1、年份1季度2季度3季度4季度总计季平均值 2000231.5285.1375.9253.81146.3 286.575 2001257.8296.3387.4279.21220.7 305.175 2002245.6287.4384.7283.51201.2 300.3 2003251.8302.6392.1287.61234.1 308.525 2004241.9312.5405.7278.31238.4 309.6 同季平均245.72296.78389.16276.48302.035 年份季度季顺序t销售量y趋势值趋势季节比率（） 2000 11 107321.233.31257783
2、22 456331.489474137.5609291 33 512341.778947149.8044288 44 238352.06842167.60049632 2001 15 127362.35789535.04822217 26 571372.647368153.2279706 37 641382.936842167.3905275 48 251393.22631663.83092634 2002 19 158403.51578939.15584077 210 629413.805263152.0038666 311 660424.094737155.625605 412 29343
3、4.38421167.45180716 2003 113 176444.67368439.57958527 214 654454.963158143.7479032 315 686465.252632147.4467748 416 305475.54210564.13732804 2004 117 186485.83157938.28487238 218 680496.121053137.0633228 319 725506.410526143.1644807 420 324516.762.70563189 SUMMARY OUTPUT 回归统计 Multiple R0.274290553 R
4、 Square0.075235308 Adjusted R Square0.023859491 标准误差219.2666092 观测值20 方差分析 dfSSMSFSignificance F 回归分析1 70405.72 70405.72 1.464410940.241882093 残差18 865401.2 48077.85 总计19935807 Coefficients标准误差t StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% Intercept310.9105263 101.8562 3.052445 0.0068557996.91851291 524.9025 X Var
5、iable 110.28947368 8.502794 1.210128 0.24188209-7.57423445 28.15318 RESIDUAL OUTPUTPROBABILITY OUTPUT 观测值预测 Y残差标准残差百分比排位Y 1321.2-214.2 -1.003662.5107 2331.4894737 124.51050.583417.5127 3341.7789474 170.2211 0.79759312.5158 4352.0684211 -114.068 -0.5344817.5176 5362.3578947 -235.358-1.102822.5186 637
6、2.6473684 198.3526 0.92940727.5238 7382.9368421 258.0632 1.20918932.5251 8393.2263158 -142.226 -0.6664237.5293 9403.5157895 -245.516-1.150442.5305 10413.8052632 215.1947 1.00832347.5324 11424.0947368 235.9053 1.10536552.5456 12434.3842105 -141.384 -0.6624757.5512 13444.6736842 -268.674 -1.2589162.55
7、71 14454.9631579 199.0368 0.93261367.5629 15465.2526316 220.7474 1.03434172.5641 16475.5421053 -170.542-0.799177.5654 17485.8315789 -299.832-1.404982.5660 18496.1210526 183.8789 0.86158987.5680 19506.4105263 218.58951.0242392.5686 20516.7-192.7 -0.9029297.5725 下限 95.0% 上限 95.0% 96.91851 524.9025 -7.
8、57423 28.15318 X Variable 1 Residual Plot 2520151050 -400 -200 0 200 400 X Variable 1 残差 X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot 2520151050 0 500 1000 X Variable 1 Y Y 预测 Y Normal Probability Plot 120100806040200 0 500 1000 Sample Percentile Y Normal Probability Plot 120100806040200 0 500 1000 Sample Percentile
9、Y 季节指数计算表 年份1季度(%)2季度(%)3季度(%)4季度(%)总计 200033.3125778 137.56093 149.80443 67.600496 388.2784 200135.0482222 153.22797 167.39053 63.830926 419.4976 200239.1558408 152.00387 155.62561 67.451807 414.2371 200339.5795853 143.7479147.44677 64.137328 394.9116 200438.2848724 137.06332 143.16448 62.705632 381.2183 同季平均37.0762197 144.7208152.68636 65.145238 399.6286 季节指数(%) 37.1106751 144.85529 152.82826 65.205778400 修正系数1.0009293 年份季度季顺序t 季节指数(%)预测值 2005 12137.11067514 195.56935 222144.8552896 778.27697 323152.828257 836.83927 42465.20577834 363.75558 a310.9105 b10.28947
