1、The China US Trade War and South Asian EconomiesThe USA and China, the worlds largest economic powers, have been engaged in trade war since January 2018. The impact of this trade war is felt not only by the USA and China but also by other economies which are linked with them. This book provides insi
2、ghts into damage caused by this trade war. It also explores some opportunities arising for a few economies from this trade war.The first section of the book looks at the impact of the trade war on the global economy. It goes deeper to examine the trade war impact on the South Asian region. It is wel
3、l- known that any imposition of new tariffs or an increase in ex-isting tariffs would make imports more costly and render the exported goods less competitive. Yet, the book posits that the trade war has provided a window of opportunity to other countries not caught in it. Countries like Bangladesh,
4、India, and Sri Lanka have actually reaped benefits from the widening trade dis-pute between the worlds two biggest economies.This book will be a useful reference to help policymakers to undertake in-formed decisions and initiate programmes to minimise the trade war impact.Rahul Nath Choudhury is a t
5、rade economist currently based in New Delhi. Earlier he was associated with the National University of Singapore, as a Visiting Research Fellow. His primary research interests include foreign direct invest-ments, international trade, e- commerce, digital trade, and technology policy. Rahul has been
6、a freelance consultant for organisations like ADB, IFC, AEPC, CII, and a few MNCs as well. Rahul has diverse experience of working in both the public and the private sector in academia and the industry. He has contributed to numerous book chapters and academic journals and commentaries. Routledge Fr
7、ontiers ofPolitical EconomyPower and Influence of EconomistsContributions to the Social Studies of EconomicsEdited by Jens Maesse, Stephan Phringer, Thierry Rossier and Pierre BenzRent- Seeking and Human CapitalHow the Hunt for Rents is Changing Our Economic and Political LandscapeKurt von Seekamm J
8、r.The Political Economy of State InterventionConserving Capital over the Wests Long DepressionGavin PoynterIntangible Flow Theory in EconomicsHuman Participation in Economic and Societal ProductionTiago Cardao- PitoFoundations of Post- Schumpeterian EconomicsInnovation, Institutions and FinanceBenia
9、mino CallegariDistributive Justice and TaxationJrgen PedersenThe China US Trade War and South Asian EconomiesEdited by Rahul Nath ChoudhuryPolitics and the Theory of Spontaneous OrderPiotr SzafrugaFor more information about this series, please visit: books/ series/ SE0345 The ChinaUS Trade War and S
10、outh Asian EconomiesEdited byRahul Nath Choudhury First published 2021by Routledge2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RNand by Routledge52 Vanderbilt Avenue, NewYork, NY 10017Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business 2021 selection and editorial matter,
11、Rahul Nath Choudhury; individual chapters, the contributorsThe right of Rahul Nath Choudhury to be identified as the author of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1
12、988.All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writi
13、ng from the publishers.Trademark notice:Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe.British Library Cataloguing- in- Publication DataA catalogue record for this book is available from the Briti
14、sh LibraryLibrary of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication DataA catalog record has been requested for this bookISBN:978- 0- 367- 51381- 8 (hbk)ISBN:978- 1- 003- 05361- 3 (ebk)Typeset in Galliardby Newgen Publishing UK ContentsList of figures viiList of tables xList of contributors xiiForeword xviiAc
15、knowledgements xixList of abbreviations xxiIntroduction 1RAHUL NATH CHOUDHURYPART IUS China trade war:assessing the global economic implications 9 1 Global economic impact of US China trade tensions 11BADRI NARAYANANGOPALAKRISHNAN AND LEKSHMI NAIR 2 US China trade war:a new order or a secular declin
16、e of economic outlook? 19SAURABH BANDYOPADHYAY 3 US China trade war:an analysis of trade relations 32SUNANDAN GHOSH 4 Impact of US China trade war on the global economy, free trade, and WTO 68PRAVIN JADHAV AND RAHUL NATH CHOUDHURY vi ContentsPART IIWhat is there for the regional economy? 79 5 US Chi
17、na trade war:an opportunity for India 81DINKAR NAYAK AND AKASH KUMRA 6 Implications of US China trade war for India 97SAON RAY AND SMITA MIGLANI 7 US China trade war:the potential impact on Bangladesh 124ANU ANWAR 8 US China trade war:trade and investment implications for Sri Lanka 137JANAKA WIJAYAS
18、IRI AND ANUSHKA WIJESINHAPART IIIDecoding the benefit of preferential trading partners 173 9 US China trade war and the RCEP negotiations:an analysis 175SANCHITA CHATTERJEE 10 US China trade war:impact on potential trade of their FTA partners 201SWATI SINGH AND SACHIN SISODIYAPART IVIs it for the es
19、tablishment of technological supremacy? 215 11 The US China technology conflict:the causes 217DANIEL GROS 12 Technology rents and the new Great Game 229DAN CIURIAK AND MARIA PTASHKINAConclusion 249RAHUL NATH CHOUDHURYIndex 253 Figures 1.1 Changes to GDP if threatened tariffs are implemented 16 1.2a,
20、 b Sectors most affected by implemented and threatened tariffs 17 2.1 US China trade:a precipitous declining trend 21 2.2 Quarterly growth (%)of the US manufacturing employment (Q4:2018 19 to Q4:2019 20) 21 2.3 Quarterly export share of India with the US and China: 2016 17 to 2019 20 23 2.4 Quarterl
21、y import share of India with the US and China: 2016 17 to 2019 20 23 2.5 Quarterly export share of Rest of Asia (net of China) and the Rest of World (minus US China and the Rest of Asia) with India:2016 17 to 2019 20 24 3.1 US trade balances with China, South and South- East Asia (1993 2018) 35 3.2
22、Chinas trade balances with USA, South and South- East Asia (1993 2018) 36 3.3 US imports from China and South and South- East Asian countries (1993 2018) 37 3.4 Countrys share in South Asian exports to the US 37 3.5 US imports from India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam (1993 2018) 38 3.6 USAs impor
23、ts from China CUSUM and CUSUM of squares 39 3.7 USAs imports from South Asia and India 40 3.8 USAs imports from select South- East Asian countries CUSUM tests 42 3.9 US exports to China, Thailand, South Asia, and South- East Asia 1993 2018 44 3.10 Share of South Asias import from the US (1993 2018)
24、45 3.11 US exports to Hong Kong and select South and South- East Asian countries 45 3.12 USAs exports to China CUSUM and CUSUM of squares 46 3.13 USAs exports to South Asia CUSUM and CUSUM of squares 47 viii List of figures 3.14 USAs exports to South- East Asia CUSUM and CUSUM of squares 48 3.15 USA
25、s exports to Hong Kong and select South and South- East Asian countries 49 3.16 Chinese imports from USA, South and South- East Asian countries (1993 2018) 51 3.17 Countrys share in South Asian exports to China 52 3.18 Major South- East Asian exporters to China (1993 2018) 53 3.19 Chinas imports fro
26、m USA and South- East Asia CUSUM tests 54 3.20 Chinas imports from select South East Asian countries CUSUM tests 55 3.21 Chinas exports to USA, Hong Kong, South and South- East Asia (1993 2018) 57 3.22 Chinas exports to South Asia (1993 2018) 58 3.23 Chinas exports to major South and South- East Asi
27、an countries (1993 2018) 59 3.24 Chinas exports to USA CUSUM and CUSUM of squares 60 3.25 Chinas imports from India and South Asia CUSUM 61 3.26 Chinas imports from SE Asia CUSUM and CUSUM of squares 62 3.27 Chinas exports to Hong Kong and major South- East Asian countries CUSUM tests 65 5.1 Indias
28、exports to USA and China (%share, 2009 2019) 87 5.2 Indias imports from USA and China (%share, 2009 2019) 88 6.1 Share of classes of goods in total Indian exports (2008 2017) (%) 104 6.2 Share of classes of goods in total Indian imports (2008 2017) (%) 104 6.3 Indias imports and exports of intermedi
29、ate goods 105 6.4 Indias imports and exports of final goods 107 6.5 Indias imports and exports of capital goods 109 6.A1 Gross exports of India, sectors, 2007 (goods) 114 6.A2 Gross exports of India, 2017 (goods) 115 6.A3 Gross imports of India, 2007 (goods) 115 6.A4 Gross imports of India, 2017 (go
30、ods) 115 6.A5 Gross exports of India, countries, 2007 116 6.A6 Gross exports of India, countries, 2017 117 6.A7 Gross imports of India, countries, 2007 118 6.A8 Gross imports of India, countries, 2017 119 8.A1 Direction of trade Sri Lanka, 2017 163 8.A2 Product composition of trade Sri Lanka, 2017 1
31、64 8.A3 Composition of Sri Lankas exports to the US, 2017 164 8.A4 Composition of Chinese exports to the US, 2017 165 8.A5 Changes in Sri Lankas exports to the US of tariff- affected products on List 1 (One year) 165 List of figures ix 8.A6 Changes in Chinas exports to the US after tariff imposition
32、 List 1 166 8.A7 Changes in Sri Lankas exports to the US of tariff- affected products on List 2 (One year) 166 8.A8 Changes in export from China to US of tariff- affected products under List 2 (one year) 167 8.A9 Changes in Sri Lankas exports to the US of tariff- affected products on List 3 167 8.A1
33、0 Changes in export from China to the US of the tariff-affected products under List 3 168 8.A11 Changes in Sri Lankas exports to the US of tariff- affected products on List 4a (List 4a:Oct. Dec. 2019 vs Oct. Dec. 2018) 168 8.A12 Changes in export from China to the US of tariff- affected products in
34、List 4a 169 9.1 FTA status by country/ economy, 2017 180 9.2 Growth in import from and export to China of the other RCEP countries 187 9.3 Growth in import from and export to USA of RCEP countries 187 9.4 Outward FDI stock and flows as % of world stocks and flows from the US and China to RCEP Countr
35、ies in 2012 188 9.5 Shares of inward and outward FDI flows and stocks of US and China in total FDI values 189 9.6 Total patent applications (direct and PCT national phase entries) in 1980 2018 (10,000s) 192 11.1 Profit rates in China (%) 224 11.2 Average rate of return on FDI (2014 2017) (%) 225 12.
36、1 Medium and high- tech exports (%manufactured exports), 1990 2017 234 12.2 Research and development expenditure (%of GDP), 1996 2017 234 12.3 Total patent applications of the top- five offices, 1980 2016 235 12.4 E- commerce revenues as share of total retail sales, 2007 2016 236 12.5 Number of CFIU
37、S investigations, 1988 2016 237 Tables 3.1 Chow Forecast Test break dates for USAs imports (1993 2018) 43 3.2 Chow Forecast Test break dates for USAs exports (1993 2018) 50 3.3 Chow Forecast Test break dates for Chinas imports (1993 2018) 56 3.4 Chow Forecast Test break dates for Chinas exports (199
38、3 2018) 63 4.1 The bilateral trade relationship between US and China from 2010 to 2019 71 4.2 Top ten sources of US imports (US$ billion) 72 4.3 The US merchandise trade deficit with China 73 4.4 Major US merchandise imports from China in 2010 2019: HS two digit level 74 4.5 Export from the US to Ch
39、ina from 2010 to 2019 (US$ billion) 74 4.6 Summary of effects of trade war on international trade between US and China (%change 2018 19) 74 5.1 Growth of Indias exports to the USA and China (2009 10 to 2018 19) 87 5.2 Growth of Indias imports from USA and China (2009 10 to 2018 19) 89 5.3 Indias Rev
40、ealed Comparative Advantage in top ten products (2016 and 2018) 90 5.4 Indias Revealed Comparative Advantage in top 20 products (2018) 91 5.5 Chinas Revealed Comparative Advantage in top 20 products (2018) 92 5.6 USAs Revealed Comparative Advantage in top 20 products (2018) 93 6.1 Categories of BEC
41、classification 103 6.2 Indias top ten exporting partners of intermediate goods 106 6.3 Indias top ten importing partners of intermediate goods 106 6.4 Indias top ten exporting partners of final goods 108 6.5 Indias top ten importing partners of final goods 108 6.6 Indias top ten exporting partners o
42、f capital goods 110 6.7 Indias top ten importing partners of capital goods 110 6.A1 Correspondence between SNA Classes of goods and BEC classification 120 List of tables xi 8.A1 US tariffs imposed on China 151 8.A2 Foreign direct investments (FDI) in Sri Lanka, top ten country wise breakdown, US$ mn
43、 152 8.A3 Foreign direct investment of BOI enterprises by sector, US$ mn 153 8.A4 Products in which Sri Lanka has a comparative advantage over China in US (HS6 level) 154 8.A5 Trade diversion to Sri Lanka due to US imposing additional tariffs on China (US$1000) 161 8.A6 Tariff lists under Section 30
44、1 and relevance to Sri Lankas exports, 2019 162 8.A7 Where might production capacity in China move to? 163 9.1 Summary of substantive provisions of the US China Agreement 177 9.2 Timeline and summary of provisions of the RCEP 179 9.3 Engagement of RCEP- I and the US with each other through FTAs 182
45、9.4 Comparing RCEP provisions with ASEAN+1 FTAs 183 9.5 Comparing RCEP provisions with non- ASEAN RCEP- I FTAs 185 9.6 Origin country of value- added as % of gross exports to the country in 2015 190 9.7 Origin of value- added from a country as % of gross imports from the country in 2015 191 9.8 Data
46、 on the top five patent offices 192 9.9 Global Innovation Index 2019 rankings 193 9.10 IPR provisions in different FTAs of RCEP- I and US China Agreement 194 10.1 USAs and Chinas trade with the world (2013 18) in US$ billion 203 10.2 USA imports from China in three selected sectors (2013 18) in US$
47、billion 204 10.3 China imports from USA in three selected sectors (2013 18) in US$ billion 205 10.4 United States exports, imports, and trade balance of automobile sector to FTA partners (2013 18) in US$ billion 207 10.5 United States exports, imports and trade balance of electrical machinery sector
48、 to FTA partners (2013 18) in US$ billion 208 10.6 United States exports, imports, and trade balance of iron and steel sector to FTA partners (2013 18) in US$ billion 209 10.7 Chinas exports, imports, and trade balance of automobile sector to FTA partners (2013 18) in US$ billion 211 10.8 Chinas exp
49、orts, imports, and trade balance of electrical machinery sector to FTA partners (2013 18) in US$ billion 212 10.9 Chinas exports, imports, and trade balance of iron and steel sector to FTA partners (2013 18) in US$ billion 213 11.1 Trade and current account imbalances 219 ContributorsAnu AnwarAnu An
50、war is a Fellow at the Asia Center, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Harvard University. He is also an Associate in Research at Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, and a Visiting Fellow at the University of Tokyos Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia. Before joining Harvard, Mr. Anwar worked as a Re
