1、12月行业评级标配整体情况11-12月份车厂产量环比上升，零部件订单饱满；中长期角度，整车公司成长性不足，制约估值水平。零部件主题投资、转型逻辑。销量预期11月乘用车销量零售增速17%、批发增速24%，购置税减半、加大促销力度、年底补库存所致。新能源客车1月产销量将环比下滑，12月是股票卖点。选股逻辑智能汽车（无人驾驶、车联网、汽车电子）：12月16-18日，世界互联网大会，浙江乌镇；1月6-9日，国际消费电子展CES，美国拉斯维加斯；亚太、均胜、内配、金固、星宇。存在预期差的新能源汽车：松芝（通用五菱）、京威（五洲龙）、双林（新大洋）。汽车零部件：份额提升，松芝、星宇、天汽模、鸿图。外延并购
2、：隆鑫、双林、万丰、信质。2月标配中长期角度，整车公司成长性不足，制约估值水平。零部件的主题投资、转型逻辑。产业趋势主题：新能源汽车、智能汽车、后市场。1月狭义乘用车销量零售增速15.7%、批发增速11.6%，购置税减半政策效果延续、春节前车市旺季。新能源汽车1月产量同比增长144%、环比下降84%，补贴退坡、门槛提高、调查骗补。预计2月产量环比下降。智能汽车（无人驾驶、车联网、汽车电子）：2月13日，美国高速公路交通安全管理局称，Google无人驾驶汽车可以被视作司机，这是无人驾驶在法规上的重大进步。核心标的：亚太股份、均胜电子；其他标的：保千里、四维图新、星宇股份、金固股份。新能源汽车：比
3、亚迪（业绩兑现或超预期）、双林股份（配套吉利）。松芝股份（配套通用五菱、江淮）、京威股份（五洲龙客车）。汽车零部件：外延并购：双林股份、云意电气；市场份额提升，松芝股份、星宇股份、广东鸿图。9月10月标配，缺乏整体行情超配景气度下行，新车销售量价齐降，并逐渐向零部件传导，经销商不堪重负购置税减半刺激传统汽车消费新能源汽车政策、销量、业绩持续催化持续负增长，预期16年降幅扩大10月同比增速拐点强化非常悲观，乘用车龙头PE不足7倍个别零部件PE落在15-20倍价值区间低估值乘用车龙头新能源客车防御，低估值、高股息新能源、轻量化、国企改革主题WindWind资资讯讯指标名称中国中国中国中汽协:汽车销
4、量(月)中汽协:汽车销量(月)中汽协:汽车销量(月)销量:汽车:当月值销量:汽车:累计值销量:汽车:当月同比频率月月月单位辆万辆%指标IDS0105710S0031542S6114593时间区间2000-01:2016-012003-12:2016-012001-01:2016-01来源中国汽车工业协会中国汽车工业协会中国汽车工业协会更新时间2016-02-222016-02-192016-02-222000-01125,272.000.000.002000-02113,367.000.000.002000-03205,295.000.000.002000-04193,399.000.000.
5、002000-05183,333.000.000.002000-06171,152.000.000.002000-07153,431.000.000.002000-08173,799.000.000.002000-09193,029.000.000.002000-10171,034.000.000.002000-11187,497.000.000.002000-12215,608.000.000.002001-01121,103.000.00-3.332001-02184,596.000.0062.832001-03245,686.000.0019.672001-04240,773.000.0
6、024.502001-05199,935.000.009.062001-06193,678.000.0013.162001-07177,082.000.0015.412001-08194,222.000.0011.752001-09212,928.000.0010.312001-10182,814.000.006.892001-11196,795.000.004.962001-12208,930.000.00-3.102002-01187,120.000.0054.512002-02159,040.000.00-13.842002-03291,339.000.0018.582002-04339
7、,553.000.0041.032002-05294,014.000.0047.052002-06267,416.000.0038.072002-07261,209.000.0047.512002-08271,537.000.0039.812002-09308,763.000.0045.012002-10283,149.000.0054.882002-11295,287.000.0050.052002-12284,714.000.0036.272003-01323,154.000.0072.702003-02261,496.000.0064.422003-03390,078.000.0033.
8、892003-04382,228.000.0012.572003-05317,826.000.008.102003-06349,779.000.0030.802003-07336,341.000.0028.762003-08350,749.000.0029.172003-09394,973.000.0027.922003-10360,417.000.0027.292003-11405,846.000.0037.442003-12456,451.00439.0860.322004-01304,075.0030.41-5.902004-02430,057.0073.4364.461月2月3月4月5
9、月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%201320142015汽车销量同比增速%2004-03542,598.00127.7739.102004-04497,896.00177.5730.262004-05396,169.00217.1824.652004-06380,097.00255.368.672004-07345,950.00289.812.862004-08382,260.00328.008.982004-09439,099.00372.9311.172004-10404,709.00413.4012.292004-11451,61
10、9.00458.3311.282004-12486,651.00507.116.622005-01366,053.0036.6120.382005-02318,588.0068.45-25.922005-03582,434.00126.667.342005-04536,732.00180.357.802005-05466,272.00227.1017.702005-06517,041.00279.2436.032005-07433,198.00322.4025.222005-08418,722.00364.019.542005-09495,959.00413.6212.952005-10451
11、,904.00458.8311.662005-11549,603.00513.7621.702005-12620,885.00575.8227.582006-01530,077.0053.0144.812006-02479,953.00101.1350.652006-03721,464.00173.3223.872006-04672,947.00240.6725.382006-05567,466.00297.4321.702006-06557,597.00353.527.842006-07467,086.00400.617.822006-08528,087.00453.4226.122006-
12、09634,993.00517.0028.032006-10576,348.00576.5827.542006-11688,962.00645.4825.362006-12758,578.00721.6022.182007-01717,102.0071.7135.282007-02553,381.00127.0015.302007-03847,177.00212.3717.422007-04808,701.00293.3620.172007-05713,595.00364.6225.752007-06726,879.00437.3830.362007-07640,958.00501.3637.
13、222007-08671,642.00568.5327.182007-09772,810.00645.8021.702007-10692,307.00715.0320.122007-11800,944.00795.1216.252007-12839,295.00879.1510.642008-01859,388.0085.9419.842008-02663,544.00152.3019.912008-031,056,573.00257.9624.722008-04922,634.00350.1514.092008-05835,538.00433.7117.092008-06836,814.00
14、518.2215.122008-07665,854.00584.903.882008-08629,017.00647.78-6.352008-09751,531.00722.92-2.752008-10715,665.00794.483.372008-11685,154.00862.98-14.462008-12741,594.00938.05-11.642009-01735,865.0073.59-14.372009-02827,550.00156.3624.722009-031,109,734.00267.885.032009-041,153,082.00383.1924.982009-0
15、51,119,716.00495.6834.012009-061,142,076.00609.8836.482009-071,085,558.00718.4463.032009-081,138,498.00833.1381.002009-091,331,809.00966.2777.212009-101,226,319.001,089.1471.352009-111,337,694.001,223.0495.242009-121,413,642.001,364.4890.622010-011,664,187.00166.42126.152010-021,211,509.00287.5746.4
16、02010-031,735,151.00461.0656.362010-041,555,172.00616.5934.872010-051,438,358.00760.4128.462010-061,412,078.00901.6123.642010-071,244,038.001,026.0214.602010-081,322,282.001,158.2616.142010-091,556,718.001,313.8416.892010-101,538,632.001,467.7025.472010-111,697,041.001,639.5426.862010-121,666,651.00
17、1,806.1917.902011-011,894,336.00189.4413.832011-021,266,998.00315.544.582011-031,828,479.00498.385.382011-041,552,016.00653.39-0.202011-051,382,779.00791.62-3.862011-061,435,935.00932.521.692011-071,275,302.001,060.182.512011-081,381,081.001,198.364.452011-091,646,086.001,363.355.742011-101,524,822.
18、001,516.06-0.902011-111,655,958.001,681.56-2.422011-121,689,614.001,850.511.382012-011,389,788.00138.98-26.632012-021,567,061.00295.4323.682012-031,838,572.00479.270.552012-041,624,412.00641.754.662012-051,607,195.00802.3516.232012-061,577,508.00959.819.862012-071,379,366.001,097.948.162012-081,495,
19、227.001,247.478.262012-091,617,358.001,409.23-1.752012-101,605,980.001,570.075.322012-111,791,039.001,749.328.162012-121,809,904.001,930.647.122013-012,034,488.00203.4546.392013-021,354,619.00338.91-13.562013-032,035,171.00542.4510.692013-041,841,975.00726.6213.382013-051,761,758.00902.819.812013-06
20、1,754,119.001,078.2211.192013-071,516,619.001,229.869.932013-081,648,902.001,394.7610.282013-091,935,820.001,588.3119.662013-101,932,684.001,781.5820.342013-112,043,892.001,986.0114.122013-122,134,182.002,198.4117.922014-012,156,355.00215.645.992014-021,596,414.00375.2917.842014-032,169,085.00592.23
21、6.582014-042,004,253.00792.518.812014-051,911,203.00983.818.502014-061,845,847.001,168.355.232014-071,618,144.001,330.176.712014-081,715,563.001,501.734.042014-091,983,589.001,700.092.472014-101,987,178.001,898.812.822014-112,090,883.002,107.912.302014-122,410,089.002,349.1912.932015-012,319,611.002
22、31.967.562015-021,593,301.00391.29-0.222015-032,240,556.00615.303.292015-041,994,507.00814.48-0.492015-051,903,774.001,004.62-0.402015-061,803,090.001,185.03-2.312015-071,503,017.001,335.33-7.122015-081,664,489.001,501.72-2.982015-092,024,788.001,705.652.082015-102,221,565.001,927.8111.792015-112,50
23、8,764.002,178.6619.992015-122,785,513.002,459.7615.392016-012,500,570.00250.067.72中国中汽协:汽车销量(月)销量:汽车:累计同比月%S00315432003-12:2016-01中国汽车工业协会汽车同比2016-02-1920102011201220132014201520160.002015/1/1126%14%-27%46%6%7.6%7.7%0.002015/2/146%5%24%-14%18%-0.2%0.002015/3/156%5%1%11%7%3.3%0.002015/4/135%0%5%13%9%
24、-0.5%0.002015/5/128%-4%16%10%9%-0.4%0.002015/6/124%2%10%11%5%-2.3%0.002015/7/115%3%8%10%7%-7.1%0.002015/8/116%4%8%10%4%-3.0%0.002015/9/117%6%-2%20%2%2.1%0.002015/10/125%-1%5%20%3%11.8%0.002015/11/127%-2%8%14%2%20.0%0.002015/12/118%1%7%18%13%15.4%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.
25、000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.0034.21-7.3423.641月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%201320142015汽车销量同比增速%28.9828.6227.5724.1520.5719.2018.3617.5916.8115.5020.68-6.94-1.161.574.579.3511.2710.6110.1211.0412.0713.5444.6247.7536.8533
26、.4830.8426.7124.2924.5625.0125.6925.4925.1334.2725.0422.1721.4622.0323.3124.7124.9524.4624.0223.1921.8419.8319.9221.4719.3618.9118.5216.6613.9411.9411.118.526.70-14.312.703.889.4314.2917.6923.3829.1834.2437.7142.3946.15124.0084.0071.7860.5153.2547.6742.6539.0235.9734.7634.0532.3713.819.718.085.954.0
27、63.353.223.333.623.152.562.45-26.39-5.96-3.40-1.331.702.933.564.103.373.564.004.3346.3814.7213.1813.2312.5612.3412.0211.8112.7013.4713.5313.875.9910.739.189.078.978.368.157.677.046.586.146.867.564.253.902.772.111.430.390.000.311.513.344.687.72WindWind资资讯讯指标名称中国中国中国中国中国中国中汽协:乘用车销量:当月(月)中汽协:乘用车销量:当月(月
28、)中汽协:乘用车销量:当月(月)中汽协:乘用车销量:当月(月)中汽协:乘用车销量:当月(月)中汽协:乘用车销量:当月(月)销量:乘用车:当月值销量:乘用车:基本型乘用车(轿车):当月值销量:乘用车:多功能乘用车(MPV):当月值销量:乘用车:运动型多用途乘用车(SUV):当月值销量:乘用车:交叉型:当月值销量:乘用车:当月同比频率月月月月月月单位辆辆辆辆辆%指标IDS0105711S0105718S0105719S0105720S0105721S6114596时间区间2005-01:2016-012000-01:2016-012005-01:2016-012005-01:2016-012005
29、-01:2016-012006-01:2016-01来源中国汽车工业协会中国汽车工业协会中国汽车工业协会中国汽车工业协会中国汽车工业协会中国汽车工业协会更新时间2016-02-222016-02-222016-02-222016-02-222016-02-222016-02-222000-010.0040,754.000.000.000.000.002000-020.0028,387.000.000.000.000.002000-030.0049,821.000.000.000.000.002000-040.0049,565.000.000.000.000.002000-050.0050,16
30、0.000.000.000.000.002000-060.0053,574.000.000.000.000.002000-070.0050,186.000.000.000.000.002000-080.0058,037.000.000.000.000.002000-090.0055,907.000.000.000.000.002000-100.0050,632.000.000.000.000.002000-110.0057,621.000.000.000.000.002000-120.0067,889.000.000.000.000.002001-010.0036,864.000.000.00
31、0.000.002001-020.0050,939.000.000.000.000.002001-030.0063,277.000.000.000.000.002001-040.0069,573.000.000.000.000.002001-050.0057,222.000.000.000.000.002001-060.0063,027.000.000.000.000.002001-070.0064,145.000.000.000.000.002001-080.0070,414.000.000.000.000.002001-090.0066,774.000.000.000.000.002001
32、-100.0052,017.000.000.000.000.002001-110.0058,255.000.000.000.000.002001-120.0064,683.000.000.000.000.002002-010.0055,590.000.000.000.000.002002-020.0050,740.000.000.000.000.002002-030.0083,169.000.000.000.000.002002-040.0096,086.000.000.000.000.002002-050.0088,885.000.000.000.000.002002-060.0094,65
33、1.000.000.000.000.002002-070.00103,283.000.000.000.000.002002-080.00106,876.000.000.000.000.002002-090.00119,768.000.000.000.000.002002-100.00104,915.000.000.000.000.002002-110.00112,521.000.000.000.000.002002-120.00105,362.000.000.000.000.002003-010.00141,194.000.000.000.000.002003-020.00100,360.00
34、0.000.000.000.002003-030.00138,715.000.000.000.000.002003-040.00156,140.000.000.000.000.002003-050.00146,753.000.000.000.000.002003-060.00156,564.000.000.000.000.002003-070.00156,604.000.000.000.000.002003-080.00158,646.000.000.000.000.002003-090.00183,848.000.000.000.000.002003-100.00166,384.000.00
35、0.000.000.002003-110.00191,261.000.000.000.000.002003-120.00227,348.000.000.000.000.002004-010.00155,490.000.000.000.000.002004-020.00184,726.000.000.000.000.002004-030.00226,232.000.000.000.000.002004-040.00220,071.000.000.000.000.002004-050.00177,657.000.000.000.000.002004-060.00167,282.000.000.00
36、0.000.002004-070.00169,953.000.000.000.000.002004-080.00170,344.000.000.000.000.002004-090.00194,095.000.000.000.000.002004-100.00178,567.000.000.000.000.002004-110.00202,839.000.000.000.000.002004-120.00247,496.000.000.000.000.002005-01243,053.00152,925.007,208.0011,973.0070,947.000.002005-02213,53
37、4.00133,782.006,897.008,300.0064,555.000.002005-03355,752.00226,788.0015,257.0014,349.0099,358.000.002005-04337,033.00235,705.0015,503.0015,319.0070,506.000.002005-05317,390.00221,263.0012,412.0015,204.0068,511.000.002005-06375,472.00258,611.0015,684.0017,306.0083,871.000.002005-07315,648.00235,830.
38、0012,952.0018,141.0048,725.000.002005-08292,435.00215,177.0013,130.0018,844.0045,284.000.002005-09354,040.00254,503.0013,824.0020,742.0064,971.000.002005-10319,885.00237,269.0013,829.0016,232.0052,555.000.002005-11393,615.00285,669.0013,669.0016,433.0077,844.000.002005-12455,767.00331,036.0017,931.0
39、022,949.0083,851.000.002006-01418,942.00295,503.0013,015.0014,831.0095,593.0072.372006-02344,493.00234,936.0011,936.0014,165.0083,456.0061.332006-03485,957.00324,869.0021,407.0032,368.00107,313.0036.602006-04468,438.00350,877.0015,321.0018,640.0083,600.0038.992006-05393,613.00297,054.0015,277.0016,3
40、69.0064,913.0024.022006-06396,433.00300,616.0017,810.0014,813.0063,194.005.582006-07332,587.00263,910.0010,911.0014,569.0043,197.005.372006-08377,953.00297,389.0013,397.0016,837.0050,330.0029.242006-09455,701.00345,770.0017,831.0020,304.0071,796.0028.712006-10409,962.00303,652.0014,001.0018,525.0073
41、,784.0028.162006-11499,655.00373,882.0016,599.0020,588.0088,586.0026.942006-12564,812.00423,149.0022,917.0026,592.0092,154.0023.932007-01552,518.00414,479.0018,337.0023,048.0096,654.0031.882007-02417,651.00297,756.0013,690.0019,240.0086,965.0021.242007-03567,000.00409,400.0021,127.0029,309.00107,164
42、.0016.682007-04545,824.00411,790.0020,514.0028,582.0084,938.0016.522007-05488,490.00367,992.0015,923.0028,014.0076,561.0024.102007-06511,934.00384,435.0017,354.0030,263.0079,882.0029.142007-07457,162.00355,058.0017,438.0029,255.0055,411.0037.462007-08481,342.00372,215.0019,024.0029,577.0060,526.0027
43、.352007-09560,976.00425,933.0021,860.0034,468.0078,715.0023.102007-10496,928.00364,646.0017,747.0030,903.0083,632.0021.212007-11582,750.00437,432.0020,608.0036,311.0088,399.0016.632007-12635,346.00485,900.0022,074.0038,409.0088,963.0012.492008-01661,938.00501,064.0017,082.0030,547.00113,245.0019.802
44、008-02488,864.00357,139.0015,435.0028,316.0087,974.0017.052008-03700,505.00515,741.0022,739.0043,419.00118,606.0023.552008-04604,920.00444,586.0020,282.0039,478.00100,574.0010.832008-05564,637.00415,230.0017,696.0037,888.0093,823.0015.592008-06588,361.00433,599.0018,140.0045,178.0091,444.0014.932008
45、-07488,219.00360,846.0014,709.0036,290.0076,374.006.792008-08451,299.00344,607.0013,206.0035,061.0058,425.00-6.242008-09552,808.00415,986.0015,018.0037,000.0084,804.00-1.462008-10538,457.00409,605.0014,720.0037,336.0076,796.008.362008-11522,843.00389,560.0014,437.0034,997.0083,849.00-10.282008-12584
46、,609.00452,434.0013,930.0040,599.0077,646.00-7.992009-01610,596.00439,168.0011,899.0030,212.00129,317.00-7.762009-02607,299.00427,095.0014,634.0031,636.00133,934.0024.232009-03772,353.00545,981.0020,175.0040,563.00165,634.0010.262009-04830,974.00591,497.0019,461.0048,379.00171,637.0037.372009-05829,
47、071.00591,261.0017,500.0047,661.00172,649.0046.832009-06872,894.00640,563.0018,812.0053,341.00160,178.0048.362009-07832,596.00601,491.0017,603.0058,405.00155,097.0070.542009-08858,278.00629,385.0020,207.0060,463.00148,223.0090.182009-09 1,015,069.00734,609.0026,442.0069,507.00184,511.0083.622009-109
48、46,463.00681,600.0023,202.0066,527.00175,134.0075.772009-11 1,036,422.00754,201.0027,727.0071,426.00183,068.0098.232009-12 1,103,348.00823,787.0031,292.0079,374.00168,895.0088.732010-01 1,315,990.00930,254.0039,153.0094,359.00252,224.00115.532010-02942,942.00623,065.0025,200.0070,327.00224,350.0055.
49、272010-03 1,264,958.00849,724.0038,239.00103,961.00273,034.0063.782010-04 1,110,874.00759,789.0038,503.00103,958.00208,624.0033.682010-05 1,043,220.00720,062.0033,708.00103,084.00186,366.0025.832010-06 1,042,818.00704,884.0034,534.00111,397.00192,003.0019.472010-07946,172.00655,054.0031,046.00109,65
50、2.00150,420.0013.642010-08 1,018,977.00710,714.0033,754.00117,294.00157,215.0018.722010-09 1,211,428.00850,766.0040,335.00125,034.00195,293.0019.342010-10 1,203,174.00835,199.0039,723.00119,548.00208,704.0027.122010-11 1,339,756.00933,897.0042,115.00132,757.00230,987.0029.272010-12 1,308,575.00920,7
