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3、經理大全光盘 w w w .2238.c n 中国最大下载资料网 w w w .2238.c n 16 A variety of specific factors drive these overhead requirements in a multiplicative fashion, i.e., they do not simply add up (see Exhibit 1-7). Overhead factors will likely increase slightly as the share of data traffic increases, even though the o
4、verhead on the data traffic itself will likely drop due to more efficient next-generation network topologies and protocols and more conservative carrier build-out strategies. This increase is driven by the higher peak-to-average ratio of data compared to voice. It is interesting to note that the pre
5、sence of overhead multiples in network design can cause a significant capacity miscalculation if there is a slight variance in demand growth, equipment capabilities, or traffic patterns. The natural tendency (particularly in an environment where there is unlimited funding) is to design for the engin
6、eers “worst case” (i.e., sustained traffic loads). If the worst case never materializes, the network is overbuilt and has capacity to spare. This phenomenon may well have contributed to the overcapacity built in the past few years. Exhibit 1-7 Overhead Factors Require Carriers To Install Capacity At
7、 A Significant Multiple Of Demand *Based on current long-haul network architectures; factors for voice and data weighted by current traffic mix * 95% confidence interval for the combined overhead, based on Monte-Carlo simulation, assuming each of the overhead factors follows a uniform distribution w
8、ithin the range shown Note: Based on 2000 network architectures and traffic patterns. In practice, factors will change over time (e.g., change in protocols, competitive environment) and with position in network (e.g., long haul vs. metro) Source: Interviews; McKinsey Factors affecting utilization Fa
9、ctors affecting utilization Network design Discretionary Protocol Equipment granularity Protection/ restoration Network inefficiencies Forecasting/ planning limitations Advance lighting ATM, SONET, IP overhead Under utilization from “lumpy” capacity addition when equipment upgraded Restoration path in event of cable cut or equipment failure Inefficiencies associated with packet loss, congestion, and peering Sub optimal utilization due to the unknown