1、C O R P O R AT I O NEMMI YONEKURA, BRIAN DOLAN, MOON KIM, KRISTA ROMITA GROCHOLSKI, RAZA KHAN, YOOL KIMCommercial Space Capabilities and Market OverviewThe Relationship Between Commercial Space Developments and the U.S. Department of DefenseResearch ReportRR-A578-2 Commercial Space Capabilities and
2、Market Overview Cover.indd All Pages4/4/22 1:24 PM群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 群内每日免费分享5份+最新资料 300T网盘资源+4040万份行业报告为您的创业、职场、商业、投资、亲子、网赚、艺术、健身、心理、个人成长 全面赋能！添加微信：xxyg_weixxyg_wei备注“入群”立刻免费领取 立刻免费领取 200套知识地图+最新研报收钱文案、增长黑客、产品运营、品牌企划、营销战略、办公软件、会计财务、广告设计、摄影修图、视频剪辑、直播带货、电商运营、投资理财、汽车房产、餐饮烹饪、职场经验、演讲口才、风水命理、心理思维、恋爱情趣、美妆护肤、
3、健身瘦身、格斗搏击、漫画手绘、声乐训练、自媒体打造、效率软件工具、游戏影音扫码先加好友，以备不时之需扫码先加好友，以备不时之需行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报行业报告/思维导图/电子书/资讯情报致终身学习者社群致终身学习者社群关注公众号获取更多资料关注公众号获取更多资料For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RRA578-2.About RANDThe RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public
4、 policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. To learn more about RAND, visit www.rand.org.Research IntegrityOur mission to help improve policy and decisionm
5、aking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publicati
6、ons to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to th
7、e open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.RANDs publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its re
8、search clients and sponsors.Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. 2022 RAND Corporation is a registered trademark.Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication.ISBN: 978-1-9774-0920-1Cover: NASA. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Right
9、sThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as lon
10、g as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. iii About This Report The U.S. Space Force (US
11、SF) and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) are examining and pursuing various ways to leverage commercial space capabilities as part of their policy goals to promote the U.S. space industry and their strategy for improving the national security space architecture. As the commercial space industry cont
12、inues to grow in capability, capacity, and diversity, opportunities for the USSF and DoD to leverage commercial capabilities are expanding. Specifically, the USSF is considering the role of the commercial space industry in its future space architecture and the innovation ecosystem. It is faced with
13、many choices about which commercial capability to leverage or for which military application it should use commercial instead of organic space capabilities. Making such choices requires a thorough assessment of commercial space capabilities to understand the benefits, risks, and costs associated wit
14、h using them and inform decisions about trade-offs across those dimensions based on the priorities of the USSF and other relevant stakeholders. To inform decisions related to leveraging commercial space capabilities, the RAND Corporation developed an analytic framework for a systematic and holistic
15、assessment of the benefits, risks, and costs associated with commercial space options. The results of this research are reported in a series of reports and a spreadsheet tool. Leveraging Commercial Space Capabilities to Enhance the Space Architecture of the U.S. Department of Defense. This report is
16、 not available to the general public. Commercial Space Capabilities and Market Overview: The Relationship Between Commercial Space Developments and the U.S. Department of Defense (RR-A578-2) characterizes capabilities and trends in the commercial space sector. The cutoff date for information gathere
17、d and included in this report is June 15, 2020, and there are rapid changes in the commercial space industry. A Framework for an Integrated Assessment of Commercial Space Capabilities. This report is not available to the general public. RAND Corporation Spreadsheet Tool to Assess Commercial Capabili
18、ties in Space (STACCS) (TL-A578-1). This tool is not available to the general public. The research reported here was commissioned by the Office of U.S. Space Force Strategic Requirements, Architectures and Analysis (USSF S5/9)1 and conducted within the Force 1 When this project began, the sponsoring
19、 office was Air Force Space Command HQ A5/9, which became U.S. Space Force Strategic Requirements, Architectures and Analysis (USSF S5/9). Shortly after the completion of our research, USSF S5/9 was disbanded, with its roles and responsibilities moved to the newly established USSF Headquarters at th
20、e Pentagon. iv Modernization and Employment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2020 project, A Robust Strategy for Leveraging Commercial Space Capabilities. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the Department of the Air F
21、orces (DAFs) federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses, supporting both the United States Air Force and the United States Space Force. PAF provides the DAF with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and su
22、pport of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment; Resource Management; and Workforce, Development, and Health. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additiona
23、l information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf This report documents work originally shared with the DAF on February 3, 2020. The draft report, issued on September 30, 2020, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and DAF subject-matter experts. Acknowledgments We would like to
24、thank Lt Gen William Liquori, Jr., Deputy Chief of Space Operations, Strategy, Plans, Programs, Requirements, and Analysis, Headquarters, USSF, for supporting this project and providing very helpful guidance. We are grateful to our project monitor, Chris Ayres, Space Operations Command, Deputy Comma
25、nding General Operations, Deputy Director (formerly USSF S5/9 Technical Director and Advanced Capabilities), for his support, insight, and assistance throughout the project. We would also like to thank the industry representatives from Intelsat, SES, Amazon Web Services Ground Station, Atlas Space O
26、perations, ExoAnalytic Solutions, Numerica, and Rincon, who participated in our data-collection effort and discussions. This work also benefited greatly from discussions with Lt Col Paul Muller, a RAND Air Force fellow, about the SATCOM mission, and with RAND colleague George Nacouzi about the remot
27、e sensing and space domain awareness missions. We also thank Barbara Bicksler for her communications support to improve the clarity and readability of the report. The content and recommendations of this report, however, are the responsibility of the authors. v Summary Issue The U.S. Space Force (USS
28、F) and U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) are considering various ways to leverage commercial space capabilities as part of their policy goals to promote the U.S. space industry and improve the resiliency of the national security space architecture. The commercial space sector offers a range of capabi
29、lities and services, including emerging technologies. The commercial capability, commercial capacity, and demand signals from the U.S. government have rapidly evolved recently for many space capabilities. As the USSF and DoD face choices about leveraging commercial space capabilities, they need to b
30、e aware of the current capabilities and trends of the commercial space sector. Approach The analysis was conducted by reviewing past assessments of commercial space capabilities and open-source literature to characterize capabilities, technological innovation, and trends of the space sector. Where n
31、eeded, we collected additional new information from relevant government organizations and space service providers. We reviewed the commercial space capabilities of satellite communications (SATCOM), space launch, remote sensing, environmental monitoring, space domain awareness, data transmit/receive
32、 networks, and space logistics. Commercial capabilities were limited to U.S. companies or companies with a U.S. subsidiary. Observations More-established commercial space sectors are growing in capacity and capability. The SATCOM sector has begun using high-throughput satellites and is planning prol
33、iferated low earth orbit constellations. The space launch sector has had two new National Security Space Launch (NSSL)class entrants, is developing super-heavy launch vehicles (LVs), and has a growing number of small LV entrants. The remote sensing sector has a quickly growing number of multi-satell
34、ite constellations and diversity in sensor phenomenology and analytic products. New entrants are also responsible for recent growth in the commercial space industry. The growth and evolution of new entrants have been driven by small satellite technologies and the proliferated constellation model, ad
35、vanced manufacturing, use of artificial intelligence and machine learning, and venture capital investments. Among the new space sectors, some will serve commercial space operators, while other new space sectors will primarily target government customers. Driven by the commercial proliferation of spa
36、ce, space domain awareness entrants will offer enhanced collision warnings, and ground station entrants will provide data-transport services to vi offer timely downlink of high-volume data (i.e., for remote sensing satellites). Environmental monitoring entrants are collecting Global Navigation Satel
37、lite System Radio Occultation (GNSS-RO) data for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) and DoD. Space logistics entrants are planning space debrisremoval services and on-orbit servicing for satellite life extension, both of which garner interest from government space programs. Recommend
38、ations All space sectors we reviewed have experienced changes in the past five years (Table S.1), indicating that it is important for DoD and other stakeholders to periodically update their information about the industry. These industries changed quite a bit during our research alone, so it may be n
39、ecessary to update information annually when startups are involved. DoD and other stakeholders should track several technology-development and commercial-viability factors going forward, because these will have significant impacts on the space market (see Table S.1). Table S.1. Recent and Future Dev
40、elopments in the Commercial Space Industry Sector Changes in Recent Years Futures to Watch Satellite communication Increased commercial capacity with increased market demand Added global broadband capacity from nongeosynchronous satellite operator constellations Space launch Increase in the number o
41、f launch-service providers across all launch classes Technology developments: reusability, on-orbit reignition, increase lift capacity Effect of NSSL Phase 2 contract award on the market Remote sensing Expansion in current and planned proliferated low earth orbit launches Size of commercial market a
42、nd financial viability of startups Environmental monitoring NOAA and DoD focus on GNSS-RO Success in some GNSS-RO launch and operationscommercial and government Lack of progress in hyperspectral soundings New startups with developments in microwave, electro-optical/infrared, and space weather capabi
43、lities Space domain awareness Increased demand with more entrants into space domain Size of commercial market and financial viability of startups Space proliferation driving demand and/or collaboration Data transmit/ receive networks (ground stations) New U.S. companies offering ground stations as a
44、 service for commercial and government customers Electronically steered antennas/multiphase array Optical communications technology Space logistics (on-orbit servicing) Launch of only one company Developing niche capabilities from a few companies Realization of technological developments, enabling o
45、n-orbit refueling, assembly, and manufacturing SOURCE: RAND analysis of open-source reporting. vii Contents About This Report . iiiSummary . vFigures and Tables . ix1. Introduction . 1Organization of This Report . 52. Satellite Communications . 6Mission Scope . 6Market Overview . 6Key Company Assess
46、ments . 113. Space Launch . 17Mission Scope . 17Market Overview . 17Key Company Assessments . 204. Remote Sensing . 25Mission Scope . 25Market Overview . 25Key Company Assessments . 315. Environmental Monitoring . 34Mission Scope . 34Market Overview . 35Key Company Assessments . 376. Space Domain Aw
47、areness . 39Mission Scope . 39Market Overview . 41Key Company Assessments . 437. Data Transmit/Receive Networks . 45Mission Scope . 45Market Overview . 45Key Company Assessments . 478. Space Logistics . 51Mission Scope . 51Market Overview . 51Key Company Assessments . 549. Conclusion . 56Commercial
48、Space Industry Observations . 56Summaries by Space Mission . 56Recommendations . 61 viii Abbreviations . 62References . 64 ix Figures and Tables Figures Figure 2.1. Revenues of Four Major SATCOM Service Providers . 7Figure 4.1. Estimated Number of Commercial Remote Sensing Satellites, 19952023 . 27F
49、igure 4.2. Commercial Satellite Remote Sensing Global Revenue, 20092018 . 28Figure 4.3. Capabilities of Commercial Remote Sensing Constellations . 30Figure 7.1. Ground-Station Locations for Commercial GSaaS Networks . 50Tables Table S.1. Recent and Future Developments in the Commercial Space Industr
50、y . viTable 1.1. DoD Motivation for Leveraging Commercial Space by Mission . 4Table 2.1. 2018 Commercial SATCOM Services Market Revenue (Excluding Satellite TV and Radio) . 6Table 2.2. Total Revenue for the Major SATCOM Companies . 9Table 2.3. Key Geostationary Satellite Operators . 12Table 2.4. Key
