1、Unit23Content of project risk managementTextAccording to US Project management Association to the risk of definition,the risk is refers to the project advantageous or the disadvantageous element of certainty.The project is for completes the disposable endeavor which some unique product or the servic
2、e station do,the project the distinctive quality had decided the project not impossible was by with the before identical way,simultaneously,the project which completed by and the before identical person must create the product or the service,as well as the project possibly involved the scope,the tim
3、e and the cost all not impossible started when the project completely to determine,therefore,carried on in the process in the project also corresponding to be able to appear the massive uncertainty,namely project risk.Below this article mentioned the risk is refers to the project disadvantageously t
4、he element of certainty.Exists to the project disadvantageous risk in any project,often and can give the project the advancement and the project success brings the negative influence.Once the risk occurs,its influence is various,like causes the project product/service the function to be unable to sa
5、tisfy the customer the need,the project expense surpasses the budget,the project plan dragging or is compelled to cancel and so on,it finally manifests for customer degree of satisfaction depression.Therefore,the recognition risk,the appraisal risk and take the measure to be supposed to be the risk
6、management have the extremely vital significance to the risk to the project management.Text Risk management concrete content The project risk management mainly divides into following several steps:The risk recognition,the qualitative/quota risk analysis,the risk should to plan the establishment and
7、the risk monitoring.1.risk recognitionsThe risk recognition,is refers distinguishes and records possibly has the adverse effect to the project the factor.Because the project is in develops in unceasingly the change process,therefore the risk recognition also passes through in the entire project impl
8、ementation entire process,but is not merely the project initial stage1.The risk recognition is not the disposable work,but need more systems,crosswise thought.Possesses nearly about the project plan and the information all possibly takes the risk recognition the basis,like project progress and cost
9、plan,work decomposition structure,project organizational structure,project scope,similar project historical information and so on2.Needs to pay attention,all risks all may carry on the management by no means through the risk recognition.The risk recognition only can discover the known risk(for examp
10、le:In the known project organization some member ability cannot satisfy the request completely)or the known unknown risk(known-unknown,namely event name known,like customer side personnel participates in dynamics being insufficient);Before but certain risks,as a result of the project distinctive qua
11、lity,not impossible to occur in it know in advance(unknown-unknown,namely unknown-unknown risk).Text2.qualitative/quota risk analysisThe latent risk quantity distinguishes which through the risk recognition process are very many,but these latent risks to the project the influence are various.The ris
12、k analysis namely through the analysis,the comparison,the appraisal and so on each way,to determined various risks the importance,sorts to the risk and appraises it to the project possible consequence,thus causes the project to implement the personnel to be possible to concentrate the main energy in
13、 the few in number main risk,thus enable the project the overall risk to be under the effective control.The risk analysis mainly may use the method includes:Risk probability/influence appraisal matrix,sensitive analysis,simulation and so on.When carries on the above analysis,mainly pays attention to
14、 following several risk factor:Risk probability:Namely the risk event occurs possible percentage expression.This numeral is,like the expert who obtains through the subjective judgment appraises,the interview or the basis before similar project historical information.Risk influence:Namely the risk ha
15、s possibly the influence size which creates to the project.This kind of influence is possibly in the time,possibly is in the cost,also is possibly other various aspects.Risk value(required value EMV):The risk value=risk probability*risk influence,is to the risk the influence most direct appraisal wh
16、ich creates to the project,its overall evaluation probability with has affected two aspects the factors.Text3.risks should plan the establishment The risk should lie in to the plan goal through the formulation corresponding measure,comes to be supposed to the risk the threat which possibly creates t
17、o the project3.Most often uses should to threat several measures are:The circumvention,reduces,the shift,accepts.The circumvention,namely eliminates this risk through the elimination risk origin.Reduces,namely through takes the measure to reduce the risk probability or the risk influence,thus achiev
18、ed reduces the risk value the result4;The shift,soon the risk shifts to another side,like purchase insurance,sub package and so on;Accepts,namely does not take the measure to this risk,and accepts result which it creates,or occurs after this risk uses the contingency plan to carry on processing agai
19、n.Selects what method to come specifically to be supposed to some risk,is decided in this risk value(EMV),plans to adopt should to the measure possible cost,the project management personnel treat the risk the manner(utility function)the type and so on various aspects,cannot be generally spoken.The r
20、isk should be aims at the risk to the plan which distinguishes to carry on;Regarding the unknown risk,not impossible to choose in advance the formulation corresponding to be supposed to plan or the contingency plan,therefore,may stockpile using the management should be right.Text4.risk monitoring Th
21、e risk monitoring mainly includes following several aspects the duty:1)Carrying on in the process in the project to track has distinguished the risk,the monitoring remaining risk and distinguishes the new risk:Along with the project implementation as well as the risk should to the measure execution,
22、each kind the influence factor be in the process to the project which changes unceasingly,therefore,needs in the entire project process,the time surveillance risk development and the change situation,determined follows the new risk which certain risks vanishing comes and formulates the corresponding
23、 processing measure5.2)Guaranteed the risk should to the plan execution and appraised the risk should to plan carry out the effect.The appraisal method may be the project cycle(stage)the natural review,the achievements appraisal and so on.3)Accepts to the sharp-edged risk the risk takes the suitable
24、 flexible measure.Through the risk monitoring process,the project personnel renews the project risk tabulation continually,and through the repetition above various steps guaranteed the project risk is at the controlled condition throughout.endeavorvt.&vi.尝试，试图；尽力，竭力；n.努力，尽力simultaneouslyadv.同时地；齐；一齐
25、manifestvt.显示，证明；使显现；adj.明白的，明显的；n.货单，旅客名单recognition risk识别风险appraisal risk评估风险crosswiseadj.&adv.交叉的（地）latent risk潜在的风险appraisal matrix评价矩阵eliminationn.排除；除去；根除；淘汰circumventionn.规避，逃避(规则或限制)contingencyn.意外事故，偶发事件；可能性，偶然性stockpilen.（原料等的）储备，准备急用的备用原料或物资，贮存；资源，富源，矿藏量；surveillancen.盯梢，监督；法管制，监视New Wor
26、ds and PhrasesNotes（1）Because the project is in develops in unceasingly the change process,therefore the risk recognition also passes through in the entire project implementation entire process,but is not merely the project initial stage.由于项目处于不断发展变化的过程中，因此风险识别也贯穿于整个项目实施的全过程,而不仅仅是项目的开始阶段。（2）Possesse
27、s nearly about the project plan and the information all possibly takes the risk recognition the basis,like project progress and cost plan,work decomposition structure,project organizational structure,project scope,similar project historical information and so on.几乎所有关于项目的计划与信息都可能作为风险识别的依据，如项目进度及成本计划
28、、工作分解结构、项目组织结构、项目范围、类似项目的历史信息等。（3）The risk should lie in to the plan goal through the formulation corresponding measure,comes to be supposed to the risk the threat which possibly creates to the project.风险应对计划的目的在于通过制定相应的措施，来应对风险对项目可能造成的威胁。Notes（4）Reduces,namely through takes the measure to reduce th
29、e risk probability or the risk influence,thus achieved reduces the risk value the result.减轻，即通过采取措施降低“风险概率”或“风险影响”,从而达到降低风险值的结果。（5）Carrying on in the process in the project to track has distinguished the risk,the monitoring remaining risk and distinguishes the new risk:Along with the project impleme
30、ntation as well as the risk should to the measure execution,each kind the influence factor be in the process to the project which changes unceasingly,therefore,needs in the entire project process,the time surveillance risk development and the change situation,determined follows the new risk which ce
31、rtain risks vanishing comes and formulates the corresponding processing measure.在项目进行过程中跟踪已识别风险、监控残余风险并识别新风险：随着项目的实施以及风险应对措施的执行，各种对项目的影响因素处于不断变化的过程中，因此，需要在整个项目过程中，时刻监督风险的发展与变化情况，确定伴随某些风险的消失而来的新的风险并制定相应的处理措施。1.风险管理部门是属服务部门，因此该部门对企业利润之回馈应以其执行能力之高低为认定之基础。2.较少预算限制的经济个体只要对所有的风险管理方案采取预期收益现值大于预期成本现值的方案即可获益。3.当为了有限的预算或实际的理由时，经济个体在选取互相冲突的风险管理方案时，经济个体应选择预期收益现值与预期成本现值差额最大的风险管理方案4.多国籍企业应设立全球性风险和保险管理规划方案，不可完全仰赖条款差异保险。5.在执行全球性风险管理方案时，尤需保持警觉，并且不能低估国家主义所致的严重问题Exercises（Translate the following Chinese into English,or English into Chinese）
