1、g Club, for example, P2P borrowers are categorized by grades A to D, refl ecting the probability of default. On average, around 40 percent of loans are awarded a grade of A or B. These higher-rated borrowers are con-sidered the least risky and are charged 812 percent interest rates. Borrowers with g
2、rades C or D tend to be riskier, and their annual interest rate can go as high as 30 percent. These interest rates do not compare favorably with credit card interest rates (fi gure 3).To verify whether borrowers actually use the proceeds of their P2P loans to repay pre-existing debt, we need our mat
3、ched data sample. All borrowers pay off their loans either fully or partially sometime after they borrow, but equipped with matched data, we can statistically evaluate whether borrowers use P2P loans to refi nance their existing debt accounts, i.e., pay off (higher-interest rate) credit cards and/or
4、 consolidate other loans, to a greater degree than people who did not take P2P loans. If P2P loans are used for refi nancing and loan consolidation, we should not see differences in total debt balances between P2P and matched non-P2P borrowers during and after the P2P origination year. If anything,
5、total debt balances of P2P borrowers could decline after P2P origination if (cheaper) P2P term-loans are used to refi nance (more expensive) re-volving credit card debt. However, instead of this pattern, we observe total debt increasing after the P2P loan origination year (fi gure 4). Using a statis
6、tical technique that allows us to account for other potential differences between P2P and non-P2P borrowers fi nancial, economic, and demographic characteristics, we estimate that, on average, the non-P2P debt balances of P2P borrowers grow about 35 percent more than those of non-P2P borrowers withi
7、n two years of the P2P origination year.One can argue that P2P credit might be used to refi nance the most expensive consumer debtcredit card accounts. Because credit card debt, on average, constitutes only about 6 percent of total consumer indebtedness, it might be dif-fi cult to capture the effect
8、s of refi nancing by evaluating the dynamics of total debt or even total non-P2P debt. To this end, we isolate credit card accounts. Once again, however, the results show that credit card debt increases for P2P bor-rowers. P2P borrowers exhibit a 47 percent increaserather than a decreasein their cre
9、dit card balances after obtaining P2P credit as compared to matched non-P2P borrowers. Figure 4. Total Debt Outstanding, Credit Scores, and Delinquency before and after P2P Loan OriginationPanel B: Credit ScorePanel C: 90 Days Past-Due DelinquencyNote: Year 0 is the year of origination. Source: Auth
10、ors calculations based on data from TransUnion.Panel A: Total Debt Outstanding1.21.41.61.82.02 1 0 1 2Ratio of debt to incomeNumber of years since peer-to-peer loan originationPeer-to-peerNon-peer-to-peer95% confidence interval6756806856906952 1 0 1 2Peer-to-peerNon-peer-to-peerNumber of years since
11、 peer-to-peer loan originationVantage score 95% confidence interval0.81.01.21.41.6Number of delinquent accounts2 1 0 1 2Peer-to-peerNon-peer-to-peerNumber of years since peer-to-peer loan origination95% confidence intervalec 201718.indd 5 11/6/2017 1:33:09 PMDo P2P loans help in building a better cr
12、edit history?P2P lenders suggest that P2P loans help borrowers improve their credit histories and credit scores. Specifi cally, P2P proponents cite three ways in which P2P borrowing contrib-utes to consumer credit score enhancement. First, applying for a P2P loan leads only to a “soft” credit score
13、inquiry that does not affect ones credit score as opposed to a “hard” credit card or bank loan inquiry that, by defi nition, does affect credit scores. Second, P2P loans are reported to credit bureaus as installment debt rather than revolving debt (such as credit cards); this by itself could improve
14、 ones credit score because, in a typical credit bureau model, installment loans are considered less risky than revolving loans due to the smaller uncertainty associated with the expected stream of payments for installment loans. Finally, because P2P loans are allegedly issued to refi nance existing
15、high-cost credit card debt, they have the capacity to free up cash fl ow and thus lead to a reduction in total outstanding balances, resulting in improved fi nancial health for consumers and subsequent credit score improvements.To evaluate if P2P loans indeed enhance borrowers credit histories, we c
16、ompare the credit scores and delinquency rates of P2P and non-P2P borrowers after P2P loan origi-nation. If P2P borrowing helps improve borrowers credit history, we should observe P2P borrowers exhibiting lower delinquency rates and higher credit scores after P2P loan origination as compared to non-
17、P2P borrowers.Our results suggest that the credit scores of P2P borrow-ers fall substantially and delinquency rates rise after taking on a P2P loan (fi gure 4) compared to non-P2P borrowers. We also discovered that numerous measures of deroga-tory events (number of past due accountsboth revolving an
18、d installmentand number of bankruptcies) signifi cantly increased for borrowers who took out P2P loans. These results indicate that P2P loans have the capacity to worsen borrowers prospects for future access to fi nancing. Do P2P lenders serve individuals or markets underserved by the traditional ba
19、nking system?So far, the evidence we have presented suggests that P2P credit is not systematically used by consumers to refi nance or consolidate their existing credit accounts. Rather, P2P credit is accompanied by increases in consumer debt beyond P2P borrowing. While some might see this evidence a
20、s a glass half empty and blame the P2P industry for contrib-uting to potentially unsustainable consumer debt, others might see it as a glass half full and argue that P2P lenders provide access to consumer fi nance to the underbanked US population. To evaluate this possibility, we fi rst use our matc
21、hed sample and statistically evaluate whether P2P credit is fl owing to underserved consumers. To do so, we compare access to traditional loans by P2P borrowers and matched non-P2P borrowers. We fi nd nothing to suggest that P2P borrow-ers are different from non-P2P borrowers. Our evidence indicates
22、 that P2P borrowers are unlikely to be cut off from traditional banking services, and they access these services Table 1. P2P and Non-P2P Borrowers Access to CreditSource: Authors calculations based on data from TransUnion (20072014).before and after obtaining P2P loans. We observe that P2P borrower
23、s obtain other credit from traditional banks at rates similar to non-P2P individuals. For example, as shown in table 1, 33.63 percent of P2P borrowers increase their credit card balances at the same time as they obtain a P2P loan. This fraction is 10 percentage points larger than that for non-P2P co
24、nsumers. Similarly, 10.5 percent 慲慲0%17.9%19.1% 20.4%11.2% 10.5% 10.0% 9.1% 7.2% 14.0% 20.2%25.2% 29.2%2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e购房贷款余额 信用卡贷款余额 其他消费贷款余额2012-2020年中国个人消费信贷结构10中国信用卡代偿发展驱动力分析 1中国信用卡代偿行业市场分析 2中国信用卡代偿行业案例 3中国信用卡代偿行业用户分析 4中国信用卡代偿行业发展趋势 5标准煤 34.8122 员工数量 人 97第二章 项目必要性
25、分析一、项目建设背景1、随着战略性新兴产业的进一步加速发展，顺应经济转型需要的新兴产业，正在成为中国经济蓄势前行的新动力。发展新兴产业能够完善国民泓域咨询MACRO/ 实木地板项目实施方案及投资分析经济产业体系，增加有效供给，在创造经济价值的同时又能促进经济发展。新兴产业大都为技术、资金、知识密集型产业，其发展能够转变经济增长方式，促进经济的可持续发展。此外，新兴产业又能为传统产业提供技术支持，有利于促进传统产业的升级改造，优化产业结构。2、投资项目在国家发展和改革委员会发布的产业结构调整指导目录（2011年本）（2013年修正）将项目产品制造列为鼓励类项目。投资项目符合中华人民共和国国民经济
26、和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要的要求，因此，符合国家产业发展政策和行业发展规划。认真落实中央“六稳”部署，消费提质扩容积极推进，新型信息消费创新活跃，绿色建材、高效节能技术装备推广应用加快，新能源汽车销量快速增长，制造业投资回升到较高水平。新修订的中小企业促进法贯彻实施扎实推进。稳妥应对中美经贸摩擦。预计全年，全国规模以上工业增加值增长6.3%左右。二、必要性分析1、振兴实体经济，事关我国经济社会发展全局。我国是个大国，必须发展实体经济，不断推进工业现代化、提高制造业水平，不能“脱实向虚”。应该说，我们是靠实体经济发展起来的，还要依靠实体经济走向未来。任何时候，实体经济都是我国发展的根基；没有
27、这个根基，我国经济非但走不远，而且难以在国际竞争中取胜。为此，建设现代化经济体系，必须把实体经济放到更加突出的位置抓实、抓好。婜稀(輀销翸輀専輀輀讀缁缀退螏頀h椀匂挃挃挃癸扺愀洀瀀愀洀瀀愀洀瀀瀀搀昀瀀椀挀最椀昀癸扺憖洀瀀瀀搀昀尀尀昀昀搀戀搀搀昀挀挀昀攀堀氀儀爀瀀氀氀娀瘀琀攀夀娀礀攀挀爀砀夀礀栀欀礀唀昀夀匀堀礀椀渀漀刀癸扺蝔扥搀昀挀戀愀攀昀挀葨N葨癸澀癸捔蝫癸澀癸捔蝫皍葨蠰擿繭呛慵煓葞桛扑卿蹛屝豞葏癓锰扭蠰噑扥蒗f襓蒋瑶筞苿瑎葞譠氠鹳譛腎蒉衶卿峿萠蒚骖葓乾鹭魛蒉叿葎vN號皘桎衷譥癸澀吀礀瀀攀礀漀甀爀琀攀砀琀愀猀猀椀洀瀀氀攀愀猀瀀漀猀猀椀戀氀攀吀礀瀀攀礀漀甀爀琀攀砀琀愀猀猀椀洀瀀氀攀愀猀瀀漀猀猀椀戀氀攀吀礀瀀攀礀漀甀爀琀攀砀琀愀猀猀椀洀瀀氀攀愀猀瀀漀猀猀椀戀氀攀一刀伀唀一刀嘀圀嘀唀嘀匀伀一一刀伀唀一刀嘀圀嘀唀嘀匀伀一倀一愀洀瀀堀唀吀嘀一刀伀唀一刀嘀圀嘀唀嘀匀伀一倀一愀洀瀀堀唀吀嘀伀一唀匀伀一癸马扸睎缰葎澀髿灙湥灣湥散遧髿瞕慵術炍湥澀灧罾İ桻盿蹞罎m驎瞕灙湥盿怀蔀慵慣蚉隘江塎华獙轎葭栀葏倀洀瀀漀爀琀愀渀琀攀礀倀攀爀猀漀渀倀腎象塔葡楒蹟葢v蜀穥蒂楣猀彭魒葟e蹛鱥讜楎佷蒕眀葥譙豞蹛N湥葭轎葭獥瞍祲葲躍驺葛屝蹵葫佐蒕豛幼琰邍瑥齢葒瘀葿敞絎恴载皖葔譫躚轎葭瑥葎齢癸扺絔睢橛鲌瑥恎湓吀伀倀萀鋿呎冀
