1、85; 3 Yb 1g 5 V 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 mC %i O g “ g Bg Z uS Mkv KIu1M 6svM1 bT 6 ?rSE ?ZSEYVrF |Kv lmbS (i 1 nV 1) g?r C“4g byN q/“ g g5O g?r f /g1 4b 2Z5 Z d1 b$ N 66ov pVV Z0bZ 9“g Z I8 b -8as1V f /Z VE 1 pKvaV79 Kv#gKv F Z I9GDPa#9S (C5F s GDPS i T 4 )PZ9 g b1 gg 4 L r l Zo=p b
2、Z 5 Z9a9T fb 8CZ B ?1 6 L8; V/BO3 9 V/B l 3 bZ %V/Ba/B m B8CZ T C %V/B mt m $ , -6 % m (1“by NC1 20 Mr a 20 My!“C 5 MCb I Zop “ bNaN X Z7/a9F l 7?Z ?Z6 GDPa# 9b tZ?Z64 BtZ0/YV % v pb 8 z 9 a 4 vy ?C B9 y ?Z “ %Tb BHWS| B y9yN9 y / gT l 4# p 69 VE t b = y “ gw?Z z h bBZ g z V4| K +Y -“ gC4 g NO g?Z#
3、qM gg 9v PgFCN -oBHp g f b 6BZ Z9?S#8B ZVg b y tM9 Pg pB b 4 y “ -X? 3 M1 5 fX_ 7 “ ; qw ; qC_oB 9B Tb 987 z y 9 y BH ?T y 274 y Xbk9 y | ?Z %TV ?Z N9 H = )B t 6 b a9 s P zy s M1 9 sb y 9 Z 4 ?ZS Nagr gTyM dM 5 9 y ( g a GDP ( V l )a4 y ( qa a 7? ) y (; y aZ e wy )b 1a YVa CEICaS # d9 Mk V 1992 M 11
4、 2004 M 41 HW (nV 2)bsZL Bt S ) g_housinvest g_sales 119 qh“1y realrate qh CPIb 25 gw PBhna 7? #Z t?SV7 p_ B ( e ) g1 LCB1b 7V f M S M M cl g_housinvest 7?g119 q I(1) g_sales g r 119 q I(1) housloan - I(2) devploan 7? - I(2) longloan I(2)totaloan - (1)totalratio + 7? / - I(1) realrate L= q I(1)reer
5、L=r q (1)shstock 8 I(1) * O V U VOQsr bI n 1994 M 1 1 SiE BdvM 46 ( 9 ) 3 vYbyN F B EM Dummy | 1994 M 1 1 1 HW 0b Lm d S Na g a GDP9qa ( V l # Z e wS ( 1 HWbB K v “ m b 2a9 T6cl M _ (TnV 2)b|V 2 M s M PcGets q9 s V ? M bYVQ k?C 7?gyM 1d9 (t DW R2 )1 7 i7 O6cld b9 TnV 3b 8V1D(FUT9 sTyM lg9 q g_housin
6、vest) L=g9 q g_housinvest-cpi) Constant - -0.09674 (-4.279) reer -0.01295 (-1.717) -0.02284 (-3.026) reer_2 -0.02694 (-3.502) -0.02927 (-3.810) realrate_1 0.03437 (3.401) 0.04581 (4.539) totalratio 0.06976 (2.063) 0.14236 (3.607) totalratio_1 - 0.07020 (1.784) dummy -0.51780 (-4.101) -0.62347 (-4.877) R20.52301 0.68163 R20.48153 0.63822 DW 1.98 2.11 “ 1992 Q2 - 2004 Q4 1992 Q2 - 2004 Q4 | =Ud9 bV 3 yM sY lg9 q# L=g9 q9 Tb ?CyM d 1 -yM d 4 16 s R2 48%4 64%byN &#
