swiftly hike interest rates this year t
