1、Please refer to page 8 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website UNITED STATES CTRP US Outperform Price (at 03:04, 15 Mar 2018 GMT) US$48.73 Valuation US$ 67.00 - PER12-month target US$ 67.00 12-month TSR % +37.5 GICS sector Retailing Market cap US$m 25,010 30-day avg tu
2、rnover US$m 180.6 Number shares on issue m 513.2 Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E Revenue m 26,780 33,108 42,743 52,926 EBIT m 2,926 4,981 9,776 13,790 Reported profit m 2,142 3,715 7,585 10,907 Adjusted profit m 3,976 5,892 10,010 13,425 Gross cashflow m 5,004 6,976 1
3、1,097 14,512 CFPS Rmb 8.62 11.66 18.23 23.46 CFPS growth % 49.7 35.3 56.3 28.7 PGCFPS x 35.7 26.4 16.9 13.1 EPS adj Rmb 6.74 9.84 16.44 21.71 EPS adj growth % 66.2 46.0 67.1 32.1 PER adj x 45.7 31.3 18.7 14.2 Total DPS Rmb 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total div yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ROA % 3.1 4.5 7.5 9.5 R
4、OE % 5.1 6.8 10.9 13.2 EV/EBITDA x 41.4 27.5 15.6 11.5 Net debt/equity % -3.0 -12.7 -23.0 -34.6 P/BV x 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 CTRP US vs S&P 500, & rec history Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period. Source:
5、FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2018 (all figures in Rmb unless noted, TP in USD) Analyst(s) Wendy Huang, CFA+852 3922 Ivy Luo, CFA+852 3922 Marcus Yang+86 21 2412 Frank Chen+852 3922 15 March 2018 Macquarie Capital Limited C International Transition through ST challenges Conclusion 4Q17 revenue
6、came in line, while non-GAAP operating profit and net profitbeating consensus by 7% and 49%, respectively. The company guides 1Q18revenue growth to slow to 9-11% yoy, due to the clean-up of domesticticketing bundle sales and a traffic decline after the day-care center scandal.However, management bel
7、ieves 1Q18 absorbed the biggest impact anddomestic air-ticketing volume has rebounded strongly to 30% yoy since theCNY. The company will also aggressively expand international travel andpenetrate lower-tier cities to drive 30% CAGR in GMV by 2020. Maintain OPat a target price of HK$67 based on 27x F
8、Y19E PER and 1x PEG.Impact 4Q17 earnings beat on solid margin. Net revenue rose 26% yoy toRmb6.4bn in 4Q, in line with consensus. Accommodation revenue increased25% yoy on reservation volume growth. Transportation revenue growthslowed to 20% yoy in 4Q from 41% yoy last quarter, due to a full-quarter
9、regulation impact. Thanks to increasing automation and consolidation ofSkyscanner, gross margin continued to expand despite the removal of bundlesales. Gross margin expanded 6ppts yoy to 83%. Non-GAAP operating profitgrew 15% yoy to Rmb908m, beating consensus by 7%. Non-GAAP EPScame in at Rmb1.56, 4
10、9% above the consensus.Look beyond 1Q18. Ctrip lowered its 1Q18 guidance to 9-11% yoy, belowconsensus 16% yoy, due to the removal of VAS bundle sales and the impactof the PR incident in Nov-17. Management believe 1Q18 will absorb thebiggest impact in terms of yoy revenue growth. We expect growth to
11、re-accelerate to 20% yoy in 2Q18, and further pick up to 31% in 2H18 withincreasing exposure to international travel, recovery in hotel and packagedrevenue from the day-care center scandal and easy yoy comp effect.International business in focus. In 2017, international revenue accountedfor over 20%
12、of the companys revenue, in which international ticketingcontributed over 40% of the ticketing revenue. Management reiteratedInternational expansion as one of the most important focal points for 2018,and said it aims to grow international business to 40-50% of revenue in thenext five years. The inte
13、rnational service platform, T, continued toachieve triple-digit growth in ticketing volume. Ctrip is also starting to generatesynergies from Skyscanner, with its Skycanner conversion rate rising byover 50%.Earnings and target price revision We cut FY18 EPS by 10% to factor in disappointing 1Q18 guid
14、ance, but retainFY19 EPS largely unchanged. We maintain our TP unchanged at US$67.Price catalyst 12-month price target: US$67.00 based on a PER methodology.Catalyst: Fast-growing international business.Action and recommendation We reiterate Ctrip as our top pick, and recommend to buying on weakness.
15、终生学习成长计划立即扫码获取更多报告、方案、文档、模板一切报告均为公开发行版本，一切权力归原作者所有，仅作内部使用！每日分享报告！每周更新报告、方案、文档、模板目录Macquarie Research C International 15 March 2018 2 Analysis 4Q17 review 4Q17 revenue came in-line. Net revenue increased 26% yoy to Rmb6.4bn, 3% below ourestimate but largely in line with consensus. Accommodation reser
16、vation revenue increased 25% yoy to Rmb2.3bn, driven primarily byan increase in reservation volume. Transportation ticketing revenue was up 20% yoy to Rmb 2.9bn, slowing from 41% yoy in 3Q17 due to a full quarter of impact from regulation headwinds. The growth was attributable to increase in ticketi
17、ng volume and the consolidation of Skyscanner. Packaged-tour revenue increased 34% yoy to Rmb623m, on volume growth in both organized and self-guided tours. Corporate travel revenue grew 15% yoy to Rmb207m, partially impacted by the negative publicity from the Kindergarten PR incident in Nov-2017. M
18、argin continued to expand. Albeit the removal of bundle sales, Ctrips profitability continued toimprove. Gross profit margin expanded 6ppts yoy to 83% from 78% same quarter last year, onautomation and continued efficiency improvement. Non-GAAP OPM was down 1ppt yoy to 14%due to rising sales and mark
19、eting expenses. Non-GAAP operating profit rose 15% yoy toRmb908m, 8% below our forecast but beat consensus by 7%. Non-GAAP net profit came in atRmb904m.1Q18 outlook. The company guides 1Q18 revenue to increase 9-11% yoy, below the marketexpectation of 16% yoy. By segment, management expects 1Q18 rev
20、enue growth of 1820% yoyfor accommodation reservation, flat for transportation ticketing, 1015% YoY for packaged tours,and 2025% YoY for corporate travel.Fig 1 4Q17 results review (RMB mn) 4Q16 3Q17 4Q17 YoY QoQ MQ forecast vs MQ forecast Consensus vs consensus Gross revenue 5,179 7,957 6,425 24% -1
21、9% 6,629 -3% Accommodation reservation 1,848 2,820 2,316 25% -18% 2,371 -2% Transportation ticketing 2,446 3,428 2,925 20% -15% 2,937 0% Packaged tour 467 1,033 623 34% -40% 616 1% Corporate travel 179 203 207 15% 2% 209 -1% Others 239 472 354 48% -25% 496 -29% Net revenue 5,067 7,900 6,379 26% -19%
22、 6,582 -3% 6,325 1% Cost of services (1,126) (1,303) (1,061) -6% -19% (1,148) -8% Gross profit 3,941 6,596 5,318 35% -19% 5,434 -2% 5,156 3% GPM 77.8% 83.5% 83.4% 6 ppt 0 ppt 82.6% 0.80 ppt 81.5% 1.85 ppt Operating expenses (3,734) (5,237) (4,810) 29% -8% (5,002) -4% S&M (1,471) (2,378) (2,034) 38%
23、-14% (2,271) -10% G&A (540) (674) (701) 30% 4% (658) 7% R&D (1,722) (2,185) (2,074) 20% -5% (2,073) 0% SBC (589) (384) (400) -32% 4% (559) -28% Non-GAAP operating profit 797 1743 908 14% -48% 991 -8% 851 7% Non-GAAP OPM 15.7% 22.1% 14.2% -1 ppt -8 ppt 15.1% -0.83 ppt 13.4% 0.79 ppt Net profit 645 1,
24、229 504 -22% -59% 172 193% 128 293% Non-GAAP net profit 1,235 1,613 904 -27% -44% 732 24% 637 42% Diluted EPADS (RMB) 1.18 2.10 0.88 -25% -58% 0.29 207% 0.18 386% Non-GAAP diluted EPADS (RMB) 2.24 2.70 1.56 -30% -42% 1.22 28% 1.04 49% Non-GAAP NPM 24.4% 20.4% 14.2% (10 ppts) (6 ppts) 11.1% 3.05 ppt
25、10.1% 4.10 ppt Key assumptions Room nights (mn) 46.8 73.4 60.2 29% -18% Commission per room night (RMB) 39.5 38.4 38.5 -3% 0% No. of air tickets (mn) 58.2 70.6 68.1 17% -3% Commission per ticket (RMB) 37.4 35.8 29.3 -22% -18% Source: Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, March 2018 Macquarie Research C Int
26、ernational 15 March 2018 3 Developing International business In the recent months, Ctrip announced several strategic cooperation agreements with third-party travel companies. We believe these partnership will broaden the international travel services Ctrip provides and help further strengthen the in
27、ternational business. In Nov 2017, Ctrip and Big Bus Tours signed a strategic agreement to provide customers with better access to tour options and in-destination transportation services. Big Bus Tours is the largest operator in terms of market share of open-top sightseeing tours in China, operating
28、 in 19 cities. In Nov and Dec 2017, Ctrip formed a strategic cooperation with the Hungarian Tourism Agency to further boost development and cooperation, and Tennis Australia to enable direct Australian Open ticketing purchase via the Ctrip platform. In Jan 2018, Ctrip Gourmet List partnered with Pri
29、celines OpenTable to enable Ctrip users to book tens of thousands of restaurants in North America. In Feb 2018, Ctrip partnered with South Koreas national rail operator Korail to sell Korean rail tickets, first on T Ctrips Asia Pacific focused platform and later to expand to Ctrips other platforms.
30、In Mar 2018, Ctrip launched an international car rental service on its international one-stop travel booking service platform, T. International customers will now be able to use Ts Car Hire services to book rental cars in more than 6,000 cities, with access to more than 130,000 rental outlets and ov
31、er 7 million car resources. Fig 2 Key assumptions Key Revenue drivers 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E Gross revenue (RMB mn) 11,497 19,788 26,977 33,347 43,052 53,309 Accommodation reservation 4,617 7,309 9,517 12,031 15,560 19,310 Transportation ticketing 4,454 8,827 12,221 14,976 19,897 25,096 Pa
32、ckaged tour 1,668 2,310 2,970 3,738 4,672 5,700 Corporate travel 473 608 753 942 1,139 1,333 Others 285 734 1,515 1,661 1,783 1,870 Net revenue 10,898 19,228 26,780 33,108 42,743 52,926 % of total gross revenue Accommodation reservation 40% 37% 35% 36% 36% 36% Transportation ticketing 39% 45% 45% 45
33、% 46% 47% Packaged tour 15% 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% Corporate travel 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Others 2% 4% 6% 5% 4% 4% YoY growth Total gross revenue 48% 72% 36% 24% 29% 24% Accommodation reservation 44% 58% 30% 26% 29% 24% Transportation ticketing 51% 98% 38% 23% 33% 26% Packaged tour 58% 39% 29% 26% 25% 22%
34、Corporate travel 27% 29% 24% 25% 21% 17% Key assumptions Room nights (mn) 100.0 189.0 251.0 325.7 410.2 496.0 Commission per room night (RMB) 46.2 38.6 37.9 36.9 37.9 38.9 No. of tickets (mn) 99.4 226.6 270.2 353.5 445.4 543.3 Commission per ticket (RMB) 40.0 34.8 32.5 28.0 29.3 29.9 Source: Company
35、 data, Macquarie Research, March 2018 Macquarie Research C International 15 March 2018 4 Estimate revisions We cut FY18 EPS by 10% as we factor in the much lower-than-expected 1Q18 outlook. We trim our FY19 EPS by 1%, as we maintain our long-term view on the company and are positive on the developme
36、nt of its international business. We maintain Outperform and our target price of US$67, unchanged. Fig 3 Estimate revisions New estimates (RMB mn) 1Q18E 2018E 2019E 2020E Net revenue 6,754 33,108 42,743 52,926 Gross profit 5,603 27,681 35,932 44,594 Non-GAAP operation profit 942 7,158 12,201 16,308
37、Non-GAAP operation margin 13.9% 21.6% 28.5% 30.8% Non-GAAP net profit 795 5,892 10,010 13,425 Non-GAAP diluted EPS (RMB) 1.34 9.85 16.44 21.71 Old estimates (RMB mn) 1Q18E 2018E 2019E 2020E Net revenue 7,376 33,759 42,173 51,502 Gross profit 5,979 27,963 35,051 42,967 Non-GAAP operation profit 1,073
38、 7,938 12,282 16,284 Non-GAAP operation margin 14.6% 23.5% 29.1% 31.6% Non-GAAP net profit 942 6,682 10,306 13,701 Non-GAAP diluted EPS (RMB) 1.56 11.00 16.67 21.73 Revision 1Q18E 2018E 2019E 2020E Net revenue -8% -2% 1% 3% Gross profit -6% -1% 3% 4% Non-GAAP operation profit -12% -10% -1% 0% Non-GA
39、AP operation margin -0.6 ppt -1.9 ppt -0.6 ppt -0.8 ppt Non-GAAP net profit -16% -12% -3% -2% Non-GAAP diluted EPS -14% -10% -1% 0% Source: Macquarie Research, March 2018 Macquarie Research C International 15 March 2018 5 Fig 4 Ratio summary YE 31 December 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 17-18E 18
40、E-19E 19E-22E Per ADS EPADS (Non-GAAP Diluted) (USD) 1.42 0.58 1.02 1.51 2.53 3.34 48% 67% 26% EPADS (diluted) (USD) 1.13 -0.42 0.55 0.95 1.92 2.71 73% 101% 32% DPADS (USD) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - - - BVPADS (USD) 20.07 20.83 21.75 22.72 24.24 26.56 4% 7% 11% Cash per ADS (USD) -0.60 -2.11 0
41、.66 2.95 5.68 9.33 345% 92% 49% Avg. ADS - Basic (mn) 302.0 473.2 530.3 546.8 556.4 565.4 3% 2% 2% Avg. ADS - Diluted (mn) 342.7 494.6 580.6 598.2 608.7 618.5 3% 2% 2% Value EV/Revenue X 15.4x 9.6x 6.8x 5.3x 4.1x 3.3x - - - EV/EBITDA X 254.4x -223.8x 46.4x 29.4x 16.4x 12.0 x - - - EV/FCF X 32.6x -72
42、1.5x 35.9x 18.9x 15.6x 11.6x - - - P/E (Non-GAAP) X 34.3x 83.5x 47.7x 32.2x 19.3x 14.6x - - - P/E (non-GAAP, ex cash) X 34.8x 87.1x 47.1x 30.2x 17.0 x 11.8x - - - Price/ Sales X 16.4x 10.2x 7.2x 5.7x 4.4x 3.6x - - - Price/ Book X 2.4x 2.3x 2.2x 2.1x 2.0 x 1.8x - - - Profit & Loss Gross Revenue (USD
43、mn) 1,775 2,850 4,023 5,125 6,617 8,193 27% 29% 21% Net Revenue (USD mn) 1,682 2,769 3,994 5,089 6,569 8,135 27% 29% 21% EBITDA (USD mn) 108 (122) 590 932 1,670 2,288 58% 79% 30% Non-GAAP operating Profit (USD mn) 158 287 710 1,100 1,875 2,507 55% 70% 28% Net Income (USD mn) 387 -206 319 571 1,166 1
44、,676 79% 104% 34% Non-GAAP Net Income (USD mn) 486 307 593 906 1,539 2,063 53% 70% 28% Profitability Gross margin % 72.1% 75.4% 82.5% 83.6% 84.1% 84.3% 108 bps 46 bps 36 bps EBITDA Margin % 6.4% -4.4% 14.8% 18.3% 25.4% 28.1% 356 bps 709 bps 645 bps Non-GAAP Operating Margin % 9.4% 10.4% 17.8% 21.6%
45、28.5% 30.8% 385 bps 692 bps 553 bps Net Margin % 23.0% -7.4% 8.0% 11.2% 17.7% 20.6% 322 bps 653 bps 669 bps Non-GAAP Net Margin % 28.9% 11.1% 14.8% 17.8% 23.4% 25.4% 295 bps 562 bps 478 bps Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow (USD mn) 1,254 165 957 1,589 1,917 2,534 66% 21% 25% Free Cash Flow : (USD mn) 8
46、40 (38) 763 1,448 1,760 2,362 90% 22% 26% +EBIT*(1-t) (USD mn) 50 -287 277 551 1,131 1,622 99% 105% 34% +D&A (USD mn) 49 104 153 167 167 169 9% 0% 2% +Capex & Investments (USD mn) -99 -98 -107 -121 -133 -147 13% 10% 10% +Change in NWC (USD mn) 840 244 440 852 595 718 94% -30% 10% Yield Dividend Yiel
47、d % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 bps 0 bps 0 bps FCF Yield % 5.0% -0.2% 2.7% 5.0% 5.9% 7.8% 227 bps 97 bps 525 bps Earnings Yield % 2.9% 1.2% 2.1% 3.1% 5.2% 6.8% 101 bps 208 bps 517 bps Balance Sheet Net debt (cash) (USD mn) 205 1,044 (386) (1,767) (3,460) (5,773) 358% 96% 52% Net debt/ equity %
48、3% 10% cash cash cash cash - - - Shareholders Equity (USD mn) 6,877 10,303 12,630 13,588 14,754 16,430 8% 9% 13% Efficiency ROE (average) % 9.3% -2% 3% 4% 8% 11% 155 bps 393 bps 581 bps ROA (average) % 3% -1% 1% 2% 5% 6% 91 bps 235 bps 427 bps ROIC (average) % 2% 2% 4% 6% 10% 13% 194 bps 411 bps 716
49、 bps Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2018 Macquarie Research C International 15 March 2018 6 Fig 5 Financial statement YE 31 December 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 17-18E 18E-19E 19E-22E Consolidated income statement (Rmb m) Gross revenue 11,497 19,788 26,977 33,347 43,052 53,309 24% 29% 21% Hotel reservation 4,617 7,309 9,517 12,031 15,560 19,310 26% 29% 21% Air-ticketing 4,454 8,827 12,221 14,976 19,897 25,096 23% 33% 22% Packaged tour 1,668 2,310 2,970 3,738 4,672 5,700 26% 25% 19% Corporate travel 473 608 753 942 1,139 1,333 25% 21% 15% Others 285 734 1,515 1,661 1,783
