经济学人-2019-03-30.pdf

MARCH 30THAPRIL5TH 2019Bibi Netanyahu:parable of a populistLessons of the Mueller reportInside the crypto fiascoGiving art back to AfricaTheSillyIslesBrexit after May每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享7+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报、金融时报；3、每周分享经济学人4、行研报告均为公开版，权利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫二维码关注公号回复：研究报告加入“起点财经”微信群。The Economist March 30th 20195Contents continues overleaf1ContentsThe world this week9A summary of politicaland business newsLeaders13Brexit after MayThe Silly Isles14King BibiA parable of modernpopulism16The world economyInversions and aversions16American politicsTrump resurgent18Museums and protestsCulture vulturesLetters22On Chernobyl,the Irish,councils,Tom Watson,energy,China,Brexit,first classBriefing25Binyamin NetanyahuStatesman and schemerBritain29Parliament and Brexit30Public opinion32Newport s by-election32Manchester s health 33The hubris of Brexit34The minimum wage at 2036Bagehot The end of MayEurope37Germany s strugglingSocial Democrats38Ukraine votes39A new Dutch party39Erdoganomics40Among the gilets jaunes42Charlemagne Thespectre of Airstrip OneUnited States43The Mueller report45Gerrymandering45Jared Polis46Anti-vaxxers47California s housing48Lexington William Barr,executive assistantThe Americas49A graft-buster forpresident in Guatemala50Of wine and wisdom51Bello Brazil s presidentMiddle East&Africa52Mozambique s floods53Rwanda s genocide54Ethnic labels in Rwanda54Ageing Arab bureaucratsSchumpeter Japan toyswith shareholdercapitalism just as theWest gets cold feet,page 72On the coverTheresa Mays promise toresign does nothing to solveBritains Brexit mess:leader,page 13.It marks theculmination of her steady lossof control over the process,page 29.The end of May:Bagehot,page 36 Bibi Netanyahu:parable of apopulist In Israel,as elsewhere,politics is a perplexing mix ofsound policy and the cynicalerosion of institutions:leader,page 14.Victory in theforthcoming elections wouldmark another success for hisdivisive politics:briefing,page 25 Lessons of the Mueller reportLeader,page 16.Donald Trumpand his supporters claimvindication,but it may not proveas deflating for Democrats as itseems,page 43 Inside the crypto fiasco Therise and fall of cryptocurrencieshas revealed flaws that make alasting revival unlikely,page 73 Giving art back to AfricaThe case for returning stolen artis strong.For refusing tainteddonations,less so:leader,page 18.How austerity andoutreach made museums atarget for protesters,page 62Registeredasanewspaper.2019TheEconomistNewspaperLimited.Allrightsreserved.Neitherthispublicationnoranypartofitmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recording or otherwise,without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited.Published every week,except for a year-end double issue,by The Economist Newspaper Limited.The Economistis aregistered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited.Printed by Walstead Peterborough Limited.6ContentsThe Economist March 30th 2019PEFC/16-33-582PublishedsinceSeptember1843to take part in“a severe contest between intelligence,which presses forward,and an unworthy,timid ignoranceobstructing our progress.”Editorial offices in London and also:Amsterdam,Beijing,Berlin,Brussels,Cairo,Chicago,Johannesburg,Madrid,Mexico City,Moscow,Mumbai,New Delhi,New York,Paris,San Francisco,So Paulo,Seoul,Shanghai,Singapore,Tokyo,Washington DCSubscription serviceFor our full range of subscription offers,including digital only or print and digital combined,visit:E can also subscribe by post,telephone or email:Post:The Economist Subscription Services,PO Box 471,Haywards Heath,RH16 3GY,UKTelephone:0333 230 9200 or 0207 576 8448Email:customerservices One-year print-only subscription(51 issues):UK.179PEFC certifiedThis copy of The Economistis printed on paper sourcedfrom sustainably managedforests certified by PEFCwww.pefc.orgPleaseVolume 430 Number 9136Asia55Thailand s rigged election56Banyan The filthy Ganges57K-pop at bay57Quacks in Pakistan58India s space weapons58Immigration in Australia59Democracy in IndonesiaChina60What is social credit?61A factory infernoInternational62Repatriating stolen art64Dirty donorsBusiness66Media s streamlined future67Hyundai needs a tune-up68Bartleby Charisma isoverrated69Naspers goes Dutch69Lyft and the unicorns69Chinese trains70A tussle at Telecom Italia71Renewable power 72Schumpeter Japan sninja activistsFinance&economics73The crypto winter74Buttonwood The charmsof emerging-market bonds75Getting Italians into work76America s low inflation76China and Venezuela77Exceptional Argentina78Free exchange The dragof ageingScience&technology79Tracking meteors80Parkinson s disease81Robot baristas82Whiteflies hack plants82Efficient solar panelsBooks&arts83Mao Zedong s afterlife84Sexism and espionage85African-American music86Johnson TeachinggrammarEconomic&financial indicators88Statistics on 42 economiesGraphic detail89The effect of a no-deal Brexit on asset pricesObituary90Mary Warnock,a philosopher at largeDont let thisyears ISAallowanceget away.Issued by Financial Administration Services Limited,authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.Fidelity,Fidelity International,the Fidelity International logo and F symbol aretrademarks of FIL Limited.UKM0319/23561/CSO9033/0319 B2Want to make the most of your 20,000 ISA allowance before the5 April deadline,but dont have time to choose what to invest in?The good news is with our Stocks and Shares ISA,you have the optionof putting your money in cash now.Then when youre ready,you canchoose the investments you want,with help from our free onlineguidance which includes a range of investment selection tools,aswell as our experts recommendations and useful market insights.The value of investments can go down as well as up,so you may notget back the amount you invest.Tax treatment depends on individualcircumstances and all tax rules may change in the future.Fidelitysguidance service is not a personal recommendation.If you areunsure about the suitability of an investment,you should speak to anauthorised financial adviser.For investment ideas to make the most of your ISA,visit fidelity.co.uk or call 0800 368 1721 today.InvestmentsISAsPensionsSecure it now.Invest later.The Economist March 30th 2019 91The world this week PoliticsAfteralmosttwoyearsinvestigatingRussianinterfer-enceinAmerica spresidentialelectionof2016,RobertMuellerpresentedhisreporttoWilliamBarr,theattorney-general,whoreleasedasum-mary.ThespecialcounselfoundnocollusionbetweenanyoneonDonaldTrump scampaignandtheRussianswhohadmeddledintheelec-tion.Questionsaboutwhetherthepresidenttriedtoobstructjusticewereleft“unresolved”.Democratswerenotpleased;theywantMrBarrtoreleasethefullreporttoCongress.Inasharpreversalofitsearlierposition,theJusticeDepart-mentsaiditwouldnowsupportstrikingdownthewholeofObamacare,ratherthancertainaspectsofit.Thehealth-careactisgoingthroughatortuouslegalappealsprocessandwillprob-ablyendupbeforetheSupremeCourt.MrTrumpcausedconfusionwhenhetweetedthathehadoverturned“additionallarge-scalesanctions”againstNorthKorea.Thatledtomuchhead-scratching,sincenosuchsanctionshadbeenannounced.Hemayhavebeenthinkingofplannedmeasures,orofpenaltiesforChinesefirmsinvolvedinsanctions-busting.Historical revisionMexico spresident,AndrsManuel Lpez Obrador,askedSpain to apologise for crimescommitted against indigenousMexicans by the conquistadors500 years ago.He also askedthe Vatican to say sorry.Spainrefused to apologise,sayingthe conquest“cannot be judgedinthelightofcontemporaryconsiderations”.TwoRussianmilitaryplaneswithsome100troopsandtonnesofequipmentaboardarrivedinCaracas,Venezuela scapital.RussiabacksNicolsMaduro,thecountry sleft-wingdictator.America ssecre-taryofstate,MikePompeo,toldtheRussianforeignminister,SergeiLavrov,that“theUnitedStatesandregionalcountrieswillnotstandidlybyasRussiaexacerbatestensionsinVenezuela.”MichelTemer,Brazil spresi-dentuntilthisyear,wasre-leasedfromjailfourdaysafterbeingarrestedattherequestofprosecutorsinvestigatingcorruption.Hewasnotchargedwithacrime.An ever-present dangerIsraelexchanged heavy firewith Palestinian militants inGaza.The fighting startedwhen a rocket from Gaza hit ahouse north of Tel Aviv.Nodeaths were reported.Binya-min Netanyahu,Israel s primeminister,cut short a trip toAmerica to deal with the crisis.Donald Trump signed a procla-mation recognising Israel scontrol of the Golan Heights,which it captured from Syria in1967.Arab countries rejectedthe move,which was seen as apolitical gift to Mr Netanyahujust weeks before Israel holdsan election.An American-backed Kurdishand Arab militia ousted thejihadists of Islamic Statefromtheir last foothold in Syria.isnow resembles a more conven-tional terrorist group,with lotsof money but no territory.After weeks of protests againstthe ailing president,AbdelazizBouteflika,Algeria s armychief,Ahmed Gaid Salah,demanded that he be declaredunfit to rule.Mr Salah hadpreviously stood by MrBouteflika s attempt to remainpresident while holding anational conference onAlgeria s political future.ManyAlgeriansthinkMrSalahshouldgo,too.Theuninvestigatedamassa-creofFulanivillagersincen-tralMaliinwhichperhaps160peoplewerekilledbymilitiasfromtheDogonethnicgroup.Intercommunalviolencehasledtoasmanyas600deathsintheregionoverthepastyear.EstimatesofthenumberofdeathscausedbyatropicalcycloneinMozambiquein-creasedtothethousands.Rescueworkersbelievethatseveralthousandpeoplehavediedandthattheirbodieshavebeenwashedouttosea.Anoth-er180arethoughttohavediedinZimbabwe.Aclose-run thingInitial results from Thailand selection suggested that partiesopposed to the current militaryjunta had won roughly half theseats in the lower house ofparliament.Leaders of thebiggest such party,Pheu Thai,claimed the right to form agovernment.But they alsoexpressed fears that theElection Commission wouldfind ways to deprive them oftheir victory.India sprime minister,Narendra Modi,announcedthat the armed forces hadsuccessfully tested an anti-satellite missile;he declaredIndia to be a“space power”.Opposition politiciansdismissed the test as anelectoral stunt.The ruling Liberal Party won athird term in government inAustralia smost populousstate,New South Wales.Theresult defied the national polls,which show the Liberals trail-ing the opposition Labor Party,giving them hope ahead of thenational election due in May.An explosion at a pesticidefactory in Xiangshui,a countyin theChineseprovince ofJiangsu,killed at least 78 peo-ple.It was China s worst indus-trial accident since 2015.The Chinese CommunistPartyexpelled Meng Hongwei,a former president of Interpoland vice-minister of publicsecurity.The party accused MrMeng of accepting“hugeamounts”of money and giftsin exchange for appointments,and of using public money tofund his family s“extravagant”lifestyle.He was detained lastyear,while still in office atInterpol s headquarters inFrance,during a trip to Beijing.China s Tsinghua Universitysuspended a legal scholar,XuZhangrun,from his teachingposts and placed him underinvestigation because of arti-cles he wrote criticising Chi-na s president,Xi Jinping.Day by dayAfter voting to wrest control ofthe Brexitprocess from thegovernment,British mps failedto come up with any alterna-tive,rejecting eight amend-ments that attempted to find apath out of the chaos.This wasafter the eugranted the gov-ernment a short extension tothe date on which Britain willleave,which could be April 12thif the withdrawal agreementstruck between Theresa Mayand the eudoes not pass Par-liament.In a bid to woo sup-port for that deal,Mrs Mayoffered to resign as primeminister before the next phaseof the negotiations.China s president,Xi Jinping,visited Europe.In Rome,theItalian governmentsigned anagreement to take part in Chi-na s Belt and Road Initiative,the first g7 country to do so.Dozens of trade deals weresigned with other Europeancountries.Mr Xi also attendeda summit with EmmanuelMacron and Angela Merkel.10The Economist March 30th 2019The world this week BusinessAtaproductlaunchfocusedsquarelyondigitalservices(ratherthananewdevice)Appleunveileditsvideo-streamingAppletv+app.Featuringoriginalpro-grammesaswellascontentfromcablechannels,suchashbo,theappwillbeavailableoncertainsmarttelevisionsandonAmazonFireandRoku.ThemoveintoNetflix sterrito-rycomesasApplefacesslow-ingdemandfortheiPhone.PurduePharma,whichmakesOxyContin,anopioidpainkill-erblamedforasurgeinaddic-tionandoverdosedeathsinAmerica,paid$270mtosettleacivillawsuitbroughtbythestateofOklahoma.DozensoflawsuitshavebeenlodgedagainstPurdueandotherdrugcompaniesinAmerica.Okla-homaclaimedthatPurdue saggressivemarketingofOxy-Contindrovetheepidemicofopioidaddiction.CharitabletrustsfundedbytheSacklerfamily,whichownsPurdue,areonthedefensive;severalmuseumssaytheywillnotacceptfurtherdonations.Moores lawDonald Trump said he wouldnominate Stephen Mooretothe board of the FederalReserve.Mr Moore founded theClub for Growth,which backspoliticians who pursue lowertaxes and smaller government.He is a controversial choice,having called for the Fed totarget commodity prices anddescribed Jerome Powell,itschairman,as“totally incompe-tent”(he says he now regretsmaking the remark).The board of Swedbanksackedits chief executive,shortlybefore a shareholders meetingthat was going to discuss herfate.A day earlier Swedishauthorities had raided thebank s offices in Stockholm aspart of a growing money-laundering investigation,amidallegations that 135bn($152bn)of money from mostlyRussian clients had passedthrough Swedbank s branch inEstonia.A regulator in NewYork state has also reportedlyopened inquiries into Swed-bank on several fronts.After another plunge in thelira,Turkey s central bank saidit would use its“liquidity-management tools”to prop upthe currency.The bankingauthority,meanwhile,beganan investigation into JPMorganChase,because of what it de-scribed as the bank s“manip-ulative”advice to sell the lira.Data showing a drop in Tur-key s foreign-currency reservestriggered more volatile trading.Criticism of the relationshipbetween Boeingand aviationregulators continued to mountfollowing the crash of a second737 max8 aircraft.The actinghead of the Federal AviationAdministration was hauled infront of Congress,where hedefended the plane s certifica-tion process.To add to thepressure on Boeing,Airbussealed a huge order for 300 jetsfrom China.The European Parliamentvoted in favour of a contro-versial digital copyright law.Two bits of the new directivehave drawn the most ire fromopponents:getting searchengines and news aggregatorsto pay for links from newswebsites,and holding internetcompanies responsible formaterial published withoutpermission.On the lattermeasure,websites such asYouTube worry they will needto implement pre-emptiveblocking to avoid being sued.Energy-relatedcarbonemis-sionsgrew by 1.7%in 2018 to ahistoric high of 33bn tonnes,according to the InternationalEnergy Agency.That was inpart because of adverse weath-er,which increased demandfor heating and cooling.Chi-na s emissions were up by2.5