1、支持。 随着自动驾驶在高精地图和仿真平台等优势平台成开放，可以帮助合作伙伴缩短开 发时间，降低研发测试成本。如图 7 所示，展示了腾讯智慧出行在网约车领域的解 决方案。 行业案例 2：腾讯的智慧出行解决方案 36 图 7 腾讯的智慧出行解决方案 37 在公共出行方面，让公共出行变得更加智慧，同样是腾讯智慧出 行的关键目标。腾讯乘车码依托腾讯在移动支付领域的优势，助 力公共出行体系智能化建设。目前，腾讯乘车码已陆续覆盖深 圳、上海、厦门、宁波、济南、大理等 100 多座城市，开通用户 5000 多万，支持 BRT、公交、地铁、索道、轮渡等公共交通移 动支付场景，致力于为用户提供公交场景的智能服务
2、。 38 39 40 4.1 坚定不移推进数字化转型 中国的汽车市场是目前全球增长最快的市场，即便最近一段时间汽车销售市 场增长速度受到了比较大的影响，但从长期发展的角度看，中国汽车市场具 有比较大的发展潜力，特别是电动汽车、车联网等面向未来的产品和应用， 在未来 5 年时间会成为主流。 不过，据汽车行业人士分析，中国汽车厂商还比较保守，还停留在过去几年 高速发展的惯性中，对于突然萎缩的市场需求还缺乏有效的应对方法，甚至 于一些汽车企业通过缩减正常的技术改造投资，来减少损失，这可能给汽车 企业带来丧失把握产业转型时期机遇的风险。 数字化转型是汽车企业短期内的工作目标， 它同时也是参与未来竞争的
3、基础， 汽车企业应该坚定不移地推进数字化转型。 对于汽车行业的企业，其主战场毫无疑问是车间和工厂，在推进自动化改造 的同时，应该把生产现场的数字化转型和改造作为重点，通过数字化工厂或 智能制造改造，加强生产现场的运行和管理能力，为企业的经营提供更大的 空间，更好满足消费者的个性化需求。 在具体落实生产现场的数字化改造过程中，首要任务应该是对装备系统进行 数字化改造，特别是应该建立一套集中化管理平台，通过集中化管理平台， 对所有相关 IT 系统进行标准化集成，任何企业只能有一套数据平台，这有利 于企业经营者掌握生产信息，做出更高质量的决策。 在满足统一数据平台的基础上，利用大数据、人工智能、数字
4、孪生体等先进 技术，把企业现有的数据利用起来，集中在提高生产效率、加强质量管控和 满足柔性生产等核心指标实现上。 41 4.2 通过上云上平台促进互联互通 对于汽车企业来讲，中期目标应该把促进产业链互联互通作为推进重点，这 包括了供应链的信息共享和销售渠道的信息透明等工作。这些工作可以通过 更便宜和更方便的云计算平台来实现。 由于制造企业拥有大量的内部数据，泄露后将对企业生产和经营带来较大的 损失，具有一定规模的企业应该建立私有云平台，通过自主可控的上云上平 台来实现管控。按照产业链主导型原则，汽车产业链上通常由具有品牌和控 制力的整车厂为核心，设定行业数据标准，要求供应链企业提供必要的数据，
5、 可以为产业链价值优化奠定基础。 在推进上云上平台的过程中，汽车企业应把标准制定、市场选择等列为首要 原则。类似苹果公司对供应链的信息化支持，苹果公司通过早期试点信息集 成供应商，确定后推荐给供应链上的其他企业，并通过补贴的方式引导供应 链企业使用。汽车整车厂也可以采用类似的方法，分阶段推进互联互通相关 工作。 42 4.3以创新商业模式 为长期战略 从长期的战略角度来看，汽车企业推进产业互联网目标 的时候，应该考虑产业的结构性调整，通过长期战略的 实施，推动商业模式的创新和改变，为企业自身发展建 设一个有利的产业环境。 生产车间和工厂的云战略，为企业更加快速响应市场需 求提供了基础；无人驾驶
6、和车联网等创新应用，本质上 改变了消费者对车的需求，具有实力的车企应该对此进 行深入研究，利用资本等手段，建立一个有利于自己的 行业格局，例如前面提及的软银和丰田利用 MONET 公 司，确定了日本汽车出行服务行业的格局。 随着大数据、人工智能、数字孪生体、产业互联网等技 术的深入应用，汽车行业还会有不少变化，在推进汽车 互联网的时候，应该与时共进，随时了解全球行业最新 进展，结合到企业实际情况和本地市场需求，及早进行 战略预判和部署，方可在第四次产业革命时期立于不败 之地。 43 汽车、工业互联网、医疗健康等重点领域发力。 力争成为国内集研究、咨询、招商、产业园运营、媒体会 展、评测检测、跨
7、界解决方案为一体的综合5G方案提供商。 未来布局 软科学研究。赛迪智库及赛迪顾问聚焦 5G产业和5G应用开展研究。 咨询业务。在研究基础上开展对地方政府 和企业在5G领域的咨询服务。 媒体宣传。赛迪旗下通信产业报中 国电子报等媒体长期跟踪5G的热点前 沿领域，在业界拥有较高的知名度。 会展。围绕5G举办国家级、省市级不同 级别的会议论坛。 已开展的工作 5G 核 心 产 品 赛迪灵犀智能制造服务云平台 重庆飞象工业互联网平台 工业APP云测试平台 赛迪时代行业级工业互联网平 台 工业互联网平台监测分析服务云平台 工业互联网平台运行监测 工业经济运行指数 数据 采集 IaaS PaaS SaaS
8、 数据采集系统 计算 网络 存储 数据建模系统 运行分析系统 全景展示系统 报告生成系统 DaaS 上云工业企业库 上云设备库 工业APP名录库 企业 行业 政府 跨平台数据开放、共享、交 易等增值服务 平台能力测评诊断 系统解决方案咨询 赛迪灵犀：打造覆盖全国主要制造业集 聚发展地区的、线上线下相结合的高质 量技术服务网络。 飞象：拥有2000+工业互联网应用解决 方案，让重如大象的工业企业重新起飞 。 100 余 家技术 合作伙 伴 400 余 位智能 制造行 业专家 服务制 造企业 超过 6000 家 成 果 工业APP云测试：开展工业APP功能完 整性、安全性、兼容性、可移植性及可 靠
9、性测试。 赛迪时代：聚焦能源、电子、冶金等行 业，联合地方政府及龙头企业，打造特 定区域的行业级平台。 一站 式服 务 跨行 业跨 领域 愿 景 研 制 内 容 开放 生态 安全 可控 行业 标准 开发与检测规范体系 在线开发云平台 在线验证测试云平台 监测与应用发布推广平台 推广与测评服务体系 工业互联网云平台 工业智能信息融合平台 智慧工厂制造物联网边缘平台 大数据治理产品 数字化设计仿真平台 工业大数据人工智能系统 工业互联网：打造五大产品线：监测、评估、测试、综合应用、行业解决方案 人工智能产 业创新联盟 机器人与人 工智能大会 全国青少年 机器人技术 等级考试 赛迪机器人 夏令营 人
10、工智能 大数据评测认证 数据管理能力成熟度评估 数据安全评测认证 基础研究 决策支撑 产业联盟 重大活动 应用平台 理论研究： 发布数字政府、数据质量等报告组织编 写数据治理、数字化转型、数字孪生城 市等书籍 决策支撑： 支撑工信部、发改委、中央网信办研究 制定公共数据资源开发利用试点方案、 工业数据分级分类指南、国家大数据中 心体系 参与雄安新区数据标准体系建设、贵州 大数据中心建设等工作 大数据评测认证： 建设大数据测试评估公共服务平台，开展 大数据基准测试服务 大数据产品与解决方案测评认证服务，定 期发布测试结果 数据治理评测谁： 数据管理能力成熟度评估服务 政务数据质量评估服务 数据安
11、全评测认证： 参与中央网信办网安局移动APP保护测评 等级保护、风险评估等安全测试 产业联盟： 大数据生态产业联盟理事长单位 数字经济产业联盟理事单位 重大活动： 积极承办数博会、数字中国建设峰会等重大 会议 组织数字中国创新大赛、数字中国城市行等 赛事活动 应用平台： 数智团，国内首家大数据&AI生态共享平台 智能产业知识大数据平台 咨询研究 评测认证 产业生态 数据中心 安 晖、吴志刚、姚 磊、彭 建、王宇霞、许亚倩、边大成、杨婉云、许 旭、王伟玲、 袁晓庆、蒲松涛、高婴劢、宋颖昌、郭丽君、王 闯、周润松、鲁金萍、王琼洁、刘丽超、 刘胜语、孙 悦、黄文鸿、钟新龙、王 婧、王 蕤、 叶乾霖、
12、黄向前、张 朝、徐 靖、 孙 刚、管 桐、王 越、秦亚星 、陈垭芃、曾悦萌、季郁芊、孙 婷 编写组成员 联系人：王宇霞 电话：13717712641 邮箱：wangyuxia Richard.Xu Joey.Xu Katherine.XH.Liu Lu.LuMorganS John.Cai In-Line MORGAN STANLEY ASIA LIMITED+ Richard Xu, CFA EQUITY ANALYST +852 2848-6729 Joey Xu RESEARCH ASSOCIATE +852 3963-0337 Katherine Liu RESEARCH ASSOCI
13、ATE +852 2239-1924 Lu Lu EQUITY ANALYST +852 2239-1568 John Cai EQUITY ANALYST +852 2239-1885 China Financials Asia Pacific IndustryView Chinas Financial Cleanup - Roadmap VIIChinas Financial Cleanup - Roadmap VII | | Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Managing city bank risks; a necessary step with manageab
14、le liquidity risks We believe dealing with city/rural bank risks is a necessary step in the financial cleanup process. We think regulators can strike a balance between driving rational asset growth at small banks and keeping high risk credit growth in check, while maintaining stable overall liquidit
15、y. We expect the takeover of Baoshang Bank to help set up a market-oriented risk assessment process in the interbank market. While accelerated risk digestion and deleveraging at some city/rural banks could follow, we see regulators as well prepared, with the creation of direct emergency credit lines
16、 to all banks, the deposit insurance program, a regional-based liquidity monitoring system and notably slower asset growth and less liquidity mismatching at many small banks. Around Rmb4.8tn of city and rural banks wholesale funding base could face a potential decline, which we see as quite manageab
17、le. As banks will likely be more selective in the interbank lending business, we see downside risks at the wholesale funding base for three types of rural/city banks: 1) those with assets in regions where the GDP growth slowdown has been notable, 2) banks with no financial reports in recent years an
18、d 3) banks downgraded by rating agencies in recent years. Our analysis shows that Rmb4.8tn of the wholesale funding base for small banks, which is 30% of their total wholesale funding base and supports 7% of their total assets, will face some downside pressures. In light of the manageable impact in
19、2016-18, we see some further moderation in city/rural bank asset growth as also manageable. We see limited downside risk to our forecast of 9.5% growth in total financial credits (TSF + government bonds + all shadow credits), implying 11.5% growth in reported TSF, as we had factored in a further slo
20、wdown in small bank asset growth given high NPL and capital constraints. We think the Baoshang Bank takeover will slow city/rural banks asset growth to 5% in 2019 from 10% now. We think the effective removal of the implicit guarantee for city/rural banks is a more permanent and market-oriented solut
21、ion to keep rapidly expanding banks and high risk credit growth in check than the various regulatory measures over the past few years have been. This will also reduce long-term systemic risks and sector NPL formation over time. From an earnings perspective, we think it will benefit NIM for state-own
22、ed and shareholding banks but not city banks under our coverage. We still like a few market oriented mid-sized banks such as China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank and Ping An Bank. We also like PSBC. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a
23、 result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important
24、disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registered with FINRA, may not be associated persons of the member and may not be subject to NASD/NYSE restrictions on communications with a subject company, public ap
25、pearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. 1 June 16, 2019 08:00 PM GMT Report in five charts Exhibit 1: Regulators have consistently taken various measures over the past few years, such as tightening regulations, establishing various processes, and managing expectations, t
26、hat have laid a solid foundation for the takeover of Baoshang Bank and the potential slowdown of asset growth at some banks 20142015201720182019 PBOC branches closely monitor local interbank liquidity and provide Standing Lending Facility (SLF) liquidity support. Deposit insurance scheme. Financial
27、Stability Committee set up to enhance regulatory coordination. Stricter bank shareholding entry and management. Expectation building: 1) Wang Zhaoxing on liquidity risk management for mid/ small banks; 2) Guo Shuqing on market-oriented exit mechanism for high risk financial institutions; 3) China Ba
28、nking and Insurance Regulatory Commission Party Committee on dealing with high risk mid/ small banks and insurance firms. Liquidity risk management rules announced. Thoughtful design of the takeover procedure, including prompt liquidity injection. Large amount risk exposure rules announced. Deposit
29、Insurance Fund Management Co., (DIFM) set up. Targeted Required Reserve Rate cut for mid/ small banks in Jun Source: PBOC, CBIRC, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 2: City and rural banks asset growth has significantly decelerated, from more than 25% in 2016 to 10% in 2018 Source: CEIC, Morgan Stanley
30、 Research Exhibit 3: Rmb4.8trn of wholesale funding, 1.8% of total assets of banking industry, at small banks in provinces with notably slowing economic growth could face downward pressure Source: CEIC, Wind, Morgan Stanley Research *Regional banks also includes banks such as those that have not mad
31、e regular disclosures and those that have been downgraded recently 2 Exhibit 4: We think potential slower asset growth at small banks will be offset by slightly higher asset growth at big/midsized banks, still resulting in around 9.5% total financial credit growth 0.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%9.4% 6.5%7.
32、4%8.6%8.8%9.1%9.3%9.6%9.7% 6.7%7.5%8.7%9.0%9.2%9.5%9.7%9.8% 7.0%7.7%9.0%9.2%9.5%9.7%10.0%10.1% 7.5%8.1%9.3%9.6%9.8%10.1%10.3%10.4% 8.0%8.5%9.7%10.0%10.2%10.5%10.7%10.8% 8.5%8.9%10.1%10.3%10.6%10.8%11.1%11.2% Big and midsized banks asset growth Small bank asset growthTotal financial credit yoy Source
33、: CEIC, Wind, Morgan Stanley Research Exhibit 5: The yield for AA corporate bonds, whose key investors are city and rural banks, remains largely stable 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 3Y AA corp bond yield5Y AA corp bond yield10Y AA corp bond yield % Source: Wind, Morgan Stanley Research 3 Investment summar
34、y While the market is concerned about the timing of the takeover of Baoshang Bank on May 24 (for more details, please refer to our report: China Financials: Baoshang Bank takeover a pilot case for containing risks at small banks (25 May 2019) , we believe it is a necessary and unavoidable step in th
35、e multiyear financial cleanup process. We believe this will further ensure more rational growth and encourage more prudent operations at smaller city and rural banks. We believe regulators are well prepared for this type of event and major liquidity and systemic risks are manageable. Risk at city an
36、d rural banks is one of the key reasons that we do not expect a credit impulse despite supportive measures from PBOC. We also do not see much downside risk to our 9.5% forecast for total financial credit growth (TSF + all shadow banking channels), which will be enough to meet most high-quality ratio
37、nal credit demand in China, in our view. However, this will lead to a continuation of the decline of interbank business at city and rural banks, particularly those highly levered city and rural banks, which will lead to a further slowdown in credit supply to capital market leverage, some nonbank fin
38、ancial firms, smaller property firms and LGFVs, which is also a continuation of the impact from financial cleanup efforts in recent years. A necessary and unavoidable step of the financial cleanup process, and regulators are well prepared for such events Regional banks such as city and rural commerc
39、ial banks have seen rapid NPL additions since 2018, as well as climbing NPL ratios, mostly caused by the economic growth slowdown and a tighter NPL recognition policy, leading to necessary measures as the financial cleanup process continues. Since 2016, regulators have been driving the financial cle
40、anup process step by step. As this process progresses, and in dealing with city/rural bank risks, regulators may have to take action to help establish a proper risk assessment process in the interbank market. We believe early action will help improve capital allocation over time and improve the stab
41、ility of the financial system. Exhibit 6: We have seen a faster increase in net NPL additions at city and rural banks since 2018. (100) (50) - 50 100 150 200 1Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q19 Big banksStockholding banksCity commercial banks Rural commercial banksForeign banks Quar
42、terlyNPL addition Source: PBOC, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research. Exhibit 7: .while city and rural bank NPL ratios also rose to 1.88% and 4.05%, respectively, in 1Q19 versus 1.52% and 3.16% in 2017 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Big banksJSBCity banksRural banksNPL ratio Source: PBOC
43、, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research. 4 We believe regulators had prepared for the takeover of Baoshang Bank and potential asset slowdown of some banks for a few years in the following ways: 1) They launched the deposit insurance program run by PBOC in 2015. 2) They designed a liquidity monitoring proces
44、s for all banks, with thousands of PBOC branches monitoring city and rural banks operating in each region. 3) They established an emergency credit line to all small banks on a local PBOC branch level in case of liquidity shocks. 4) They designed and issued a major risk digestion process and coordina
45、tion procedures between PBOC and CBRC. 5) There is still a 70%-80% guarantee for even large corporate and interbank deposits, showing a gradual process to remove the implicit guarantee expectation. 6) PBOC carried out more mature open market operations to ensure stable liquidity conditions in the br
46、oader interbank market. Analysis of size of city and rural bank assets at risk City and rural banks accounted for 25% of bank assets and provided around 20% of new total credits in 2018, down from 24% in 2015 based on our calculations. Asset growth at city and rural banks slowed from around 25% in 2016 to around 10% in 2018. In light of the manageable impact between 2016 and 2018, we believe some further moderation in city and rural bank asset growth should also be manageable.
