1、THE CHANGING NATURE OF WORK A World Bank Group Flagship Report WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORTTHE CHANGING NATURE OF WORK 2019 WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORTTHE CHANGING NATURE OF WORK A World Bank Group Flagship Report 2019 WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / Th
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12、SBN, and DOI: Softcover ISSN: 0163-5085 ISBN: 978-1-4648-1328-3 e-ISBN: 978-1-4648-1356-6 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1328-3 Hardcover ISSN: 0163-5085 ISBN: 978-1-4648-1342-9 DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1342-9 Cover art: Diego Rivera, The Making of a Fresco Showing the Building of a City, 1931, fresco, 271
13、by 357 inches, gift of William Gerstle. Image copyright San Francisco Art Institute. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Weight Creative, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Interior design: Debra Naylor, Naylor Design, Inc., Washington, DC. v Contents Forewor
14、d . viiOverview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Changes in the nature of work . 5 What can governments do? . 9 Organization of this study . 111 . The changing nature of work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
15、. . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Technology generates jobs . 20 How work is changing . 23 A simple model of changing work . 282 . The changing nature of firms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Superstar firms . 37 Competitive markets . 41 Tax avoidance . 423 . Buil
16、ding human capital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Why governments should get involved . 52 Why measurement helps . 53 The human capital project . 554 . Lifelong learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
17、. . . . . . 69 Learning in early childhood . 73 Tertiary education . 77 Adult learning outside the workplace . 815 . Returns to work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Informality . 94 Working women . 96 Working in agriculture . 996 . Stren
18、gthening social protection . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .105 Social assistance . 107 Social insurance . 113 Labor regulation . 1157 . Ideas for social inclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 A global “New Deal” . 125
19、Creating a new social contract . 127 Financing social inclusion . 130Foreword At a time when the global economy is growing and the poverty rate is the lowest in recorded history, it would be easy to become complacent and over- look looming challenges. One of the most critical is the future of work,
20、the subject of the 2019 World Development Report. “Machines are coming to take our jobs” has been a concern for hundreds of yearsat least since the industrialization of weaving in the early 18th century, which raised productivity and also fears that thousands of workers would be thrown out on the st
21、reets. Innovation and technological progress have caused disruption, but they have created more prosperity than they have destroyed. Yet today, we are riding a new wave of uncertainty as the pace of innovation continues to accelerate and technology affects every part of our lives. We know that robot
22、s are taking over thousands of routine tasks and will eliminate many low-skill jobs in advanced economies and developing countries. At the same time, technology is creating opportunities, paving the way for new and altered jobs, increasing productivity, and improving the delivery of public services.
23、 When we consider the scope of the challenge to prepare for the future of work, it is important to understand that many children currently in primary school will work in jobs as adults that do not even exist today. That is why this Report emphasizes the primacy of human capital in meet- ing a challe
24、nge that, by its very definition, resists simple and prescriptive solutions. Many jobs today, and many more in the near future, will require specific skillsa combination of technological know-how, problem-solving, and critical thinkingas well as soft skills such as perseverance, collabora- tion, and
25、 empathy. The days of staying in one job, or with one company, for decades are waning. In the gig economy, workers will likely have many gigs over the course of their careers, which means they will have to be lifelong learners. Innovation will continue to accelerate, but developing countries will ne
26、ed to take rapid action to ensure they can compete in the economy of the future. They will have to invest in their people with a fierce sense of urgencyespecially in health and education, which are the building blocks of human capitalto harness the benefits of technology and to blunt its worst disru
27、ptions. But right now too many countries are not making these critical investments. Our Human Capital Project aims to fix that. This study unveils our new Human Capital Index, which measures the consequences of neglecting investments in human capital in terms of the lost productivity of the next gen
28、eration of workers. In countries with the lowest human capital invest- ments today, our analysis suggests that the workforce of the future will only be one-third to one-half as productive as it could be if people enjoyed full health and received a high-quality education.viiviii | Foreword Adjusting
29、to the changing nature of work also requires rethinking the social contract. We need new ways to invest in people and to protect them, regardless of their employment status. Yet four out of five people in develop- ing countries have never known what it means to live with social protection. With 2 bi
30、llion people already working in the informal sectorunprotected by stable wage employment, social safety nets, or the benefits of education new working patterns are adding to a dilemma that predates the latest innovations. This Report challenges governments to take better care of their citizens and c
31、alls for a universal, guaranteed minimum level of social protection. It can be done with the right reforms, such as ending unhelpful subsidies; improving labor market regulations; and, globally, overhauling taxation pol- icies. Investing in human capital is not just a concern for ministers of health and education; it should also be a top priority for heads of state and min- isters of finance. The Human Capital Project will put the evidence squarely in front of those decision makers, and the index will make it hard to
