1、889,300,000元及港 幣227,900,000元，較去年大幅增加434. 1%及789.2%。 石油業務向全球主要石油供應商 採購煉油及石油氣，轉售給批發代 理、零售經銷商及直銷客戶，包括船 公司、巴士公司、航空公司、公用事 業機構及香港特別行政區政府 （ 香港 政府 ） 。本年內的油價大幅波動；在 此充滿挑戰的環境中，石油業務藉實 施有效的營運策略，如減少存貨量， 使其成功減輕油價波動帶來的影響。 石油及石油氣業務亦在香港透過 17個汽油加油站及石油氣加油站和在 中國內地透過20個汽油加油站經銷煉 油及石油氣產品。鑑於香港政府於年 內廣泛引入石油氣環保的士，令石油 氣需求持續快速增長
2、。致使二零零一 年內香港的汽油及石油氣加油站業務 在數量、收益及盈利方面，分別較去 年大幅增長137%、36%及51%。 化學品業務專門負責液化化學品、 塑膠、有機及無機化學品等石油化工 產品的市場推廣和經銷。此業務錄得 營業額增長至港幣696,500,000元，主 要有賴本集團藉著進一步拓展廣東省 PETROLEUM AND CHEMICAL DISTRIBUTION 石油及化學品經銷 The Groups petroleum and chemical distribution segment principally engaged in the marketing and distribu
3、tion of petroleum, liquefied petroleum gas (“LPG”) and chemical products in Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland. The Group acquired its oil distribution business from China Resources Holdings in October 2000. With only one-month earning contribution in last year, the segment reported turnover and net
4、 profit before corporate interest and expenses for the year ended 31st December, 2001 of HK$9,889.3 million and HK$227.9 million respectively, representing substantial increase by 434.1% and 789.2% over that of last year. The petroleum operation trades refined oil and LPG purchased from the worlds m
5、ajor oil suppliers to wholesale agents, retail distributors and direct account customers including shipping companies, bus companies, airlines, public utilities companies and the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region (“the Hong Kong Government”). During the year, oil prices fluct
6、uated at wide range. Amid such challenging conditions, petroleum operation succeeded in mitigating the effect of volatile oil prices by implementing effective operational strategies such as reduction of inventory. Petroleum and gas operation also distributes refined oil and LPG products through 17 p
7、etrol and LPG stations in Hong Kong and 20 petrol stations in the Chinese Mainland. Continuing rapid growth in demand for LPG due to widespread introduction of environmental friendly LPG taxis by the Hong Kong Government during the year, triggered the overall substantial growth in volume, revenue an
8、d earnings of petrol and LPG filling station operation in Hong Kong 主席報告業務回顧 CHAIRMANS STATEMENT REVEW OF OPERATION 華潤創業有限公司 CHINA RESOURCES ENTERPRISE, LIMITED16 華潤創業有限公司 CHINA RESOURCES ENTERPRISE, LIMITED17 市場並開拓江蘇和上海市場而積極提 高銷量所致。石油價格波動對微妙的 化學品市場帶來重大影響。全球經濟 放緩減慢了下游輕工業和紡織產品的 出口，亦使中國內地對石油化工產品 的需求維持
9、低企。故此，國內石油化 工產品的價格維持於低水平，並引致 年內出現經營虧損。 by 137%, 36% and 51% respectively in 2001 as compared to that of last year. The chemical operation specializes in marketing and distribution of petrochemical products including liquefied chemical, plastics, and organic and inorganic chemicals. The segment recor
10、ded growth in turnover to HK$696.5 million, which was mainly attributable to the proactive effort to boost sales by further expansion in the Guangdong market and the opening up of the Jiangsu and Shanghai market. The volatile crude oil prices brought significant impact to the subtle chemical market.
11、 Sluggish global economic condition slowed down the export of downstream light industrial and textile products. Demand for petrochemical products in the Chinese Mainland remained low. This led to domestic prices for petrochemical products being kept at low level and resulted in an operating loss for
12、 the year. 主席報告業務回顧 CHAIRMANS STATEMENT REVEW OF OPERATION 華潤創業有限公司 CHINA RESOURCES ENTERPRISE, LIMITED17 華潤創業有限公司 CHINA RESOURCES ENTERPRISE, LIMITED18 本集團的建築物料業務為香港主要預 拌混凝土生產及分銷商之一。該業務 於截至二零零一年十二月三十一日止 年度錄得之營業額及未計公司總部利息 及費用前純利分別為港幣666,500,000元 和港幣141,700,000元，分別較去年減 少22.0%及30.9%。減少之主要原因 為香港地產市場沉寂令
13、政府減少興建 公營房屋及基建工程，導致對建築物 料整體需求下降。為了克服建築物料 行業的困境，董事將會繼續致力實施 減省成本計劃、豐富產品種類及提升 質素，並憑藉已設立之經銷網絡，推 銷價格合宜和環保的建築物料。 The Groups building materials segment is one of the major manufacturers and distributors of ready-mixed concrete in Hong Kong. The segment reported turnover and net profit before corporate inte
14、rest and expenses for the year ended 31st December, 2001 of HK$666.5 million and HK$141.7 million respectively, representing decrease of 22.0% and 30.9% from that of last year. The decline was primarily due to the general decrease in demand for building materials resulted from contraction in volume
15、of government-subsidised housing and infrastructure projects as a result of the sluggish property market in Hong Kong. To surmount the hard time in construction material industry, the Directors will continue to enforce vigorous on-going cost reduction programme, enrich product variety and quality an
16、d leverage on the existing distribution network to distribute right-priced and environmental friendly construction materials. BUILDING MATERIALS 建築物料 主席報告業務回顧 CHAIRMANS STATEMENT REVEW OF OPERATION 華潤創業有限公司 CHINA RESOURCES ENTERPRISE, LIMITED18 華潤創業有限公司 CHINA RESOURCES ENTERPRISE, LIMITED19 本集團零售業務截
17、至二零零一年十二 月三十一日止年度錄得營業額及未計 公司總部利息及費用前溢利分別為港 幣4,025,800,000元及港幣30,900,000元， 較去年增加17.4%及減少7.9%。 超級市場 超級市場業務錄得的營業額增長達 20.2%，增至港幣2,223,500,000元， 其主要由於本集團於年內在中國內地 增設多間新店鋪所致。香港及中國內 地超級市場對超級市場業務營業額的 貢獻分別由二零零零年錄得的76.1% 及23.9%轉變為二零零一年的70.5% 及29.5%。由於中國內地超級市場本 年之營業額急升47.9%，該等店鋪對 超級市場業務的溢利貢獻亦提高了 30.9%。然而，就整體而言，
18、超級市 場業務之未計公司總部利息及費用前 的純利反而明顯減少，全因香港消費 需求表現疲弱和市場競爭加劇致令香 港超級市場的業績抵銷了中國內地超 級市場於本年度溢利方面錄得的強勁 增長。 至於國內各地的超級市場業務， 當中以天津及蘇州之增長最為卓越； 營業額分別增長35.8%和44.6%，而 盈利亦增加了50.2%和65.5%。天津 及蘇州於本年度自營店鋪數目分別增 加至52間和98間。基於強勁溢利驅使 下，本集團遂於二零零一年十二月底 購入天津餘下之股權，藉此加快市場 擴充步伐，增強營運管理，以助提升 效率。 The Groups retail segment contributed turn
19、over and profit before corporate interest and expenses for the year ended 31st December, 2001 of HK$4,025.8 million and HK$30.9 million respectively, representing an increase of 17.4% and a decrease of 7.9% over that of last year. Supermarket Supermarket operation reported increase in turnover by 20
20、.2% to HK$2,223.5 million mainly attributable to a substantial increase in the number of new stores in the Chinese Mainland during the year. The contribution of Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland supermarkets to turnover of supermarket operation changed from 76.1% and 23.9% respectively in 2000 to 7
21、0.5% and 29.5% in 2001. With rapid growth in turnover of supermarkets in the Chinese Mainland by 47.9% during the year, profit contribution from these stores to supermarket operation increased by 30.9%. Overall net profit before corporate interest and expenses however declined substantially due to f
22、all in earnings from Hong Kong supermarkets. As a result of intensified competition under weak consumption demand, performance of Hong Kong supermarkets offset significant profit growth in the Chinese Mainland supermarkets in the year. Among the geographical locations in the Chinese Mainland, Tianji
23、n and Suzhou reported outstanding growth both in turnover by 35.8% and 44.6%, respectively and in earnings by 50.2% and 65.5%, respectively. The number of self-operated stores in Tianjin and Suzhou increased to 52 and 98, respectively during 2001. Driven by the substantial growth in earnings, the Gr
24、oup acquired the remaining e), this is a process that we believe it would prefer to conduct on its own terms and timing, but is coming under fierce pressure from the public. Greater China Cement Sector 62 Part 3: Company notes This section of the report includes three company research notes on ?Anhu
25、i Conch (914 HK, BUY) ?Asia Cement (1102 TT, SELL) ?Taiwan Cement (1101 TT, HOLD) Greater China Cement Sector 63 Anhui Conch (914 HK, BUY) Anhui Conch is the largest and fastest-growing cement company in China, with a current clinker capacity of 5.5 mn tonnes. Rapid expansion of production capacity
26、we expect clinker capacity to reach 11.0 mn tonnes in 18 months is driving strong revenue and earnings growth, in our view. We expect average net income growth of 39% p.a. in 2000-04. The company has a robust balance sheet, with low gearing and strong cash flows that should easily withstand the expa
27、nsion programme. Valuations are attractive, in our view. Trading at 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 9.0 x P/E in 2002F and at 5.0 x EV/EBITDA and 5.4x P/E in 2003F, Anhui Conch is attractively valued compared to its regional peers. We believe that Anhui Conch is the cheapest cement company in the region in terms
28、 of price-to-growth and EV/EBITDA-to-EBITDA growth. We are initiating coverage on Anhui Conch with a BUY recommendation and setting a 12-month target price of HK$2.7 representing 56% potential upside. Our target price is based on Anhui Conch trading at a 30% discount to our DCF calculation. At this
29、price, Anhui Conch would trade at 5.9x EV/EBITDA and 8.4x P/E in 2003F reasonable valuations in regional terms. Simon Francis 662 614 6212 simon.francis Greater China Cement Sector 64 Executive summary Anhui Conch is the largest cement producer in China, with installed clinker capacity of 5.5 mn ton
30、nes and a cement capacity of 8.3 mn tonnes. The companys main markets are in and around Anhui, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. Anhui Conch was listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange (914 HK) in 1997. Since then, the company has aggressively expanded production capacity and emerged as a leader in the
31、 Chinese cement sector. More expansion is planned, which should continue to drive earnings over the next few years. Rapid expansion of capacity is driving earnings Anhui Conch is the fastest-growing cement company in Asia. Clinker production capacity has doubled over the past four years to 5.5 mn to
32、nnes, and management plans further expansion to 11.0 mn tonnes by the end of 2002. This fuelled rapid EPS growth of 94% in 2000, and we forecast further EPS growth of 48% in 2001F, 20% in 2002F and 67% in 2003F. Right strategy in the worlds largest market We believe that Anhui Conch is well position
33、ed in the Chinese cement market, taking advantage of its government links to expand capacity on a tight budget. Unlike many cement companies in South-East Asia, we believe that the risk of Anhui Conch over-investing in new plant is small. Strong balance sheet The combination of the 1997 IPO proceeds
34、, low trade receivables (a common problem in the Chinese cement sector) and relatively cheap expansion means that, despite doubling in size over the past two years, gearing has remained fairly low. Net debt-to-equity is currently around 69%. How much gearing rises as a result of the expansion progra
35、mme will depend on whether Anhui Conch proceeds with plans to issue new A shares on the Shanghai exchange. We estimate that, without new equity, Anhui Conch can fund the expansion programme with gearing rising to 152%. In our view, this is not overly high, given: 1) the cost of borrowing is low at 5
36、.6% p.a., 2) interest cover is high reaching a trough of 4.9x in 2002F and 3) that gearing should fall quickly once the new lines come on stream. Anhui Conch is an under-researched company According to I/B/E/S, only eight analysts actively cover the stock. This is despite Anhui Conch being the large
37、st cement company in China and, arguably, the fastest-growing company in Asia in terms of production capacity, in our view. We expect that research coverage of Anhui Conch will improve over time, given the importance of the Chinese cement market and Anhui Conchs rapid growth. Valuations are attracti
38、ve Valuations are attractive, in our view. Trading at 7.3x EV/EBITDA and 9.0 x P/E in 2002F and at 5.0 x EV/EBITDA and 5.4x P/E in 2003F, Anhui Conch is attractively valued compared to its regional peers. We believe that Anhui Conch is the cheapest cement company in the region, in terms of price-to-
39、growth and EV/EBITDA-to-EBITDA growth. Greater China Cement Sector 65 Statistical abstract Price DividendYieldMarketMarket52-week 28 Nov 01 HSI12/01F12/01Fcapcapprice range (HK$) (RMB)(%)(HK$ mn)(US$ mn)(HK$) 1.73 11,0660.00.01,7012180.46-2.60 Year-end Net profitEPSEPSP/EROAE EBITDAEV/EBITDA 31 Dec
40、(RMB mn)(RMB) growth (%)(x)(%) (RMB mn)(x) 2003F 337 0.34 675.413 1,0715.0 2002F 202 0.20 209.09 751 7.3 2001F 168 0.17 4810.78 599 6.6 2000A 114 0.12 9415.96 445 4.3 1999A 59 0.06 -4430.83 337 6.9 Shares outstanding (mn) 983Book value/share 12/00 (RMB) 2.3 Daily trading volume 6M avg. (mn) 3.66Net
41、debt/equity 12/00 (%) 95.5 Free float (%) 37ROIC 12/00 (%) 7.1 Major shareholders (%) WACC 12/00 (%) 9.5 Anhui Conch Holdings63Est. 3-year EPS growth (%) 43.6 Abs. performance (%) +8; +2; +193 Rel. performance (%) +0; +3; +219 (1; 3; 12 months) (1; 3; 12 months) Anhui Conch is the largest cement mak
42、er in China, with an installed clinker capacity of 5.5 mn tonnes and cement capacity of 8.3 mn tonnes. Anhui Conchs key markets are in Anhui, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu. Share price performance 13/11/01 Share price (TB, LHS) and average weekly volume (MN, RHS) NDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASO 0 1 2 3 00
43、0S 0 5 10 15 Anhui Conch H CWA#(K:ANH(VO),D)(R.H.SCALE) Performance relative to SET (%) NDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASO -1 0 1 2 3 REB#(K:ANH)/REB#(HNGKNGI)-1 13/11/01 Share price (TB, LHS) and average weekly volume (MN, RHS) NDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASO 0 1 2 3 000S 0 5 10 15 Anhui Conch H CWA#(K:ANH(VO),D)(R
44、.H.SCALE) Performance relative to SET (%) NDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASO -1 0 1 2 3 REB#(K:ANH)/REB#(HNGKNGI)-1 Source: Thomson Financial Datastream Greater China Cement Sector 66 Valuations We have already compared Anhui Conch to its regional peers in the valuation section of this report see pages 9-13.
45、Our conclusion is that Anhui Conch is cheap in terms of P/E and EV/EBITDA when measured against its peers and also in terms of price to growth ratios. Anhui Conch also compares favourably to other companies in our Chinese universe of stocks. Anhui Conch is trading at 10.7x 2001F P/E and 9.0 x 2002F P/E. This represents a discount of 16% in 2001 and 25% in 2002 to our universe of Chinese companies (P/Es of 12.7 in 2001 and 12.0 in 2002). Stripping out telecoms, technology and oil stocks, our Chinese universe is trading at 10.2x 2001F P/E and 9.
