1、本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。1 1 Utilities | Company Research Bringing China to the World SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 17 May 2016 减持 首次首次覆盖覆盖 危机危机四伏四伏 新奥能源 (2688 HK
2、) Market Data: May, 16 Closing Price (HK$) 37.65 Price Target (HK$) 32.84 HSCEI 8,313 HSCCI 3,514 52-week High/Low (HK$) 59.60/31.85 Market Cap (US$m) 5,240 Market Cap (HK$m) 40,750 Shares Outstanding (m) 1,083 Exchange Rate (RMB-HK$) 1.19 Price Performance Chart: Source: Bloomberg Analyst Vincent Y
3、u, CFA A0230513070005 BAM599 Research associate Carter Feng A0230116010003 BHC537 Financial summary and valuation 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Revenue (RMB M) 29,087 32,063 32,944 35,645 38,483 YoY (%) 26.65 10.23 2.75 8.20 7.96 Net income (RMB M) 2,966 2,094 2,811 2,922 3,131 YoY (%) 136.90 (29.40)
4、34.22 3.96 7.14 EPS (RMB) 2.74 1.88 2.60 2.70 2.89 Diluted EPS (RMB) 2.06 1.88 2.60 2.70 2.89 ROE (%) 22.44 13.67 16.46 15.32 14.78 Debt/asset (%) 66.21 65.77 64.07 62.05 58.55 Dividend Yield (%) 1.74 1.65 2.41 2.51 2.69 PE (x) 11.55 16.83 12.19 11.73 10.94 PB (x) 2.36 2.19 1.90 1.71 1.54 EV/Ebitda
5、(x) 5.23 9.06 9.20 5.36 4.32 Note: Diluted EPS is calculated as if all outstanding convertible securities, such as convertible preferred shares, convertible debentures, stock options and warrants, were exercised. 投资要点：投资要点： 新奥能源是国内最大的城市燃气分销商之一。新奥能源是国内最大的城市燃气分销商之一。公司主要从事建造、经营城市燃气管道，向工商业用户及居民用户分销天然气。新
6、奥能源 15 年 81%的收入来自于售气业务，另有 17%的收入来源于接驳业务，其中接驳毛利占总毛利的 50%。基于当前天然气需求放缓，接驳利润增长前景走弱，以及政府天然气降价预期导致毛利削减的潜在风险，我们认为目前新奥能源价值可能被高估。我们首次覆盖，给予公司减持评级。 天然气需求放缓。天然气需求放缓。天然气行业在经历了过去五年年均 12%高复合增长之后，15 年天然气表观消费量为 1930 亿立方米（同比仅增长 5.7%） ，主要因为 15 年经济增速放缓以及油价暴跌导致天然气价格相对于其替代能源如液化石油气和燃料油的经济性大不如前。尽管发改委制定的未来五年计划显示，到 2020 年天然气
7、年均复合增长仍将维持 13%的高增速，但谨慎估计车用气和燃气发电需求增长，我们预计未来五年天然气年均复合增长将为 9%，从而到 2020 年需求将达到 3010 亿方。考虑到公司目前在行业内相对较高的项目气化率，以及有限的新项目收购能力，我们预计公司未来三年售气量（不含批发气）年均增长为 9%。 潜在售气毛利收窄风险。潜在售气毛利收窄风险。由于城市燃气项目拥有 30 年的排他性特许经营权，以及目前居民气阶梯气价的进一步实施，将保证新奥能源未来三年的售气毛利较为稳定。但是，如考虑今年潜在0.3-0.6元/立方米天然气终端气价下调和16年居民气涨价从而与非居民气价格并轨的风险，我们认为新奥能源售气
8、毛利存在较大下行风险，从而影响其售气业务的长期盈利能力。 接驳数和接驳费均下滑。接驳数和接驳费均下滑。新奥能源 15 年接驳数为 170 万户（同比增长 29.1%），主要因为15 年公司加快了老户接驳（占 15 年总接驳数的 30%）。由于接驳地区变化，平均接驳费同比下降 3.2%至 2762 元/ 户，由于老楼接驳成本高，毛利下降 0.2 个百分点至 62.9%。基于申万宏源房地产团队对于三四线房市中长期持续疲软的预测，以及公司未来几年将致力于现有项目和老楼接驳的策略，我们预计公司新增接驳数将逐年下滑，由 16 年的 155万户下降至 18 年的 145 万户，而接驳费将从 16 年的 2
9、679 元/户下降至 18 年的 2547 元/户。 首次覆盖，给予减持评级。首次覆盖，给予减持评级。我们预计公司 16 年 EPS 为人民币 2.6 元（同比增长 38%），17 年 EPS 为人民币 2.7 元（同比增长 4%） ，18 年 EPS 为人民币 2.89 元（同比增长 7%）。我们运用 DCF 模型，给予目标价港币 32.84 元，相当于 16E 11 倍 PE，对应目前股价仍有12.8%的下降空间。我们首次覆盖新奥能源，给予减持评级。催化剂：催化剂：16 年 4 月及全年气量低于市场预期；居民气价格上调；售气毛利削减；风险：风险：气量需求恢复；油价大幅上涨； The com
10、pany does not hold any equities or derivatives of the listed company mentioned in this report (“target”), but then we shall provide financial advisory services subject to the relevant laws and regulations. Any affiliates of the company may hold equities of the target, which may exceed 1 percent of i
11、ssued shares subject to the relevant laws and regulations. The company may also provide investment banking services to the target. The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact for relevant disclosure materials or log into under disclosure column
12、 for further information. The clients shall have a comprehensive understanding of the disclosure and disclaimer upon the last page. -60%-40%-20%0%20%15-0515-0615-0715-0815-0915-1015-1115-1216-0116-0216-0316-0416-05ENN EnergyHSCEI本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司()
13、使用。2 2 Utilities | Company Research Bringing China to the World SWS Research Co. Ltd is a subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities. 99 East Nanjing Road, Shanghai | +86 21 2329 7818 Investment highlights: ENN Energy is one of the largest gas distributors in China, building and operating city gas pi
14、pelines, and selling natural gas to industrial and commercial as well as residential users. ENN generated 81% of its 15A revenue from sales of gas and a further 17% from charging gas connection fees, although the latter contributed 50% of the firms gross margin in the period. We see the company as o
15、vervalued given the combination of slowing demand, diminishing growth prospects for its high-margin connection fees income and see further margin pressure ahead as the government cuts prices. We initiate coverage with an Underperform rating. Slowing demand. Apparent gas consumption reached 193bnm3 i
16、n 15A (+5.7% YoY), after having grown at a five-year Cagr of 12%, as slower economic growth and weak price competiveness of natural gas compared with alternative energies such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and fuel oil undermined demand. Although the National Development and Reform Commission (ND
17、RC) guides five-year compound growth of 13% to 2020, we see a 9% Cagr to 301bnm3 as more achievable, based on our more cautious view on demand from vehicles and gas-fired power plants. With penetration among existing projects high and opportunities for new city-gas project acquisitions limited, we f
18、orecast three-year gas sales (excluding wholesale) Cagr of 9%. Potential gas margin squeeze. High entry barriers due to the 30-year exclusive concessions awarded and the introduction of a tiered residential pricing system provide a measure of stability for ENN gas sales gross margin for at least the
19、 next three years. However, with residential city-gate price hikes in 2016 likely and, downstream, the NDRCs pricing formula suggests an upcoming Rmb0.3-0.6/m3 cut in end-user price, we see potential for a dollar margin squeeze for gas utilities and a long-term reduction in profitability. Slowdown g
20、as connection numbers and fees. ENN connected 1.7m households in 15A (+29.1% YoY), as it ramped up connections of existing old buildings (accounting for 30% of 2015 connections). Its average connection fee fell 3.2% YoY to Rmb2,762 due to changes in its geographical mix, reducing gross margin 0.2ppt
21、s to 62.9% due to the higher cost of connecting existing buildings. Taking the SWS real estate teams forecast of protracted weakness in lower-tier city markets, as well as the companys strategy of focusing on connecting existing projects and old buildings in next few years, we forecast new connectio
22、ns declining from 1.55m in 16E to 1.45m in 18E and connection fees will fall from Rmb2,679 in 16E to Rmb2,547 in 18E. Initiate with an Underperform rating. We forecast EPS of Rmb2.60 in 16E (+38% YoY), Rmb2.70 in 17E (+4% YoY), and Rmb2.89 in 18E (+7% YoY). We use a discounted cash flow model to der
23、ive a target price of HK$32.84, representing 11x 16E PE. With 12.8% downside, we initiate coverage of ENN Energy with an Underperform recommendation. We see its valuation as likely to suffer if April gas deliveries data undershoots market expectations, as we believe is likely; likewise an announceme
24、nt of price adjustments that would squeeze the companys margin. We note, however, the potential for a rebound in valuation if oil prices rally significantly. 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。3 3October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research Please ref
25、er to the last page for important disclosures Page 1 January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research 17 May 2016 Gas Utilities | Company Research ENN Energy at a glance ENN Energy is one of the largest gas distributors in China with the countrys third-largest number of city gas pipeline
26、concessions but the largest network of natural gas vehicle refueling stations. The company buys at the city-gate level and distributes to both residential and commercial & industrial users. Fig 1: ENN Energy business model Source: Company data, SWS Research ENN generated 81% of its 15A revenue from
27、sales of gas and a further 17% from charging gas connection fees, although the latter contributed 50% of the firms gross margin in the period. ENNs 15A gas sales reached nearly 11.3bnm3 (+11% YoY, vs +25% in 14A). The slower pace of growth resulted from weak commercial and industrial demand for gas
28、as well as slowing demand from the transportation sector. Sales to commercial and industrial users accounted for 62% of total gas sales in 15A while sales for vehicle usage comprised 14% in 15A. Fig 2: ENN revenue breakdown, 2015 Fig 3: ENN gross profit breakdown, 2015 Source: Company data, SWS Rese
29、arch Source: Company data, SWS Research In 2013, ENN secured 17 new city piped gas projects, falling to eight in 2014 and 10 in 2015. As of end-2015, the company had secured a total of 152 piped gas projects with 30-year exclusive concession rights, compared with 273 for China Gas (384:HK) and 220 f
30、or China Resources Gas (1193:HK). Gas connection17%Sales of Piped gas58%Vehicle gas refueling stations12%Wholesale of gasOthers2%Gas connection50%Sales of Piped gas42%Vehicle gas refueling stations6%Wholesale of gasOthers2%本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。4 4
31、October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 2 January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research 17 May 2016 Gas Utilities | Company Research ENN operates a network of 306 compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle refueling
32、stations and 270 LNG stations as of end-2015. Over the course of the year, its vehicle gas sales increased 10% YoY, down from 21% YoY in 2014 and 27% YoY in 2013. Fig 4: City gas concessions vs peers, end-2015 Fig 5: City gas concessions acquired vs peers, 2013-2015 Source: China Gas, ENN Energy, CR
33、 Gas, Towngas China, SWS Research Source: China Gas, ENN Energy, CR Gas, Towngas China, SWS Research Fig 6: CNG/LNG stations vs peers, end-2015 Fig 7: Gas sales dollar margin vs peers, end-2014 Source: China Gas, ENN Energy, CR Gas, Towngas China, SWS Research Source: China Gas, ENN Energy, CR Gas,
34、SWS Research Fig 8: Natural gas sales by segment, end-2015 Source: China Gas, ENN Energy, CR Gas, Towngas, SWS Research Fig 9: Natural gas sales proportion by segment, end-2015 mm China Gas (FY15) China Resources Gas ENN Energy Towngas China Residential users 15% 26% 13% 27% Commercial & Industrial
35、users 72% 63% 62% 73% Vehicle natural gas users 12% 11% 14% 0% 273 220 152 104 050100150200250300China Gas (FY15)China Resource GasENN EnergyTowngas ChinaNumbers of license in 20150102030405060Towngas ChinaChina Gas (FY15)ENN EnergyChina Resources gas201320142015360 306 217 160 270 67 01002003004005
36、00600700China Gas (FY15)ENN EnergyChina Resource GasCNGLNG0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0ENNChina gasCR gas(Rmb/m3)本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。5 5October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research Please refer to the last page for important disclos
37、ures Page 3 January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research 17 May 2016 Gas Utilities | Company Research Other gas 2% 0% 11% 0% Total gas sales volume 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: China Gas, ENN Energy, CR Gas, Towngas, SWS Research ENN recorded a gross margin of 62.9% in its gas connecti
38、ons business in 15A, compared with a margin of 66.7% for China Gas and 58.9% for China Resources Gas. Over the course of the year, ENN connected 1.72m households (+29% YoY), beating its own guidance for the year after completing more connections in existing buildings than previously expected. As of
39、the end of the year, the companys household penetration rate was 51.7%, compared to 44.3% for China Gas and 44.4% for China Resources Gas. Fig 10: Gross profit margin on connection fees, vs peers Fig 11: Gas penetration vs peers, 2013-15 Source: Company data, SWS Research Source: Company data, SWS R
40、esearch Gas demand in China Natural gas apparent consumption in China reached 191bnm3 in 15A, up 5.7% YoY (14A: +5.6% YoY), according to data from the NDRC and China Customs. We believe ongoing weakness in demand for gas is due to the commoditys low price competitiveness in comparison with alternati
41、ve energy sources such as fuel oil or LPG, compounded by slowing economic growth. Although the market sees the November introduction of an Rmb0.7/m3 non-residential benchmark city-gate price cut as likely to stimulate demand, currently the price of imported fuel oil is still 41% cheaper than the nat
42、ional average city-gate price, according to China Customs. As a result, we expect a further cut in retail gas cost of Rmb0.3-0.6/m3 in 2016, in order to ease the financial burden on gas end-users, particularly industrial users and to stimulate demand for the cleaner-burning gas. Fig 12: China natura
43、l gas consumption vs GDP growth Source: NDRC, Bloomberg, SWS Research 54%56%58%60%62%64%66%68%70%China GasENN EnergyChina Resources Gas2013(FY13 for China Gas)2014 (FY14 for China Gas)2015 (FY15 for China Gas)35%37%39%41%43%45%47%49%51%53%55%201320142015ENNChina GasChina Resources gas本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴
44、业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 兴业全球 兴业全球基金管理有限公司() 使用。6 6October 12, 2010 Building Materials | Company Research Please refer to the last page for important disclosures Page 4 January 12,2015 Food, Beverage & Tobacco | Company Research 17 May 2016 Gas Utilities | Company Research Based on the ND
45、RCs natural gas pricing formula and according to our channel checks, we find an approximate market consensus that the NDRC will lower non-residential gas tariffs in 2016 by Rmb0.3-0.5/m3. While the market broadly expects upstream oil majors to bear the brunt of the cost reduction, we note the recent
46、 announcement by the Zhejiang government that it would also ensure some financial burden will fall on mid-stream pipeline operators and that downstream city-gas players may also need to contribute given their relatively high gas sales dollar margin (Rmb0.6-0.7/m3, see Figure 7), compared to oil majo
47、rs. As a result, we see potential for city-gas players dollar margin to fall significantly with an impact on long-term profitability. According to the NDRC, apparent consumption of natural gas in the first two months of 2016 reached 40.5bn m3 (+17.8% YoY), vs +5.7% YoY in 2015. By contrast, gas sale
48、s growth from major city-gas players in the period hit 12-15% YoY, surprising the market. The stronger-than-expected growth stemmed, in our view, from a combination of a colder-than-normal winter, the impact on demand of the November non-residential benchmark city-gate price cut and efforts to encou
49、rage industrial users, particularly in northern China to convert from coal to gas. The market expects gas sales growth to recover in 2016 based on strong winter sales. However, by adjusting for changes in geographical mix (to include more southern China users, who have been opting for gas-fired heating over electricity-based heating, as well as the distortion from the lunar Chinese New Year (7-13 February 2016), apparent gas consumption in March 2016 grew at just 8.7% YoY, below market expectation. As a result, we believe actual Chinas gas sales growth in April 2016 and for the full-year
