1、2022APRGLOBALFINANCIALSTABILITYREPORTShockwaves from the War in Ukraine Test the Financial Systems ResilienceINTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信：xxyg_weixxyg_wei备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划
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3、om the War in Ukraine Test the Financial Systems Resilience2022 International Monetary FundIMF CSF Creative Solutions DivisionComposition: AGS, An RR Donnelley CompanyCataloging-in-Publication DataIMF LibraryNames: International Monetary Fund.Title: Global financial stability report.Other titles: GF
4、SR | World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2002- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles. | Began with issue for March 2002.Subjects: LCSH: Capital marketStatisticsPeriodicals. | International financeForecastingPeriodic
5、als. | Economic stabilizationPeriodicals.Classification: LCC HG4523.G557ISBN 979-8-40020-529-3 (Paper) 979-8-40020-559-0 (ePub) 979-8-40020-577-4 (PDF)Disclaimer: The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report draw
6、s out the financial ramifications of economic issues high-lighted in the IMFs World Economic Outlook (WEO). The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on April 11, 2022. The views expressed in
7、 this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMFs Executive Directors or their national authorities.Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2022. Global Financial Stability ReportShockwaves from the War in Ukraine Test the Financial System
8、s Resilience. Washington, DC, April.Please send orders to:International Monetary Fund, Publications ServicesP.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail: publicationsimf.org www.bookstore.imf.orgwww.elibrary.imf.org International Monetary Fund | April 20
9、22 iiiCONTENTSAssumptions and Conventions viFurther Information viiPreface viiiForeword ixExecutive Summary xiIMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2022 xvChapter 1 The Financial Stability Implications of the War in Ukraine 1 Chapter 1 at a Glance 1 The War in Ukraine Raises Immediate
10、 Financial Stability Risks and Questions about the Longer-Term Impact on Markets 1 Implications of Higher Commodity Prices for Monetary Policy 7 Transmission Channels of the War through Financial Intermediaries and Markets 12 Emerging Markets Have Come under Pressure, with Notable Differences across
11、 Countries 24 Financial Vulnerabilities Remain Elevated in China amid Ongoing Stress in the Property Development Sector and COVID-19 Risks 29 Selected Medium-Term Structural Challenges Policymakers Will Need to Confront 30 Policy Recommendations 34 Policy Recommendations to Address Specific Financia
12、l Stability Risks 35 Box 1.1. Extreme Volatility in Commodities: The Nickel Trading Suspension 38 References 40Chapter 2 The Sovereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets: A Risky Embrace 41 Chapter 2 at a Glance 41 Introduction 41 Sovereign-Bank Interlinkages: Conceptual Framework 46 Relevance of the So
13、vereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets: Some Stylized Facts 47 Deepening of the Sovereign-Bank Nexus during the COVID-19 Pandemic 50 Measuring the Strength of the Sovereign-Bank Nexus 50 Evidence about the Transmission Channels 52 Conclusion and Policy Recommendations 59 Box 2.1. The Drivers of Bank
14、s Sovereign Debt Exposure in Emerging Markets 62 References 64Chapter 3 The Rapid Growth of Fintech: Vulnerabilities and Challenges for Financial Stability 65 Chapter 3 at a Glance 65 Introduction 65 Fintechs in Banking: Conceptual Framework and Risks 67 Case Study: Neobanks 68 Case Study: Fintechs
15、in the US Home Mortgage Market 72 Decentralized Finance: Vulnerable Efficiency 73 Financial Stability and Policy Issues 81 References 83GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT: SHOCKWAVES FROM THE WAR IN UKRAINE TEST THE FINANCIAL SYSTEMS RESILIENCEiv International Monetary Fund | April 2022Tables Table 3
16、.1. Comparison of Decentralized Finance and Traditional Financial Services 75Figures Figure 1.1. Russian and Ukrainian Assets Have Come under Heavy Pressure Following the War in Ukraine 3 Figure 1.2. Impact of the War in Ukraine on Commodities 4 Figure 1.3. Impact of the War in Ukraine on Financial
17、Assets 5 Figure 1.4. Financial Market Volatility Has Picked Up Dramatically 6 Figure 1.5. Global Financial Conditions 6 Figure 1.6. Global Growth-at-Risk 7 Figure 1.7. Drivers of Advanced Economy Bond Yields 8 Figure 1.8. Increase in Advanced Economy Policy Rates 10 Figure 1.9. A Challenging Normali
18、zation Process 11 Figure 1.10. Inflation and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets 12 Figure 1.11. Foreign Bank Exposures to Russia and Ukraine 14 Figure 1.12. Over-the-Counter Derivative Exposures of International and Domestic Banks in Russia, End-2021 15 Figure 1.13. Exposure to Russian Assets by For
19、eign Nonbank Financial Intermediaries 16 Figure 1.14. Investor Challenges in Russian Security Markets 18 Figure 1.15. Impact from Russias Exclusion from Global Benchmark Indices 19 Figure 1.16. Commodity Trading Companies Have Been Exposed to a Spike in Volatility 20 Figure 1.17. Short-Term Dollar F
20、unding Tensions and Market Liquidity 21 Figure 1.18. Corporate Sector amid the War in Ukraine 23 Figure 1.19. Emerging Market Financial Spillovers 25 Figure 1.20. Emerging Market Portfolio Flow Pressures Have Intensified 27 Figure 1.21. Crypto Asset Markets 28 Figure 1.22. Stress in the Chinese Prop
21、erty Development Sector 30 Figure 1.23. Chinese Property Development Spillovers 31 Figure 1.24. The War in Ukraine Tests the Climate Challenge 32 Figure 1.1.1. The Nickel Market Short Squeeze in March 2022 39 Figure 2.1. Developments in Emerging Market Public Debt and Banks Sovereign Exposures 42 Fi
22、gure 2.2. Fiscal Vulnerabilities in Emerging Markets 44 Figure 2.3. Banks Exposure to Sovereign Debt in Emerging Markets 45 Figure 2.4. Key Channels of the Sovereign-Bank Adverse Feedback Loop 46 Figure 2.5. Association between Emerging Market Sovereign and Banking Sector Default Risk 48 Figure 2.6.
23、 Sovereign Debt and Banking Crises in a Historical Context: Emerging Markets versus Advanced Economies 49 Figure 2.7. Sovereign-Bank Nexus in Emerging Markets during the COVID-19 Pandemic 51 Figure 2.8. Transmission of Risks through the Sovereign-Bank Nexus: Strength of the Main Channels across Emer
24、ging Markets 52 Figure 2.9. Sovereign and Bank Default Risk and Tightening of Global Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets 53 Figure 2.10. Transmission of Sovereign Risk through the Exposure Channel 54 Figure 2.11. The Banking Sector Safety Net in Emerging Market Economies 56 Figure 2.12. The Eff
25、ects of Sovereign Downgrades on Firms 58 Figure 2.1.1. Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt 62 Figure 2.1.2. Drivers of Bank Holdings of Sovereign Debt in Emerging Markets 63 Figure 3.1. The Rise of Fintech Firms and Decentralized Finance 66 Figure 3.2. Fintechs in the Core Banking Intermediation Chain 6
26、8 Figure 3.3. The Increasing Relevance of Neobanks 69 Figure 3.4. Client Profile of Neobanks 70 Figure 3.5. Credit Risk Profile 71Contents International Monetary Fund | April 2022 v Figure 3.6. Margins, Profitability, and Liquidity Profiles of Neobanks 72 Figure 3.7. Fintechs in the US Home Mortgage
27、 Market 74 Figure 3.8. Recent Development of DeFi Lending 76 Figure 3.9. Decentralized Finance Market Risks 77 Figure 3.10. Decentralized Finance Liquidity Risks 78 Figure 3.11. Cyberattacks on Decentralized Finance 79 Figure 3.12. Efficiency and Risks of Decentralized Finance 80Online Boxes and Ann
28、exes Online Box 1.1. Indicator-Based Framework Update Online Annex 2.1. Data Sources and Sample Online Annex 2.2. The Role of Nonbank Financial Institutions in the Nexus Online Annex 2.3. Additional Stylized Facts Online Annex 2.4. The Drivers of Banks Holdings of Sovereign Debt in Emerging Markets
29、Online Annex 2.5. Measuring the Strength of the Nexus Online Annex 2.6. Exposure Channel Analysis Online Annex 2.7. Safety Net Channel Analysis Online Annex 2.8. The Macroeconomic Channel Analysis Online Annex 3.1. Case Study on Neobanks Online Annex 3.2. Case Study: US Mortgage Market Online Annex
30、3.3. Risk Analysis on DeFi Lending Online Annex 3.4. Efficiency Analysis on Financial Institutions and DeFi Platformsvi International Monetary Fund | April 2022ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONSThe following conventions are used throughout the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR):. . . to indicate that
31、 data are not available or not applicable; to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown or that the item does not exist; between years or months (for example, 202122 or JanuaryJune) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or mo
32、nths;/ between years or months (for example, 2021/22) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.“Billion” means a thousand million.“Trillion” means a thousand billion.“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to of 1 percentage point).If no s
33、ource is listed on tables and figures, data are based on IMF staff estimates or calculations.Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown reflect rounding.As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a
34、 state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the map
35、s do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. International Monetary Fund | April 2022 viiFURTHER INFORMATIONCorrections and RevisionsThe data and analysis appearing in the Global
36、 Financial Stability Report are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of publication. Every effort is made to ensure their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. When errors are discovered, corrections and revisions are incorporated into the digital editions available from the IMF website and on th
37、e IMF eLibrary (see below). All substantive changes are listed in the online table of contents.Print and Digital EditionsPrintPrint copies of this Global Financial Stability Report can be ordered from the IMF bookstore at imfbk.st/516157.DigitalMultiple digital editions of the Global Financial Stabi
38、lity Report, including ePub, enhanced PDF, and HTML, are available on the IMF eLibrary at www.elibrary.imf.org/APR22GFSR.Download a free PDF of the report and data sets for each of the charts therein from the IMF website at www.imf.org/publications/gfsr or scan the QR code below to access the Global
39、 Financial Stability Report web page directly:Copyright and ReuseInformation on the terms and conditions for reusing the contents of this publication are at www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.viii International Monetary Fund | April 2022PREFACEThe Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) assesses key vu
40、lnerabilities the global financial system is exposed to. In normal times, the report seeks to play a role in preventing crises by highlighting policies that may mitigate systemic risks, thereby contributing to global financial stability and the sustained economic growth of the IMFs member countries.
41、The analysis in this report was coordinated by the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department under the general direction of Tobias Adrian, Director. The project was directed by Fabio Natalucci, Deputy Director; Ranjit Singh, Assistant Director; Nassira Abbas, Deputy Division Chief; Antonio Garci
42、a Pascual, Deputy Division Chief; Evan Papageorgiou, Deputy Division Chief; Mahvash Qureshi, Division Chief; and Jrme Vandenbussche, Deputy Division Chief. It benefited from comments and suggestions from the senior staff in the MCM Department.Individual contributors to the report were Jose Abad, Ser
43、gei Antoshin, Parma Bains, Liumin Chen, Yingyuan Chen, Fabio Cortes, Reinout De Bock, Andrea Deghi, Mohamed Diaby, Dimitris Drakopoulos, Tor-sten Ehlers, Salih Fendoglu, Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini, Deepali Gautam, Rohit Goel, Sanjay Hazarika, Frank Hespeler, Henry Hoyle, Shoko Ikarashi, Tara Iyer,
44、Phakawa Jeasakul, Esti Kemp, Oksana Khadarina, Sheheryar Malik, Fabiana Melo, Junghwan Mok, Kleopatra Nikolaou, Natalia Novikova, Thomas Piontek, Patrick Schneider, Nobuyasu Sugimoto, Hamid Reza Tabarraei, Tomohiro Tsuruga, Jeffrey David Williams, Hong Xiao, Yizhi Xu, Dmitry Yakovlev, Mustafa Yenice
45、, Akihiko Yokoyama, Zhichao Yuan, and Xingmi Zheng. Javier Chang, Monica Devi, Olga Tamara Maria Lefebvre, and Srujana Sammeta were responsible for word processing.Gemma Rose Diaz from the Communications Department led the editorial team and managed the reports production with editorial assistance f
46、rom David Einhorn, Harold Medina (and team), Lucy Scott Morales, Nancy Morrison, Grauel Group, and TalentMEDIA Services.This issue of the GFSR draws in part on a series of discussions with banks, securities firms, asset management companies, hedge funds, standard setters, financial consultants, pens
47、ion funds, trade associations, central banks, national treasuries, and academic researchers.This GFSR reflects information available as of April 7, 2022. The report benefited from comments and sugges-tions from staff in other IMF departments, as well as from Executive Directors following their discu
48、ssions of the GFSR on April 11, 2022. However, the analysis and policy considerations are those of the contributing staff and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Directors, or their national authorities. International Monetary Fund | April 2022 ixFOREWORDThe backdrop of this Global Fi
49、nancial Stability Report is a challenging one. Rising risks to the inflation outlook and rapidly changing views about the likely pace of monetary policy tightening have been dominant themes affecting financial stability. Juxtaposed against financial stability risks is the Russian invasion of Ukraine
50、, which will exert a material drag on the global recovery and pose significant uncertainties to the outlook. The balance of risks to growth has tilted more firmly to the downside as outlined in the April 2022 World Economic Outlook. These developments have occurred just as the world is slowly bringi
