1、May-89 Jan-90 Sep-90 May-91 Jan-92 Sep-92 May-93 Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Actual Real GDP (92$) (left axis) MSDW Forecast GDP (left axis) Relative P/E Ratios Based On 12-Month Forward Ear
2、nings (right axis) Absolute P/E Chart: Railroads 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Jan-82 Sep-82 May-83 Jan-84 Sep-84 May-85 Jan-86 Sep-86 May-87 Jan-88 Sep-88 May-89 Jan-90 Sep-90 May-91 Jan-92 Sep-92 May-93 Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2
3、.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Actual Real GDP (92$) (left axis) MSDW Forecast GDP (left axis) Absolute P/E Ratios Based On 12- Month Forward Estimates (right) axis) All-time low P/E Ratio of 5.1 hit in June, 1982. All-time high P/E Ratio of 15.2 hit in May, 1999 New Economy Versus Old Eco
4、nomy New Economy versus Old Economy 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan-95 Apr-95 Jul-95 Oct-95 Jan-96 Apr-96 Jul-96 Oct-96 Jan-97 Apr-97 Jul-97 Oct-97 Jan-98 Apr-98 Jul-98 Oct-98 Jan-99 Apr-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Jan-00 Dow Jones IndustrialsS&P 500 Nasdaq CompositeDJ Transports Internet As Accelerator Growth
5、 QUALITY Still Matters Is the Internet changing freight patterns? Cutting costs with the Internet? Growing revenue with the Internet? Needs of the Customer Real-time Tracking and Tracing9.5* On-line Service Performance Reports 8.2 Electronic Bill Presentment and Payment8.2 Real-time Transit Time Cal
6、culator8.0 Electronic Loss & Damage Claim 8.0 Elec. retrieval of historical shipping documents7.9 Electronic Request for Pick-up 7.7 Electronic Bill of Lading/Air bill 7.4 In-transit Rerouting of Freight 7.2 On-line Rate Quotes7.1 On-line Instructions 7.1 Drop-Off/Pick-Up Locator7.0 In-transit Fax/P
7、age Update Alerts6.9 On-line Tariff Rules 6.5 * Scale from 1 to 10 1 = Irrelevant/Would Never Use, 10 = Critical Task/Feature THREAT? The Internet as a. THE QUESTIONTHE ANSWER How many years did it take for the internet to reach 50 million users? Four THE QUESTIONTHE ANSWER Who helped Dell implement
8、 internet technology that reduced shipment tracking inquiries by 40%? FedEx with FedEx Net THE QUESTIONTHE ANSWER What is the single largest commodity group moved by air? Machinery/Parts Rapid Prototype Evaluate and Refine Feedback Concept Executive Sponsorship Network Foundation 36 month initial de
9、ployment cycle Add functionality over timebuild on initial success ImplementationShort, “Bite-Sized” Projects Ensure Success Jim Leach Director- Logistics Services JCP Logistics, L.P. Shipper Partner Collaboration ”Today with all of the technology options available and with the pace of change, there
10、 is a tremendous amount of confusion concerning e-commerce as it relates to logistics. As the face of business changes there is a desperate need to fill the information gap between current transportation methods and e- commerce strategies and solutions. Today we must not only move product, but infor
11、mation as well. The ones that learn how to do this first, wins.” -Jim Leach Dr. Jun-Sheng Li President J.B. Hunt Logistics Shipper Partner Collaboration ”Without using internet technology, we would not be able to support J.C. Pennys transportation operations.” -Dr. Jun Li TBA TBA KPMG Closing Jim Va
12、lentine Managing Director, Equity Research Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. Analyst Expectations Either they get it or they dont. - Jim Valentine Jordan Sherman Vice President, Equity Research Morgan Stanley Dean Witter & Co. Analyst Expectations Freight transportation providers should be prime beneficiaries of e-commerce, because, at the
