【美妆护肤】华熙生物：对标欧莱雅看华熙生物发展空间-安信证券-20211130.pdf

1、 1 ? ? xml ? ? ? ? ?1). ?2). ?3). ? ? ? 70 ?1?2? ? 80?90 ? 10 ? ? ? ?- -A A ? 2021-2023 ? 70.6%?45.1%?43.1%? 22.5%?43.4%?43.8%?-A ?6 ? 222.5 ?2022 ? PE? 94x? ? ? (?) 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E ? 1,885.6 2,632.7 4,492.0 6,517.9 9,324.8 ? 585.6 645.8 791.0 1,134.4 1,631.1 ?(?) 1.22 1.35 1.65 2.36 3.4

2、0 ?(?) 9.48 10.46 11.77 13.50 16.01 ? 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E ?(?) 138.8 125.9 102.8 71.7 49.8 ?(?) 17.9 16.2 14.4 12.5 10.6 ? 31.1% 24.5% 17.6% 17.4% 17.5% ? 12.9% 12.9% 14.0% 17.5% 21.2% ? 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% ROIC 68.1% 28.6% 29.6% 34.5% 47.0% ?Wind ? Tabl e_Ti t l e 2021 ? 11? 30 ? ?6883

3、63.SH? Tabl e_BaseI nf o ? ? ? ? ?-A ? 6 ? 222.50 ? ?2021-11-29? 160.96 ? Tabl e_Market I nf o ? ? 77,260.80 ? 15,263.65 ? 480.00 ? 94.83 12 ? 133.50/307.00 ? Tabl e_C hart ? ?Wind? ?% 1M 3M 12M ? -3.47 -14.43 4.32 ? -3.04 -13.45 8.85 ? ? SAC?S1450517070005 ? ? Tabl e_R eport ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?2021

4、Q3 ? 88%?/? 2021-10-27 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?2021H1 ?/? 2021-08-31 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?2021H1 ?/? 2021-07-04 ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?2021Q1 ?/? -10%7%24%41%58%75%92%2020-112021-032021-07? 2 ?/? ? ? ? 1. ? . 4 1.1. ? 20 ? . 4 1.2. ?. 5 2. ?+?+? . 6 2.1. ? . 7 2.2. ? . 13 2.3. ? . 18 3. ? . 20 3.1. ? ? . 21 3.2. ?.

5、26 3.3. ? ? . 28 4. ? . 30 5. ? . 34 5.1. ? . 34 5.2. ?. 37 5.3. ? . 39 6. ? . 41 ? ? 1?. 4 ? 2? 21H1? . 5 ? 3?. 5 ? 4? . 5 ? 5?2016-2021H1 ?. 6 ? 6? . 7 ? 7?. 7 ? 8?. 8 ? 9? . 8 ? 10? . 9 ? 11? . 10 ? 12? . 10 ? 13? .11 ? 14? .11 ? 15? . 12 ? 16? . 12 ? 17? . 13 ? 18?. 14 ? 19? . 15 ? 20?2020 ? . 1

6、5 ? 21?. 16 ? 22? . 16 qZiXiYmUeXqUoPrQ8OcM7NsQpPoMoPkPpOoPiNsRpP9PrQoRxNqMoPxNsRnM 3 ?/? ? ? ? 23?. 17 ? 24?. 18 ? 25? 2019 ? V? . 19 ? 26?. 19 ? 27? 618 ?. 20 ? 28? . 20 ? 29? . 21 ? 30? . 21 ? 31?. 22 ? 32?. 22 ? 33?. 22 ? 34? . 23 ? 35? . 23 ? 36? 14 ? . 24 ? 37?. 25 ? 38? . 26 ? 39?. 27 ? 40? .

7、 28 ? 41?. 29 ? 42?. 30 ? 43? . 30 ? 44?. 32 ? 45? . 33 ? 46? 2021 ? 10 ? . 33 ? 47?. 34 ? 48? BIOHYALUX?. 34 ? 49? 10 ? . 39 ? 50? . 40 ? 51? PE? . 40 ? 1?. 9 ? 2? . 10 ? 3?. 12 ? 4? . 17 ? 5? . 25 ? 6?. 27 ? 7? 2021.11.25? . 34 ? 8? . 35 ? 9? . 35 ? 10? 2021.11.25? . 36 ? 11? . 36 ? 12? 2021.11.25

8、? . 36 ? 13?. 37 ? 14?2021.11.25? . 37 4 ?/? ? ? ? 15? DCF ? . 38 ? 16? DCF ?. 38 ? 18? . 39 1. ? ? 2019 ? ? 1.1. ? 20 ? ? 20 ? 1998 ?2000 ? 2012 ? CFDA ?2014?,?2019 ? A ? 2021 ? ? ? 1? ? 5 ?/? ? ? 1.2. ? ?2021H1? 21.46%? ? 16.23%? ?(? 62.07%)? ? 2? 21H1? ? ?+? 20 ? 26.4 ? 6.5 ?21H1 ? 19.4 ? 3.6 ? ?

9、 3? ? 4? ? ? ?16 ? 8.7%? 26.1%?2021H1 ? 62.07%? 7.33 8.18 12.63 18.86 26.33 19.37 11.6% 54.4% 49.3% 39.6% 104.4% 0%20%40%60%80%100%120%051015202530201620172018201920202021H1? yoy2.69 2.22 4.24 5.85 6.45 3.60 2.8% 5.2% 7.0% 7.6% 4.2% 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%01234567201620172018201920202021H1? yoy 6 ?/? ? ?

10、 ? 5?2016-2021H1 ? 1 ? 2. ?+?+? ? ? 1909 ? ? ? ?1909-1956? ? 1909 ? ? ?1957-2000? ? ? ?2001 ? ? 1 ? 100 ? 2017 ? 4 ? 8.7% 11.6% 23.0% 33.6% 51.1% 62.0% 62.5% 62.0% 51.5% 40.4% 26.7% 21.4% 26.1% 24.1% 24.8% 25.9% 21.9% 16.2% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%201620172018201920202020H1? ? ? 7 ?/? ? ? ?

11、 6? ? ? 7? ? ?1). ?2). ?3). ? 2.1. ? ?1907 ?19091909- -19561956?1909?1910-1913?1939?19571957- -19831983?1963?1964?1965?1970?1983?19841984- -20002000?1985?Polo?1985?1987?1989?1989?1996?2000?Matrix?SoftSheen-Carson2002?Shu Uemura?Innov2003?Skinceuticals?2004?2006?SkinEthic?TheBodyShop?Sanoflore?2007?P

12、ureOlogy?2008?Yves SaintLaurent?Professionnel ?YSL Beaut?YSL ?2010?essie?2012?Urban Decay?2014?: ?Declor?Carita?MG?NYX?2016?ITCosmetics?Atelier Cologne?2017?CeraVe?AcneFree?Ambi?2018?ModiFace?3CE?Logocos Naturkosmetik AG?Giorgio Armani?Valentino?2020?Mugle?20012001? 8 ?/? ? ? ?-? ?C ? ? 3.4%-3.5%? 2

13、020 ? 9.64 ? 3.4%? ? 8? ? ? 9? ? ? 3 ?6 ?21 ?13 ? 58 ? 4000?2020 ? 500 ? 7.21 7.91 8.57 7.61 7.94 8.5 8.77 9.14 9.85 9.64 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3%3%3%3%3%3%3%4%4%4%4%0246810122011201220132014201520162017201820192020? ? 3.37% 3.39% 3.30% 3.44% 2.88% 2.85% 2.75% 2.58% 1.51%

14、 1.32% 1.36% 1.60% 0%1%2%3%4%2017201820192020? ? ? 9 ?/? ? ? ? 10? ? ? 2012 ? 20 ? 80%? 90%? 3 ? 4 ? ? 1? ? ? 2012 ? ? 2011 LR 2412 ? 2006 ? ? 1995 ? ? 1994 ? ? UVA ? UVB? 1994 ? ? ? ? 10 ?/? ? ? ? 11? ? ? 12? ? ? ? ?36.1%? 6 ? 41 ? ? 3%? 11%? 24%? ? ? 2? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?GAGsGAGs?GAGs?GAG

15、s? 11 ?/? ? ? ?1). ?2). ?3). ? KOL ?2016 ? 10 ?BA? ? 13? ?Researchgate? ? 14? ? CBO? ? 2007 ? 12 ?/? ? ? ?Absolue ? HR ? 30%? 5880/100ml ? ? ? 3? ? ? ? ? 30% ? ? 5880/100ml 20% ? ? 3980/50ml 15% ? ? 600/30ml 10% ? ? 980/30ml 3%-5% ? ? 340/30m ? ? 2017 ? ? 15? ? 16? ? ? 50 300 800 0100200300400500600

16、700800900201820192020 13 ?/? ? ? 2.2. ? ?1963 ?1964 ? ? 17? ? ?2013 ? Urban Decay?2014 ? NXY ?2016 ? IT Cosmetics?2017 ? CeraVe? ?2006 ?The Body Shop ? The Body Shop ?The Body Shop ? The Body Shop ?The Body Shop ?2017? The Body Shop ? 14 ?/? ? ? ? 18? ? ? 15 ?/? ? ? ? 19? ? ? 2020 ? ? 42%? 36%? ? 20

17、?2020 ? ? ? ? ? N ? ?10 ? 10 ? 10 ? 2019 ?LA ROCHE-?3,097.30, 11% 11,703.80, 42% 10,179.90, 36% 3,011.10, 11% ? ? ? ? 16 ?/? ? ? POSAY? 10 ?10 ? 9 ?LA ROCHE-POSAY?2? 1975 ? 40 ?10 ? ? ? 21? ? ? 22? ? ? 2 ? ?2017 and August 2018 among dermatologists in 59 ? ? 17 ?/? ? ? ? 23? ? ? ? ?+?+? Sheldon R. P

18、innel?3 ? ? 4? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? AGE? ? ? ? ? CF? B5? ? CE? ? RBE? ? C? ? ? ? ? ? ? B5? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 18 ?/? ? ? 2.3. ? ? ? ? 19 ? ONE ? ?Z? ? ? ?+? ? ? 24? ? 2019 ? ? 11? 940 ? 40 ? 2019 ? 11? 19 ?/? ? ? ? 25? 2019 ? V ? ? ?2019 ? 12 ? 18 ?ONE ? ?2016 ? ? 26? ? ? 2020 ?, ,? 20 ?/? ? ? ?

19、 2019 ?2020 ? 74? 26.6%? 62%? 618 ? top10 ? 4 ? ? 27? 618 ? ? 3. ? ? 3 ?1). ?2). ?3). ? ? 28? ?+ +?+ +? 21 ?/? ? ? ? 3.1. ? ? ?2021 ? 1.92 ? 101.18%? 6.38%?2020 ? 467 ? 90 ? 160 ?/+ 37 ? 21 ? ? 29? ?Wind? ? 30? ?Wind? ?-? 0.24 0.26 0.53 0.94 1.41 1.92 3.27% 3.18% 4.20% 4.98% 5.36% 6.37% 0%1%2%3%4%5%

20、6%7%0.00.51.01.52.02.5201620172018201920202021Q1-3? ? 2.09% 2.15% 2.49% 2.87% 2.36% 2.09% 2.27% 2.05% 2.29% 2.17% 2.39% 1.92% 3.62% 3.71% 2.78% 2.41% 3.18% 4.20% 4.98% 5.36% 0%1%2%3%4%5%6%2017201820192020? ? ? ? ? 22 ?/? ? ? ? 31? ? ? ? 32? ? ? 33? ? 23 ?/? ? ? ? 2021 ? 467 ? 90 ? 2021 ? 206 ? ? 34?

21、 ?Wind? ? 2021 ? 408 ? 335 ? ? 126 ? 63 ? 4 ? ? 10 ? 4 ? 14 ? ? 35? ?Wind? 126 149 185 279 377 467 18.3% 24.2% 50.8% 35.1% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%050100150200250300350400450500201620172018201920202021H1? yoy109 190 341 408 0501001502002503003504004502019Q32019? 2020? 2021H1? ? 24 ?/? ? ? ? 36? 14 ? ?NM

22、PA? ? ? Chimex? ? ? 2018 ? 6 ?N-? 1-2 ? ? 25 ?/? ? ? ? 5? ? ? ? ?-? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? -PG A ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? 37? ? ?2021 ? 1 ? 6? 4.0 ? 1-10-100 ? 26 ?/? ? ? ? 38? ? 3.2. ? ?+? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?+?+?+? ?4.0?1 1?1010?100100 27 ?/? ? ? ? 39? ? ? 12-19 ?/ml?5-10 ?/ml? 15-2

23、2 ?/ml? ? 6? ? ?/ml? ? ? ? ? ? ? 17.3 ? ? ? 377? VC? 14 ? C? ? ? ? 12.3 ? ? ? 12.3 ? ? ? 5D? 18.6 ? ? ? ? 9.8 ?Collrepair ? ? 11.6 ? A ? ? ? 9.8 ? ? ? ? ? 5.5 ?-? ? ? 14 ?-?VC+VE?VC-IP? ? ? ? 6 ?/?/? ? ? ? ? ? 21.6 ? ? ? ? ? ? 15.3 ? ? ? ? 28 ?/? ? ? ? ? ?9.18? ? 3.3. ? ? ? ? 1ml ? BFS? ? 40? ? ? 29

24、 ?/? ? ? ? 41? ? ?+? ? 30 ?/? ? ? ? 42? ? 4. ? ? ? 70 ? ? 43? ? ? ?1964 ?BM ? 70 ?1971 ? 2.6 ? ? 70 ? ? ? 70 ?1909-1956?1957-1983?1984-2000?2001? 31 ?/? ? ? ? CEO ? Absolute?3? ? ? ? ?PPD?70 ? Elsve ? ?4? 10 ?2011 ? 800Da ? HA4 ? INFIHA-HYDRA ? ? ? ?1988 ? 36 ? 3 ?Digital Makeover: How LOreal Put Pe

25、ople First to Build a Beauty Tech Powerhouse, B?atrice Collin, Marie Taillard 4 ?Evolving through innovation and knowledge reutilization: The case of LOral, Fiorenza Belussi, Silvia Rita Sedita?Andrea Ganzaroli, Luigi Orsi 32 ?/? ? ? ? 44? ? ? 70 ? 80 ? 90 ?1971 ? 2.7 ? 1980 ? 13 ? 2000 ? 126.7 ?198

26、0-2000 ? 20 ? 12%?80?90 ? 7 ? 20 ?1997 ? ? ? ?2018 ? 33 ?/? ? ? ? 45? ? ? 10 ?70 ? 1909 ? 60 ? 4 ? 2014 ? 7 ? 4 ? 80?90 ? 1980 ? 20 ? 10 ? ?10 ? ?2014 ?10 ? ? ? 46? 2021 ? 10 ? ? ? BIOHYALUX ? 34 ?/? ? ? ? ? 47? ? 48?BIOHYALUX ? ?YouTube?vvalentines? ?Amazon? 5. ? ? ?2021 ? ? 2021 ?-2023 ? 70.6%?45.

27、1%?43.1%? 22.5%?43.4%?43.8%? 892-1084 ? 1053-1502 ? 1053-1084 ? 1068? 6? 222.50 ? 2022? 94x?-A ? ? 7? 2021.11.25? ? ? ? ? PE 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2021E 2022E 2023E 688363 ? 813.02 6.46 7.91 11.34 16.31 102.8 71.7 49.8 ?Wind? ? 5.1. ? 35 ?/? ? ? ? 8? 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E ? ? (?) 199.92 195.2

28、7 223.04 239.28 293.14 YoY 14.2% -2.3% 14.2% 7.3% 22.5% ?/g? 3.81 3.60 3.60 3.58 3.56 ? 760.8 703.4 803.5 857.2 1044.3 ? ? (?) 400.0 400.0 2400.00 7400.0 9400.0 ? (?) 390.84 473.4 705.4 917.0 1173.8 YOY ?%? 97.71% 118.35% 29.39% 12.39% 12.49% ?%? 99.93% 99.00% 99.00% 99.00% 99.00% ? ? (?) 390.6 468.

29、7 698.3 907.8 1162.0 YoY 29.5% 20.0% 49.0% 30.0% 28.0% ?/? 1.23 1.18 1.25 1.30 1.35 ? 488.9 575.9 900.2 1199.7 1589.2 ?-? ? (?) 4000.0 5000.0 17000.0 36000.0 46000.0 ? (?) 4741.11 7870.24 10546.13 13709.96 17137.45 YoY 56.5% 66.0% 34.0% 30.0% 25.0% ?/? 8.46 10.58 18.15 22.34 26.81 ? 634.4 1346.1 278

30、6.5 4458.4 6687.6 ? 1885.6 2631.7 4490.2 6515.3 9321.1 YoY 49.3% 39.6% 70.6% 45.1% 43.1% ? 585.6 645.8 791.0 1,134.4 1,631.1 ?Wind? ?1. ?2. ? 2021-2023 ? 27.8 ?44.6 ?65.5 ? ? 9? ? 2021 2022 2023 ? 27.86 44.58 65.54 yoy 107.0% 60% 47% ? 22.29 35.67 52.43 ? 80.00% 80.00% 80.00% ?Wind? ? PS ? A ? 2022

31、? PS10.2 ?10%? 409-500 ? 36 ?/? ? ? ? 10? 2021.11.25? ? ? ? ? PE PS FY20 FY21/E FY22/E FY20 FY21/E FY22/E FY21/E FY22/E FY21/E FY22/E ? (CNY) 388.09 37.52 46.27 54.94 4.76 5.96 7.22 65.1 53.8 8.4 7.1 ? (CNY) 864.31 26.36 37.7 51.66 5.44 7.83 10.85 110.4 79.7 22.9 16.7 ?(EUR) 2,312.39 279.92 316.71 3

32、44.58 35.63 46.16 51.96 50.1 44.5 7.3 6.7 ? 12.9 10.2 ?(CNY) 27.86 44.58 ? 409-500 ?Wind?Bloomberg? *?2021.11.24?FY21/22?Bloomberg? ?1. ?2021 ?2. ? 2021-2023 ? 9.0 ?12.0 ?15.9 ? ? 11? ? 2021 2022 2023 ? 2.7 3.6 4.7 yoy 40.0% 33.0% 30.0% ? 6.0 8.2 11.0 yoy 67.5% 36.2% 34.2% ? 0.3 0.2 0.3 ? 9.0 12.0 1

33、5.9 yoy 56.3% 33.3% 32.5% ? 4.05 5.40 6.71 ? 45.0% 45.0 45.0 ?Wind? ? A ? 21H1 ? 21%? 21 ? 2022 ? PE 67.8 ?+10%?10%? 362-443 ? ? 12? 2021.11.25? ? ? ? ? PE PS FY20 FY21/E FY22/E FY20 FY21/E FY22/E FY21/E FY22/E FY21/E FY22/E ? 238.38 13.32 19.58 25.48 2.30 4.40 5.96 54.2 40.0 12.2 9.4 ? 1,243.25 7.0

34、9 14.08 20.00 4.40 9.05 13.00 137.4 95.7 88.3 62.2 ? 95.8 67.8 50.2 35.8 ? 4.05 5.40 ? ? 362-443 ?Wind? ?1. ? 37 ?/? ? ? ?2. ? 2021-2023 ? 8.0 ?8.6 ?9.2 ? ? 13? ? 2021 2022 2023 ? 8.03 8.57 9.17 yoy 14.2% 6.7% 7.0% ? 3.21 3.43 3.67 ? 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% ?Wind? ? 2022 ?PE? 20%-40%? 33-38 ? 121-141 ? ?

35、14? 2021.11.25? ? ? ? ? PE PS FY20 FY21/E FY22/E FY20 FY21/E FY22/E FY21/E FY22/E FY21/E FY22/E ? 61.41 10.09 11.98 13.58 1.64 1.97 2.24 31.2 27.4 5.1 4.5 ? 3.46 3.67 ? 121-141 ?Wind? ? 892-1084 ? 5.2. ? ? ? DCF ? DCF ? ? DCF ? 1? Rf? 2.92%? 2?2001 ? 11 ? 26 ? 2021 ? 11 ? 25 ? A ? 8.06%? Rm? 3? 52 ?

36、 3 ? beta ?0.96?1.30?1.38?1.67? 1.33? 1.33 ? 4? DCF ? Ke ? 7.9%? 5? 5.00%? 2021 ? 10 ? 5 ? 38 ?/? ? ? ?LPR?4.65%?Kd ? 5%? 6? 15%? 7?D/(D+E)? 20%?2017-2020 ? 8? WACC ? 8.66%? 9?1?2021-2024 ?2?2025-2032 ? 25%?3?2032 ? CPI? 3.0%? ? 15? DCF ? EVA ? ? ? 4,119.9 3.5% ? 2.90% ? 25,290.5 21.3% ? 5.16% ? 89,

37、264.3 75.2% ? 1.33 ? 118,674.8 100.0% Rm 8.06% ?:? 5,103.7 Ke 9.76% ? 123,778.5 Kd 5.00% ?:? 24.1 D/DE 20.00% ?:? -2.4 E/DE 80.00% ? 123,756.8 WACC 8.66% ? 480.0 ? 25.00% ? 257.83 ? 3.00% ?Wind? ? 16? DCF ? ? ? ? 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 2031E 2032E 2032E ?DCF ? 55

38、2.3 882.3 1,387.7 2,067.4 2,584.2 3,230.3 4,037.9 5,047.3 6,309.1 7,886.4 9,858.0 12,322.6 224,239.2 ? 548.2 805.9 1,166.5 1,599.4 1,839.9 2,116.5 2,434.8 2,801.0 3,222.2 3,706.7 4,264.1 4,905.3 89,264.3 ? 118,674.8 ?Wind? ? DCF ? WACC ? 8.66%?0.5%?3.0%?0.5%? 219.31-312.86 ?/? 1053-1502 ? 39 ?/? ? ?

39、 ? 17? WACC ? 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 9.16% 208.19 219.31 232.23 247.43 265.58 287.62 8.96% 215.89 227.90 241.92 258.52 278.45 302.86 8.86% 219.92 232.41 247.03 264.38 285.31 311.02 8.66% 228.37 241.90 257.83 276.84 299.93 328.56 8.56% 232.80 246.90 263.53 283.45 307.73 338.00 8.36% 242.

40、11 257.43 275.61 297.52 324.47 358.39 8.16% 252.07 268.75 288.67 312.86 342.86 381.06 ?Wind? 5.3. ? ? 17,000 ? 2020 ? 3 ? 2021.11.26 ? 2,243.5 ?17,000 ? ? 2020 ? 280 ? 35.6 ? PE63X? Bloomberg ? 2021/2022 ? 46/52 ? 2021PE? 49X?2022PE ? 43X? ? 49? 10 ? ?LOREAL-FINANCE.COM? ? 2,243.5 ? 2021.11.26? ? 40

41、 ?/? ? ? ? 50? ?Bloomberg,? ? 51? PE? ?Bloomberg,? 05001,0001,5002,0002,5000501001502002503003501988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020? ? 01020304050607080900501001502002503003501988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2

42、018 2020? PE? 41 ?/? ? ? 6. ? ?1? ? ?2? ? ?3? ? ?4? ? 42 ?/? ? ? ? ? ? (?) 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E (?) 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E ? 1,885.6 2,632.7 4,492.0 6,517.9 9,324.8 ? ?:? 383.6 489.5 840.5 1,217.3 1,745.0 ? 49.3% 39.6% 70.6% 45.1% 43.1% ? 25.9 34.3 71.9 143.4 212.6 ? 33.4% 8.2% 23.2% 45.

43、0% 43.5% ? 521.4 1,099.3 1,891.2 2,744.8 3,936.0 ? 38.2% 10.3% 22.5% 43.4% 43.8% ? 182.1 161.8 508.9 629.6 811.3 EBITDA ? 39.6% 11.7% 18.1% 47.6% 42.5% ? 93.9 141.2 241.7 376.7 594.9 EBIT ? 40.6% 11.3% 20.8% 50.9% 44.4% ? -12.5 -0.5 -13.9 33.2 59.4 NOPLAT ? 38.9% 12.2% 21.5% 50.9% 44.4% ? -3.9 -16.3

44、 19.0 15.0 19.0 ? 167.5% 17.3% 29.4% 5.9% 27.6% ?:? - 3.3 - - - ? 164.9% 10.3% 12.6% 14.6% 18.6% ? 0.4 34.2 - -5.0 -5.0 ? 699.6 757.0 932.7 1,352.8 1,941.7 ? ?:? 1.5 1.8 -3.0 -20.0 -25.0 ? 79.7% 81.4% 81.3% 81.3% 81.3% ? 701.1 758.9 929.7 1,332.8 1,916.7 ? 37.1% 28.8% 20.8% 20.8% 20.8% ?:? 116.5 113

45、.9 139.5 199.9 287.5 ? 31.1% 24.5% 17.6% 17.4% 17.5% ? 585.6 645.8 791.0 1,134.4 1,631.1 EBITDA/? 39.4% 31.6% 21.8% 22.2% 22.1% EBIT/? 36.2% 28.9% 20.5% 21.3% 21.5% ? ? 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E ? 80 74 48 31 20 ? 2,201.5 1,390.3 1,387.0 1,966.0 2,148.9 ? 133 152 113 107 101 ? - 722.7 722.7 722.7

46、722.7 ? 484 508 326 277 244 ? 379.1 407.1 988.8 1,016.0 1,834.0 ? 56 54 56 55 55 ? 1.4 4.8 123.9 46.9 94.1 ? 47 54 47 48 50 ? 37.1 44.7 67.6 111.1 149.2 ? 672 731 482 378 313 ? 314.5 476.8 684.9 1,051.5 1,522.5 ? 295 334 243 194 159 ? 837.2 617.3 490.3 648.3 585.3 ? - - - - - ? ? - - - - - ROE 12.9%

47、 12.9% 14.0% 17.5% 21.2% ? 14.6 17.9 17.9 17.9 17.9 ROA 11.8% 11.3% 12.5% 15.4% 18.5% ? - - - - - ROIC 68.1% 28.6% 29.6% 34.5% 47.0% ? 459.7 626.7 580.3 533.9 487.5 ? ? 171.8 618.1 618.1 618.1 618.1 ? 27.7% 41.8% 42.1% 42.1% 42.2% ? 385.5 426.7 410.6 394.4 378.3 ? 9.7% 6.1% 11.3% 9.7% 8.7% ? 169.4 3

48、63.9 221.6 243.9 267.7 ? 5.0% 5.4% 5.4% 5.8% 6.4% ? 4,971.7 5,716.9 6,313.7 7,370.6 8,826.2 ? -0.7% 0.0% -0.3% 0.5% 0.6% ? - 24.1 24.1 - - ?/? 41.6% 53.2% 58.5% 58.1% 57.9% ? 151.6 266.3 266.6 562.4 699.1 ? ? - - - - - ? 8.5% 12.2% 10.5% 12.2% 13.0% ? 214.1 262.5 286.7 237.0 335.9 ? 9.3% 13.9% 11.8%

49、 13.8% 14.9% ? - - - - - ? 10.31 6.63 7.73 6.96 6.82 ? 56.4 145.9 88.2 96.8 110.3 ? 9.45 5.76 6.55 5.64 5.35 ? 422.1 698.8 665.6 896.2 1,145.4 ? -54.86 -1,486.72 -65.95 41.77 33.71 ? -0.8 -1.6 -2.4 -3.8 -5.8 ? ? 480.0 480.0 480.0 480.0 480.0 DPS(?) 0.37 0.41 0.33 0.64 0.88 ? 4,071.5 4,539.8 5,170.5 5,998.3 7,206.6 ? 30.3% 30.5% 20.3% 27.0% 25.9% ? 4,549.6 5,018.1 5,648.1 6,474.5 7,680.9 ? 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% ? ? 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E ? 584.6 645.0 791.0 1,134.4 1,631.1 EPS(?) 1.22 1.35 1.65 2.36 3.40 ?:? 62.9 75.0 62.5 62.5 62.5 BVPS(?) 9.48 10.46 11.77