1、4 1.29 1.78 2.05 2.54 PE (x)23.3 20.6 15.0 13.0 10.4 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 08-0710-0712-0702-0804-0806-0808-08 NTESNASDAQ Composite Index % 18 The9, Hold, Target Price US$25.24 Source: CICC Research WoW contributed around 90% Revenue. However, the license agreement will expire in 2009. the t
2、erms for renewal could be very tough even if The9 manage to get it. No new game can replace WoW and the license renewal has become crucial to the companys survival. No need to take such a big risk. 20 40 60 80 100 120 Aug-07Oct-07Dec-07Feb-08Apr-08Jun-08Aug-08 NCTYNASDAQ Composite Index % (Rmb mn)20
3、06A2007A2008E2009E Net Revenue986 1,280 1,857 2,197 (+/- )112%30%45%18% Gross Profit462 580 890 964 (+/-)106%26%54%8% Operating Profit270 236 431 485 (+/- )352%-13%83%13% Net Profit313 241 413 470 (+/- )332%-23%71%14% Diluted EPS (Rmb)11.02 8.72 14.93 16.99 Diluted EPS (US$)1.41 1.18 2.13 2.54 PE (x
4、)13.1 15.7 8.7 7.3 19 Online Advertising: Gaining Market Share From Traditional Media 20 Higher than GDP Growth Largest advertising market in Asia excluding Japan. CAGR around 18% in the last 14 years. Higher than GDP growth. Very low per capita advertising expenditure at US$8 in 2005, far below the
5、 world average at US$82.2 (developed countries US$300500). High long term growth potential. Short-term, strongly correlated with macro-economy. Source: CICC Research 1626 2632 3359 3859 4317 5372 6436 8108 9063 10569 12452 4953 2084 14688 28.2% 26.3% 27.6% 14.9% 19.8% 26.0% 11.8% 16.6% 17.8% 18.0% 1
6、0.0% 9.1% 10.0% 10.1% 10.4% 11.1% 11.4% 14.7%11.9% 8.5% 8.3% 8.4% 7.6% 7.8% 10.9% 13.1% 9.3% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% China advertising expenditureGrowth Rate GDP growth rate Mn USD 21 Inte
7、rnet Advertising, More Defensive than Traditional Advertising Internet advertising growing more strongly than traditional platforms such as TV and newspapers. Internet advertising is one of the few platforms with nationwide coverage targeted at an above average population while the traditional media
8、 market is pretty fragmented. Internet can target an audience more precisely. Source: CICC Research 1.0% 1.1% 1.9% 3.2% 4.9% 6.1% 7.3% 9.1% 10.9% 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% 3.3% 3.8% 4.5% 4.8% 5.1% 5.4% 6.0% 7.1% 8.9% 10.2% 10.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.7% 1.7% 2.3% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.8% 4.8% 6.0% 7.3% 8.5% 9.2% 0% 2% 4% 6%
9、8% 10% 12% 199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007(e)2008(e)2009(e) ChinaUSWorldwide Leading attention-grabbing internet advertising methods Leading factors considered in posting internet advertisements 1. Relevant advertisements shown while searching a certain item 1. Focusing on specific
10、user groups 2. Relevant advertisements shown while visiting vertically- integrated websites for certain items 2. Volume of user visit时雪松时雪松 March，2008 Introduction to Chemical Sector 化工行业介绍化工行业介绍 2 Chemical Sector Agenda 1、行业简介Sector Briefing 2、行业和公司研究思路Research framework 3、盈利预测和模型Earning forecast a
11、nd Modeling 5、重点子行业和公司介绍 Introduction to key sub-sectors and listcos 4、估值方法探讨Valuation 附录：一些化工基本产业链 行业简介Sector briefing 4 Chemical Sector Pictures of chemical units 5 Chemical Sector Big but segmented sector 基础化学原料Base Material (5682亿元） 化工产品Chemicals 肥料 Fertilizer （2775亿元） 农药 Herbicide & Pesticide （
12、729亿元） 涂料/油墨/颜料和染料Coating, ink, pigment &dye（1858亿元） 塑料和合成树脂Plastic & Synthetic resin （3339亿 元） 特殊化学品Specialties （4266亿元） 橡胶Rubber（2698亿元） 三酸二碱、甲醇、氯化物、醋 酸、无机盐等 氮肥、磷肥、钾肥、复合 肥和生物肥 除草剂、杀虫剂、杀菌剂 各种 五大通用树脂、五大工程塑料、 聚氨酯、环氧树脂等 试剂、炸药、林产、信息、专 用精细化学品 日化 Detergent and others （450亿元） 洗涤剂等 七大基本胶（SBR、BR、NBR、CR、 IIR
13、、EPR、SBS） 化工机械和设备Chemical M & E（595.7亿元） 石油、化机和橡胶设备 括号内为子行业2006年销售额 Source ：中国石油化学工业协会 6 Chemical Sector Categorize by feedstock origin 石油化工Petrochemical，中石化中石油下属子公司 化工产品Chemicals 煤化工 Coal chemical，华鲁恒升、柳化股份、湖北宜化 天然气化工 NG chemical，云天化、泸天化、赤天化、渝三峡 盐化工 Salt chemical，山东海化、三友化工、双环科技、云南盐化 硅化工 Silicon che
14、mical，新安股份、星新材料 氟化工 Fluoro-chemical，三爱富，巨化股份 生物化工 Biochemical，丰原生化、大成生化 磷化工 Phosphorus-chemical，澄星股份、兴发集团、马龙产业 氯碱化工 Chlor-alkali chemical，新疆天业、中泰化学、氯碱化工、英力特 电石化工 Calcium carbide chemical，山西三维、云维股份、新疆天业 无机盐化工 Inorganic chemical，红星发展 盐湖化工 Salt lake chemical，盐湖钾肥、中信国安、西藏矿业 7 Chemical Sector From perspe
15、ctive of investment 化工产品Chemicals Commodity chemicals 大宗化学品 Specialty chemicals 特殊化学品 Diversified chemicals 多元化化学品 Industrial gas 工业气体 ?同质化Homogeneous ?低进入壁垒Low entry barrier (Technology) ?需求量大Large volume for demand (2 mn ton) ?周期性强Typical Cyclical ?规模经济决定成本水平Cost largely determined by scale ?投资比较大
16、Heavy investment ?市场竞争度高 Highly Segmented ?一定差异化Differentiated ?较高进入壁垒High entry barrier (Technology) ?需求量相对较小Relative small volume for demand ?成长性更好Cyclical or growing ?技术水平影响成本Cost largely determined by technology ?相对较低投入Low investment ?行业集中度高Highly concentrated 8 Chemical Sector Typical value cha
17、ins-Blue Star New Material 石英砂金属硅 甲醇氯甲烷 工业盐 氯化氢 有机硅单体有机硅中间体 硅树脂 硅橡胶 硅油 副产物一甲 气相白 碳黑 苯 丙烯 苯酚 丙酮 双酚A 环氧氯 丙烷 液氯 环氧树脂 聚碳酸酯 聚苯醚 PPE 改性PPE 顺酐BDOPBT改性PBT 甲醛 聚甲醛 POM 电石乙炔氯丁二烯氯丁橡胶 石油气 C4 丁二烯 SBS橡胶 MTBE 丁基橡胶 蓝星新材产业链 云南盐化 中国石化 传化股份 德美化工 生益科技 金发科技 四川长虹、 美的电器等 山西三维 泸天化 石油、天然气、煤炭、矿物质消费端 众和股份七匹狼 联想电脑 9 Chemical Se
18、ctor Growth turning point of chemical sub-sectors Source：中国石油化工协会, CICC research 分子行业收入变化分子行业利润变化 单位：亿元 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 20002001200220032004200520062007 亿元 化学矿采选基础化学原料制造 肥料制造农药制造 涂料、油墨、颜料及类似产品制造合成材料制造 专用化学产品制造橡胶制品业 (50) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2000200120022003200420
19、0520062007 1- 11 亿元 化学矿采选基础化学原料制造 肥料制造农药制造 涂料、油墨、颜料及类似产品制造合成材料制造 专用化学产品制造橡胶制品业 10 Chemical Sector - 100 200 300 400 500 600 04/01 04/04 04/07 04/10 05/01 05/04 05/07 05/10 06/01 06/04 06/07 06/10 07/01 07/04 07/07 07/10 亿元 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 化工行业月度投资（左轴） 占全国投资比例（右轴） Accelerating Industry Inves
20、tment Source：CEIC, CICC research ?企业资本饥渴症。 ?子行业龙头企业大多已 经上市，纷纷进行再融 资。 ?需求下降过程中的产能 压力。 11 Chemical Sector Chemical Industry Trend ?Capital reallocation (to ME and China) ?Commerce (US import and Devping export) ?Coal (petroleum Substitute) ?Consolidation (C20=37%/90 to 46%/05) BASF/Reliance/Sinopec/SA
21、BIC. ?Corn (Biochemical, Biodiesel, Ethanol ) ?Cycle (Petrochemical downcycle begins) 全球化工行业趋势”6C”中国化工行业趋势 ?大量资本需求 ?部分行业开始整合 ?政策性地方企业重组 ?盈利向上游企业集中，企业一体化趋势 ?煤化工热 ?周期位置不同 ?生物替代影响 ?全球化竞争，优势企业寻求海外市场和技术合 作 行业和公司研究思路 Research framework 13 Chemical Sector Sector Drivers ?新产能来自于资本支出。 New capacities driven by investment ?行业集中度决定竞争状 况。Concentration of the industry ?行业景气度吸引投资。 Industry prosperity attracts ?国家政策。Industry policies ?进口产品影响。Impacts from import ?宏观经济各个领域。Related to m
